CROATIAN PM SANADER RECEIVES POSITIVE SIGNALS FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 USNATO 000360

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO HR
SUBJECT: CROATIAN PM SANADER RECEIVES POSITIVE SIGNALS FROM
ALLIES ON CHANCES FOR NATO INVITATION IN 2008

REF: SECSTATE 77485

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Richard G. Olson for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Allies indicated strong support for
Croatia's NATO candidacy during a June 6 meeting of the North
Atlantic Council (NAC) with Croatian PM Sanader, but warned
that Croatia should not lose momentum in its reform efforts.
Allies focused on the need for Croatia to continue to make
progress in raising public support for NATO membership,
judicial reforms and ICTY cooperation, defense reforms,
refugee returns and property restitution, and mechanisms for
handling NATO classified information. Sanader told Allies
Croatia was making progress in its campaign to raise public
support for NATO membership and was committed to moving ahead
on all reforms since he saw no alternative for Croatia and
the region than eventual NATO and EU membership. Ambassador
Nuland emphasized U.S. support for Croatia's candidacy,
praised Croatia's contributions to NATO operations and urged
Croatia to continue to mentor Albania and Macedonia in their
own NATO bids. END SUMMARY.

SANADER CROATIA'S PROGRESS GOOD FOR THE REGION


2. (C) Addressing a June 6 meeting of the NAC to review
Croatia's progress under NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP),
PM Sanader recalled that he last visited NATO in January
2006, shortly after the arrest and transfer to the ICTY of
General Ante Gotovina. He stressed that today Croatia
remained fully committed to ICTY cooperation and noted the
ICTY had decided to transfer two war crimes cases to Croatia
for trial, important evidence of the trust of the
international community in Croatia's judiciary.


3. (C) Sanader expressed appreciation for the encouraging
signals on NATO enlargement from the 2006 NATO Riga Summit
Declaration, which he said motivated Croatia to continue
reforms. Sanader said he believed Croatia's progress toward
Euro-Atlantic integration sent a strong message to the region
and he thanked the NAC for the Riga Summit decision to admit
Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina to Partnership
for Peace.


4. (C) Sanader pointed to polls conducted in May indicating
public support in Croatia for joining NATO had risen to 52
percent, up from 36 percent at the end of last year. He
believed the increase was due to the Croatian government's
communication strategy that involved all the senior
leadership, positive messages from NATO at Riga that made
membership seem a realistic possibility, and the strong
showing of the Serb Radical Party in Serbia in recent
elections.


5. (C) On Kosovo, Sanader reiterated Croatia's support for
the Ahtisaari plan. Croatia would adhere to the EU position
on Kosovo and not take any "unilateral positions." He
stressed that Bosnia and Herzegovina must remain unified,
even if Kosovo was granted independence. There could not be
any partition in BiH or independence referendum in Republika
Srpska. BiH should remain a strong and unique state where
the three peoples have equal status, a principle that should
be maintained in any future constitutional reforms.

ALLIES ENCOURAGING, WARN TO KEEP UP MOMENTUM


6. (C) All Allies (with the exception of Luxembourg) took
the floor, sending many encouraging signals to Croatia on its
prospects for receiving an invitation at the 2008 NATO Summit
in Bucharest to join the Alliance. Hungarian Perm Rep
Martinusz said there was "every reason to be optimistic"
about an invitation at the Summit. Czech Perm Rep Fule said
Croatia was the leading candidate to receive a membership
invitation, but the final decision would be based on
performance. Romanian Perm Rep Ducaru said it looked forward
to having Croatia invited into NATO at the next Summit.
Lithuanian Perm Rep Linkevicius said the successful
completion of the next MAP cycle should lead to an invitation
in 2008. French Perm Rep Duque expressed the hope Croatia
would be able to join the Alliance as soon as possible.


7. (C) Allies also sent a consistent message on the need to
maintain momentum in reforms, especially increasing public
support for NATO membership, judicial reforms, refugee
returns, protection of NATO classified materials, and defense
budgeting. UK Perm Rep Eldon noted NATO invitations in 2008
"are not guaranteed". Norwegian Perm Rep Traavik said Norway
would like to see Croatia in the Alliance as soon a possible,
but added that invitations were not a foregone conclusion and
must be earned.


