Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07USNATO589
2007-11-02 17:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Mission USNATO
Cable title:  

IRAQ DEPLOYMENT REQUIREMENT SURVEY: NO UNSCR, NO

Tags:  MARR MOPS NATO PREL IZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0005
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNO #0589/01 3061725
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 021725Z NOV 07
FM USMISSION USNATO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1346
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L USNATO 000589 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE PASS TO EUR/RPM: CDAVY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2017
TAGS: MARR MOPS NATO PREL IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQ DEPLOYMENT REQUIREMENT SURVEY: NO UNSCR, NO
NTM-I?

REF: SECSTATE 150164

Classified By: CDA Richard G. Olson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L USNATO 000589

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE PASS TO EUR/RPM: CDAVY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2017
TAGS: MARR MOPS NATO PREL IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQ DEPLOYMENT REQUIREMENT SURVEY: NO UNSCR, NO
NTM-I?

REF: SECSTATE 150164

Classified By: CDA Richard G. Olson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: We assess that the NATO Training Mission-Iraq
(NTM-I) would be unlikely to continue without the cover of a
relevant United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR)
mandate. It is possible that the mission could continue with
a non-Chapter VII mandate, but without some form of follow-on
UNSCR we believe Allies would be unable to reach consensus on
continuing the mission. NATO Allies have explicitly linked
NTM-I to UNSCR 1546,s request to international and regional
organizations to contribute assistance to the Multinational
Force and the sad reality here is that the loss of a UN
umbrella would give some reluctant Allies a pretext for
killing NTM-I. END SUMMARY.

Legal Issues:
--------------

2. (C) Per REFTEL,s request, we have not consulted directly
with NATO,s Legal Advisor or with individual member states
with regard to whether Allies would agree to continue NTM-I
minus a Chapter VII United Nations Security Council mandate.
We assess, however, that many NATO member states would refuse
to endorse a NATO operation without some form of a UN
mandate, effectively blocking consensus on moving forward
with the mission. Indeed, NATO,s decision to act in Iraq
came only after United Nations Security Council Resolution
(UNSCR) 1546 was passed, calling specifically for
international and regional organizations to assist the
Multinational Force. At each stage of NTM-I,s development,
NATO has made clear that its mission is in accordance with
this and other relevant UNSCRs. While it may be possible to
continue the mission if a follow-on non-Article VII UNSCR
were passed, we believe it would be impossible to continue
NTM-I if no relevant UNSCR existed ) a situation that seems
possible in each of the four scenarios described in reftel.


3. (C) We further assess that even some Allies who take the
position that an UNSCR is not legally required will find it

politically impossible to continue to support NTM-I if it
does not have the UN,s imprimatur. Support for the war in
Iraq has always been difficult to find in much of Europe, but
the UN mandate did give willing governments a political fig
leaf to hide behind. It also provided us the leverage with
which we could wrench tacit, albeit grudging, support from
reluctant Allies. Again, depending on its wording, a
non-Chapter VII UNSCR may still provide us this leverage.
But if there is no UNSCR in 2009, we anticipate that
political support for the mission will atrophy ) with
governments increasingly arguing that NATO should focus its
efforts on its Afghanistan mission.


4. (C) Comment: These legal and political concerns relate
only to NTM-I, an official NATO operation. They do not
necessarily apply to the possibility that NATO will at some
point agree to open up its partnership tools to Iraq; indeed,
they further strengthen the argument that it may perhaps be
time to move NATO,s relationship beyond NTM-I. We will send
our ideas on the possibility of opening up such partnership
tools septel.

ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO
--------------

5. (C) Scenario D is feasible if the U.S. can convince NTM-I
contributing countries to commit forces to its command. As
noted below, 9 of the 15 NTM-I contributing nations have
combat troops in the Iraqi theater, and presumably, if these
countries agreed to continue contributing troops, even under
U.S. command, then they would be amenable to training Iraqis.
NTM-I would cease to exist, but its mission would continue
with a smaller number of nations operating outside a NATO or
UN framework. We defer to posts in those 9 contributing
nations to assess whether these Allies would continue to
contribute to the Iraq mission, including training, without a
UNSCR.

NTM-I: An Overview
--------------

6. (C) Along with the U.S., there are currently 15 other
nations engaged in NTM-I, together contributing 183 troops.
Those countries marked with stars (*) have additional combat
troops in Iraq.

COUNTRY NUMBER OF TRAINERS
Bulgaria* 1
Czech Republic* 3
Denmark* 13
Estonia* 1
Hungary 21
Italy 73
Lithuania* 4
Netherlands 7
Poland* 2
Portugal 6
Romania* 2
Slovenia 2
Turkey 2
UK* 22
Ukraine* 3
U.S. 21


7. (C) To date, NTM-I has trained over 4500 Iraqi Security
Forces in-country, and another 900 outside-of-the-country.
The Iraq Joint Staff College has been re-established and
the Iraqi Training and Doctrine Command stood up. On 27
October, NTM-I began Gendarmerie-type training for 450
Iraqi Police Officers at Camp Dublin.

OLSON