COALITION GOVERNMENT GETS A BIT WOBBLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ULAANBAATAR 000083

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR MARR EMIN MG
SUBJECT: COALITION GOVERNMENT GETS A BIT WOBBLY

REF: ULAANBAATAR 0019

Classified By: EP Chief Patrick J. Freeman, for reasons 1.5(B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Parliament's February 6 vote to sack
Minister for Industry and Trade Jargalsaikhan (septel) was
the latest sign of turmoil for the year-old "Government of
National Unity," which has begun to wobble considerably since
the start of 2007. Public and private criticism of the
government by senior MPRP figures is intense. A sudden MPRP
plan to "restructure" the government is widely viewed as a
cover for moves against Prime Minister Enkhbold by his party
rivals. Whatever the outcome of this evolving situation,
Mongolia's basic foreign policy direction, including its
policy of building close ties with the U.S., will not likely
be changed. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Parliament's February 6 vote to dismiss MIT
Minister Jargalsaikhan was the third time in little more than
a month that the Cabinet lost a minister. In an implicit nod
to the likely outcome of the Jargsalsaikhan vote, Prime
Minister Enkhbold did not show up in parliament to
participate in the debate or the balloting. The slow
unraveling of the government began in early January, when
Health Minister Gundalai was dismissed by the Prime Minister
(reftel). Gundalai's People's Party was subsequently removed
from the five party coalition which formed the current
"National Unity" government in January 2006. In mid-January,
despite votes by some party colleagues against him, MPRP
Minister for Social Welfare and Labor Odonchimed survived a
motion by the opposition Democratic Party to dismiss him --
but then immediately resigned anyway. Just before voting
overwhelmingly to sack Jargalsaikhan, parliament confirmed
the PM's choices (two MPRP MPs) for the vacant Health and
Social Welfare positions.


3. (SBU) Jargalsaikhan asserted after his dismissal that his
Republican Party (for which Jargalsaikhan is the only MP) has
the right under the coalition government agreement to fill
the Trade and Industry seat. However, it seems more likely
than the governing coalition will further contract to three
parties, and an MPRP nominee will fill the post. Altogether,
the three remaining parties in the coalition would hold 46
out of 76 seats in parliament (with the MPRP alone holding 39
seats, ensuring a simple majority).


4. (SBU) Even if the Democrats refrain from calling
parliamentary votes on other unpopular ministers, further
changes in the government seem likely in the near future.
During a lengthy MPRP Steering Council meeting on January 31,
the party reportedly decided to form a working group to
restructure the government and shrink the number of
ministries, perhaps to nine from the current 13 -- a step
which will further affect the coalition agreement on
distribution of Cabinet seats. Reports from MPRP sources
suggest that the restructuring plan was forced on Enkhbold by
his rivals in the party, who intend to use the plan to
maneuver against the PM. The working group is headed by MPRP
MP (and Deputy PM in the September 2004-January 2006
government) Ulaan, and is due to report in late February.
The State Great Hural is currently slated to recess soon
until April, but may be held in session to consider the
revised government structure (at least up until the February
15-19 Tsagaan Saar holiday).


5. (SBU) Adding greatly to the sense of siege for the
government of Prime Minister Enkhbold, he and his government
have come under strong public criticism from MPRP figures in
recent days. In a newspaper interview published on January
30, Ulaan called the current Cabinet "undisciplined," and
said it is losing the trust and confidence of the public.
Ulaan underlined the importance of the Prime Minister in
ensuring the government works as a unified whole, and said
that PM Enkhbold lacked experience and thus had difficulty in
providing leadership. Ulaan opined that the MPRP might form
a new government with Democratic Party support, and said that
the PM in such a government would need to be decided by MPRP
party meetings. MPRP Secretary General S. Bayar also told
journalists that the government is ill-disciplined, and said
he did not believe it would be able to continue to function.


6. (C) In a January 23 meeting with E/P Chief, Bayar
(strictly protect) said that there is considerable discussion
among senior party figures about dumping PM Enkhbold both as
Prime Minister and as party leader. Bayar called Enkhbold
weak and indecisive, and blamed him for the MPRP's low
standing in the opinion polls. Bayar opined that, if the

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coalition somehow escaped a major reshuffle before the
mid-February Mongolian New Years, the issue would reoccur
when parliament begins its spring session in April. Bayar
commented that President Enkhbayar is working through DPM
Enkhsaikhan to try to resurrect an MPRP-Democratic Party
coalition government. E/P Chief noted that 17 (out of 24) DP
MPs had publicly said in January 2006 that they wanted to
join the new government. Bayar opined that no more than half
of those MPs would still be willing to do so, given the
approach of the June 2008 general election. During a January
30 lunch with visiting EAP DAS Christensen, Bayar said that
PM Enkhbold has been unable to discipline his Cabinet -- an
observation all the more notable because the other lunch
guests listening to this comment included Democratic Party
head Elbegdorj and Civil Will Party head Oyun.


7. (C) Comment: Amid this evolving free-for-all, it's hard
to predict where things will end up, except to say that more
dramatic developments seem likely soon -- and that the MPRP's
poll numbers won't be helped by the public feuding within the
party. Foreign policy is generally not an issue of
contention in Mongolian politics, and Mongolia's policy of
building close ties with the United States will not change
whatever government is in place. However, the current
government's typical indecisiveness will only be aggravated
by the distractions of the ongoing political circus, which
may hamper prompt consideration of issues of importance to us.
MINTON