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8. (C) Ambassador Nuland noted it was no secret how much
the President wanted to invite Croatia to join the Alliance.
She said the only real risk for Croatia was losing momentum
in its reforms efforts, specifically increasing public
support, completing the refugee return process, and reforming
the judiciary. She praised the government's public
information campaign, but urged Croatia to ensure its polling
was rigorous and unbiased to bolster its credibility. She
commended Croatia for its contributions to NATO operations,
especially ISAF where its forces serve without caveats and
with costs fully covered. She encouraged Croatia to continue
to mentor Macedonia and Albania in their efforts to meet NATO
membership standards and to complete preparations for
handling NATO classified information, an issue other new
Allies had struggled to complete before accession.

PRAISE FOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO OPERATIONS, MIXED REVIEWS ON
DEFENSE


9. (C) Croatia was praised by a majority of the Perm Reps
for its contributions to peace support operations. General
Hennault, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, noted he
had received a positive impression of Croatia's military
during his visit there in October 2006 and was impressed with
the quality of Croatian soldiers deployed to ISAF. The UK
welcomed Croatia's decision to purchase two new AN-2
transport aircraft, and suggested they do more in this area.


10. (C) Croatia also heard that defense reforms needed to
be intensified and sustained from Greece and the Netherlands,
specifically in the area of improving living standards for
troops. Both Poland and Italy felt Croatia had more to do in
defense efforts, while Slovenia noted they needed to avoid
spending resources on areas that did not contribute to the
military's overall strength (likely a reference to Croatia's
plans to purchase fighter aircraft). The Czech Republic
asked whether Zagreb intended to amend the constitutional
requirement of a two-thirds parliamentary majority to deploy
troops abroad. PM Sanader commented that Croatia would amend
the Constitution next year to address that issue. He also
said he could guarantee the government would raise the level
of defense spending to 2 percent of GDP by 2010 as planned.

PUBLIC OPINION


11. (C) Sanader expressed his appreciation of Allies'
positive comments and said NATO's support and encouragement
was important psychologically, since support for NATO
increases among Croatians the more they feel welcomed by
NATO. He acknowledged different polls were producing
divergent results, but noted there were some with even higher
levels of support than the 52 percent he cited. In any case,
there was a clear trend of increasing support for NATO. He
added, "I will be fighting for NATO because I believe it is
the only course for Croatia and the region."

JUDICIAL REFORM


12. (C) Sanader said almost all measures in the
government's 2005 judicial reform strategy had been
implemented. The backlog of court cases had dropped 36
percent from the previous year, cases would now be assigned
to judges on a random basis, and every court would be on the
internet by 2008 allowing citizens to check the progress of
any case on-line. In addition, the cadastre and land
registry was now available on the internet. Croatia had
instituted a one-stop shop for business registration, making
it easier for entrepreneurs to open new businesses and
reducing the opportunities for corruption.

REFUGEE RETURNS, NATO CLASSIFIED, MENTORING THE A-3


13. (C) On refugee returns and relations with minorities,
Sanader noted his governing coalition included seven minority
members of the Sabor who have remained in the coalition for
the three and a half years his government had been in power,
a mark of satisfaction with his policy toward minorities.
Regarding protection of NATO classified, Sanader said the
required three pieces of legislation would soon be put into
Parliamentary procedure and he expected the Sabor to adopt
them this summer during its current session.


14. (C) In response to Ambassador Nuland's comment on the
need to mentor the other members of the A-3, Sanader said
Croatia would continue to help them. He said he would commit
himself and the country in his June 10 meeting with President
Bush in Tirana and "will do it not only because of our hopes
for an invitation but because I believe strong cooperation is
important for all in the region and would do it even without
NATO and the EU."


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15. (C) In response to the Czech Republic's question on the
possibility of a referendum on NATO membership, Sanader said
the constitution did not require one. It was possible,
however, that some opposition parties might demand during the
election campaign that there be a referendum. Sanader said
he would attack any party that made that demand as being
against NATO.


16. (C) Sanader closed by saying the meeting with Allies
had been very encouraging for him and it had contributed even
more to his personal engagement and that of his government.
NULAND