AMBASSADOR ADDRESSES IRAN CONFERENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 UNVIE VIENNA 000432

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (SUBJECT LINE)

DEPT FOR NEA, IO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2017
TAGS: PREL IAEAK IR
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR ADDRESSES IRAN CONFERENCE

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Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte, Reasons 1.5 b, d


1. (C) Summary : Ambassador Schulte delivered the keynote
speech at a July 6-8 conference on Iran in Liechtenstein and
addressed criticism of U.S. policy on Iran,s nuclear
program. He defended P5 Plus 1 demands for a suspension of
uranium enrichment as a starting point for negotiations.
Also in attendance, Iranian Deputy FM Araqchi revisited
well-worn Iranian themes, though he distanced himself
slightly from Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad outside of his
formal remarks. All participants looked to U.S.-Iranian
talks on Iraq as a confidence building measure. Indeed, many
argued that movement on Iraq was a prerequisite to any
progress on the nuclear front. Araqchi told a third party
that Iran would appreciate a credible US denial that it is
not fomenting unrest among ethnic and other groups in Iran.
End Summary.


2. (U) Ambassador Schulte addressed a July 6-8 conference on
Iran hosted by the Liechtenstein Institute for Self
Determination and the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton
University. Other notable attendees included Iranian Deputy
FM Araqchi, former German FM Fischer, former Austrian and
Swiss Ambassadors to Iran, former Saudi Ambassador to the US
Prince Turki al-Faisal, and academics, think tank scholars,
and former US policymakers. The conference focused on the
domestic situation in Iran, regional implications of Iran,s
nuclear activities, Iran,s nuclear ambitions, and ideas for
solving the &crisis8 over Iran,s nuclear activities.
Ambassador Schulte gave a keynote address that discussed
Iran,s nuclear ambitions and the status of Iran,s
cooperation with the IAEA.


3. (SBU) Several scholars made strong arguments that Iran,s
focus on nuclear technology, especially in the face of
current international opposition, made little economic sense.
One participant noted that a study cited by Araqchi that had
stipulated nuclear power would be necessary for Iran,s
electricity needs was unfounded today. Although many
countries, including Iran, started nuclear power programs
decades ago because it was thought to be more cost-efficient,
governments have since discovered that the costs of nuclear
power occur at the end of reactor life rather than at the
front end of a nuclear power program. She argued that the
natural gas Iran flares off alone could provide Iran
electricity for 50 years. Thus, if Iran was really after the
provision of electricity, it has other, more cost-efficient
options.


4. (SBU) A number of participants were critical of what they
saw as the US-driven precondition that Iran suspend
enrichment activities prior to negotiations. The Ambassador
reminded participants that this is a P5 1 strategy and not a
US strategy and that it is a lack of confidence that has led
the Security Council to make suspension a requirement. An
Iranian-American scholar from a Washington think tank
defended the P5 1 precondition. He argued that dropping the
requirement now would be perceived in Tehran as the result of
Iran,s strategy of non-cooperation and would strengthen the
position of the hardliners.


5. (SBU) Araqchi,s keynote address revisited similar Iranian
themes of Iran,s rights under the NPT, its growing
electricity demands, its need for a self-sufficient nuclear
fuel production capability, its willingness to sit down to
the negotiating table without preconditions, and that Iran is
not pursuing nuclear weapons. He claimed that nuclear weapons
would not help Iran because if Iran used one bomb against
Israel, Israel would use hundreds of bombs against Iran.
During the discussion, Araqchi distanced himself slightly
from Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad and his rhetoric. He said
that Ahmadi-Nejad,s &wiping Israel off the map8 comment is
completely unrelated to the nuclear issue and that it is not
true in the literal sense. He then said that &maybe we don't
like Ahmadi-Nejad, but he was elected democratically.8 He
also said that he is &sure8 that Russia does not plan to
provide fuel for Bushehr.


6. (C) Although many participants opposed Iran,s current
nuclear activities and believed Iran was pursuing at least a
nuclear weapons option, of the notable European participants,
only Fischer was strongly critical of Iran,s current lack of
cooperation. Several advocated US concessions on direct talks
with Iran, and Prince Turki advocated the US sponsoring a UN
Security Council resolution on a Middle East Nuclear Weapons
Free Zone. A number of scholars thought that the US should
take the military option off the table, and at least one
participant gave a detailed argument for why a US military
strike is highly unlikely. Some argued that, for various

UNVIE VIEN 00000432 002.5 OF 002


reasons, a military strike is unlikely in the next year and a
half, but that "a war with Iran would be the first war of the
next Administration."


7. (SBU) All participants favored the continuation of U.S.
talks with Iran on Iraq and saw this as an area of mutual
interest. The group consensus seemed to be that it would be
impossible to get an agreement on the nuclear issue as a
singular issue. Several suggested that the US and Iran use
talks on Iraq as a confidence building measure and eventually
expand the talks to deal with additional issues, including
the nuclear issue. Araqchi called aside one participant and
said that Iran would appreciate a credible US denial that
Washington is not fomenting unrest among ethnic and other
groups in Iran such as Jundallah.


8. (C) The conference director made several attempts to get
the Ambassador and the Iranian MFA official to directly
engage. The Ambassador declined.


9. (C) Comment: The Austrian Ambassador to Iran characterized
Araqchi as "one of the most talented members of the Iranian
MFA," Indeed, his presentation came across as thoughtful and
responsive and avoided the stridency of some Iranian
Ambassadors, such as Ambassador Soltinieh in Vienna. His one
slip was to say that Iran would "pay any price to protect its
pride." We should watch to see if Araqchi becomes a regular
spokesman for Iraqi policies. It won't make our job easier.
SCHULTE