MONGOLIANS BELIEVE CLIMATE CHANGE WREAKS HAVOC ON MONGOLIA

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JAKARTA PLEASE PASS TO BALI CLIMATE CHANGE USDEL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV ENRG ECON PREL MG
SUBJECT: MONGOLIANS BELIEVE CLIMATE CHANGE WREAKS HAVOC ON MONGOLIA


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SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Far from being a theoretical problem, climate
change is battering Mongolia's environment and eco-systems, with
consequences far beyond its own borders. This is a commonly held
view nation-wide and across the social, economic and political
spectrum -- from the President to nomadic herders in the
countryside. Mongolian and international scientists and Mongolian
citizens report its rivers and lakes are drying up. Sand is being
blown as far away as Nevada, according to press reports.
Pastureland and plant species are disappearing; in the eastern
provinces, violence has erupted among herders fighting over choice
pastureland. Rising temperatures have resulted in such extreme
weather fluctuations which have yielded prolonged droughts and
harsher winters. Dwindling water resources and consequent
desertification directly threaten the country's economic heart - the
herding and agricultural sectors. Windswept dust from the expanding
Gobi desert has increased respiratory distress worldwide, according
to some reports. The Government of Mongolia (GOM) has acceded to
numerous treaties and protocols on curbing global warming and has
engaged the international donor communities on several projects to
improve water resource management and stem the tide of
desertification. But more commitment, financing and capacity
building will be needed if GOM efforts in these areas are to prove
effective. END SUMMARY

MONGOLIA IS HEATING UP AND DRYING OUT
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2. (U) Scientists have determined that, over the last decade,
average temperatures in Mongolia rose to their highest point in the
past millennium. Corresponding to global trends, 1998 was the
warmest year ever measured in Mongolia. Over the last 60 years
Mongolia has registered an average annual increase of 1.66 degrees
Celsius (2.9 degrees Fahrenheit) in air temperature, with a
recognizable warming trend beginning in the 1970's and intensifying
towards the end of the 1980's. The warming trend has been most
pronounced in winter, with a mean temperature increase of 3.61
degrees Celsius (or 6.5 degrees Fahrenheit),according to Mongolian
records. The average duration of heat waves has increased by 8-18
days while the duration of cold fronts is clearly decreasing.
Scientists speculate that increasing concentrations of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere have a more exaggerated effect on the
climate because Mongolia is a landlocked, high-altitude country.

CAUSE FOR CONCERN
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3. (U) Mongolian scientists say they have a reason to be concerned.
The vast majority of the population depends on livestock and other
climate-dependent sectors. Animal husbandry employs 48% of the
population (about 1.4 million Mongolians),produces 35% of the
nation's agricultural gross production (US$660 million),and
accounts for 30% of the country's exports. Scientists say a changing
climate decimates pasture, threatening forage yields, livestock
productivity, and, ultimately, local and national food production
capacity. Intensified droughts and severe winters are inflicting
serious damage, not only on the livestock sector, but also on the
national economy.

RADICAL WEATHER CHANGES
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4. (U) Although it may seem contradictory that warming conditions

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produce harsher winters, in this case harsher means that stormier,
windier, dustier conditions (typical of a Mongolian spring)
predominate. A day can start off sunny and mild at 60 F and end
with a howling, dusty wind-chill of 15 F. Mongolian springs,
currently stretching from late March through May, are feared by
herders because the intense fluctuations stress their animals at end
of winter, just when the animals are at their weakest. Sudden
winter warming spells often result in higher than normal snowfall,
surge snows and wind storms that have decimated livestock. Melted
snow from winter warming spells does not seep into the ground but
rather create ice sheets that prevent animals from reaching their
food sources. Summer droughts and corresponding harsh winters, or
"dzuds" ("white when there's too much snow and "black" when there's
too little; both tend to cause substantial herd losses of 20-30%),
in 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002 affected 50-70% of Mongolian territory
and led to the death of over 10 million animals.

RIVERS, LAKES DRYING UP
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5. (U) Droughts initiated by climate change have resulted in
decreased levels of surface water resources. Reduced glacial runoff
has lowered lake levels and river flows in western Mongolia,
scientists say. A 2003-2006 inventory of surface water resources
showed a massive decrease and a potential permanent loss of natural
water resources (rivers, lakes, ponds and wells). Some 3,000 water
sources have dried up, including 680 rivers and 760 lakes. (COMMENT:
The now largely dry river bed adjacent to the Chancery used to flow
deep and continuously and was the childhood swimming hole for the
President's Foreign Policy Advisor, for example.) The water table is
falling in arid regions, and degradation and desertification of land
cover, due to a shortage of water and precipitation, has
intensified. Studies have recorded increases in evaporation and
plant evapo-transpiration, as well as decreases in soil moisture,
due to rising temperatures. These changes contribute to reduction in
plant cover that serves as a natural ground insulator. The resulting
loss of insulation increases surface soil temperatures that lead to
further evaporation and soil moisture loss. Warming temperatures are
also eroding the underground permafrost, which is another valuable
source of water for plant life.

