LEBANON TRIBUNAL: DRAFT UNSCR DOES NOT YET HAVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L USUN NEW YORK 000411

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2017
TAGS: PREL PTER UNSC SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON TRIBUNAL: DRAFT UNSCR DOES NOT YET HAVE
NINE CONFIRMED VOTES IN NEW YORK

REF: USUN 408

Classified By: Ambassador Alejandro D. Wolff, per 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) P-3 PermReps, joined by Slovakia, agreed mid-afternoon
May 24 that we do not currently have nine confirmed votes in
favor of the draft Chapter VII resolution on the Special
Tribunal for Lebanon. (Although USUN subsequently learned
that we have support from a majority of Security Council
capitals, we have yet to confirm this in New York.) They
nevertheless decided to introduce the draft during UNSC
consultations on May 24, and following that discussion,
assess when to put the resolution in blue and schedule a
vote. They also agreed that we would need to make further
changes to the text beyond a "sunrise" clause stipulating
that the resolution will become effective on a specified date
after May 31 unless Lebanon has ratified the agreement and
statute by that time. France proposed modifying the
operative paragraph that would establish the tribunal as
follows: the Council would "decide that the parties shall
implement the documents attached to the resolution" (i.e.,
the tribunal agreement and statute agreed to by the UN and
Lebanese government). The P-3 agreed to send the French
formulation back to capitals for review. USUN noted that,
based on contacts with the Panamanian and Peruvian PermReps,
this modification may not be sufficient to win the support of
Latin American delegations, who continue to prefer a
formulation that the Council would "decide to establish" a
tribunal. In response, Ambassador de la Sabliere expressed
concern that Russia might veto a resolution with that
formulation.


2. (C) After bilateral consultations on May 24, USUN assesses
that the P-3 draft resolution currently enjoys confirmed
support in New York from seven delegations: U.S., UK, France,
Belgium, Slovakia, Ghana, and Italy. The Ghanaian PR told
Ambassador Wolff that Ghana would support the draft if it
comes up for vote. The Italian PermRep advised Ambassador
Khalilzad that Italy can agree to support the resolution with
a "sunrise" clause. Although the Congolese President
reportedly assured SYG Ban that Congo would support the draft
resolution, the Congolese PermRep told Lebanese Foreign
Policy Advisor Mohamad Chatah that he could not currently
support the text. Panama and Peru continued to express
strong legal concerns about the resolution (reftels) and
implied they plan to abstain if the draft comes up for a
vote. Russia, South Africa, and Qatar raised objections to
the Chapter VII reference in the text. Russia also said it
would have amendments to propose during consultations on May

24. The Russian legal expert told his British counterpart
that rushing towards a vote could provoke Russia into a
"technical veto" (i.e. due to lack of time to consult on the
text rather than substantive objections). Separately, SYG
Ban told Ambassador Khalilzad that he would call the
Presidents of Panama and Peru to urge them to support the
draft text.
KHALILZAD