PASTURELAND, PLANT SPECIES DISAPPERARING
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6. (U) Along with overgrazing and deforestation, soil- moisture
loss is one of the factors contributing to the country's growing
desertification, scientists report. Roughly 40% of Mongolia's
territory currently consists of arid or desert terrain, and
scientists estimate some 70-80% of the country is vulnerable to
desertification. They estimate that 70% of Mongolia's pastureland
has been degraded and depleted, vegetation growth rate has already
decreased five times, and the number of plant species has reduced
six fold. As pastureland has decreased by 6.9 million hectors
during the last 30 years, the yield from severely degraded pasture
has decreased five fold.

SAND BLOWN AS FAR AWAY AS NEVADA
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7. (U) Increased desertification has created severe dust and
sandstorms, known in some parts as the "Yellow Sand" phenomenon,
that have swept across Mongolia and 18 provinces of China, as well
as the Korean peninsula and a large part of Japan, according to
press reports. These sands have blown clear to the United States; a

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recent report regarding pollution in the state of Nevada noted that
the high levels of arsenic in the atmosphere originated from this
region. Dust and sandstorms are serious trans-boundary
environmental issues in northeast Asia, impacting the health of
millions of people across a large swath of the Northern Hemisphere.
It results in decreased visibility, as well as eye and respiratory
problems.

GOM EFFORTS TO PROTECT ENVIRONMENT
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8. (U) The GOM works unilaterally and multilaterally on
environmental protection. Mongolia joined the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change in 1992 and in 1999 implemented its
national program on protection of the Ozone Layer (with assistance
from the UN Environment Program). Mongolia also took part in the
"Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction from Industry in Asia and the
Pacific" project, which was implemented in nine countries by UNEP.
Mongolia acceded to the Montreal Protocol (on substances that
deplete the ozone layer) in 1996 and to the Stockholm Convention (on
reduction of persistent organic pollutants) in 2004. Mongolia
ratified the Kyoto Treaty on Climate Change in 1999.

FIGHTING DESERTIFICATION
--------------


9. (U) The GOM developed a National Program for Combating
Desertification (NPCD) and set up a National Committee for Combating
Desertification (NCCD),but personnel, resource and , financing
limitations hinder the committee's activities. The Swiss Agency for
Development and Cooperation (SDC) has proposed to contribute to a
more effective implementation of the NPCD in alignment with
Mongolia's policies and action plans. The SDC project aims to
support the NCCD's objectives of improving the effectiveness of
national and international efforts on combating desertification and
promoting sustainable livelihoods in arid and semi-arid areas. The
NCCD has a government mandate for coordination and alignment.
However, its capacity is weak and activities related to
desertification are isolated and often lack a coherent, long-term
perspective. Additionally, no entity currently conducts
standardized monitoring of programs on desertification. Nor is
there a coordinating agency to share lessons learned or best
practices.

WATER MANAGEMENT
--------------

10.(U) Faced with dwindling water resources, the GOM declared 2004
as the "National Year of Water," and passed new legislation on water
management. The "Johannesburg Goal" of setting up a national plan
for an Integrated Water Resource Management was a key element.
Furthermore, the Government of the Netherlands will soon implement
a five-year project titled "Water Resources United Management."
Under the project, US$9.3 million will be spent on the improvement
of subsoil water supplies, water preservation, and the improvement
of water supplies of settlement areas.

U.PENN TEAM TO LAKE HOVSGOL
--------------

11.(U) A team of ecologists and evolutionary biologists from the
University of Pennsylvania received a five-year, $2.5-million
National Science Foundation grant to examine the ecological and
societal consequences of increased grazing and rising temperatures

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in the Lake Hovsgol region of northern Mongolia. The goal is to
understand how this region will respond to further global warming
and to inform GOM policy being prepared on land preservation and
management. The project focuses on understanding the effects of
grazing and climate change in a region used by nomadic herders and
home to two important ecosystems, the taiga forest and steppe
grasslands. US scientists will also run educational workshops on
ecology, evolutionary biology and statistics, all underrepresented
in the Mongolian curriculum.

NEWS NOT ALL BAD
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12.(U) Ironically for Mongolia, the news may not be all bad. Some
scientists and economists have speculated that, along with other
northern countries, Mongolia could benefit to the tune of a 6.5%
increase in GDP if global warming predictions pan out, thanks mostly
to reduced expenditures on fossil fuels for heating; increased
tourism (international tourism to Mongolia could jump 122% by the
end of the century as the country becomes warmer) and projected
gains in agricultural production because of longer growing seasons
and more accommodating climates. (Researchers believe that if the
world warms up, the sweet spots for growing crops will migrate
northward. The more likely scenario, however, is that any gains from
warming temperatures will be offset by reduced levels of
precipitation and the increased spread of parasites and diseases.)


COMMENT
--------------

13.(SBU) Mongolia's unspoiled wilderness has allowed researchers
from all over the world to investigate the advance of global warming
and climate change on a scientific level. But you hardly need a
thermometer or Bunsen burner to see the devastating toll that global
warming is already exacting on the environment and people of
Mongolia. As water resources vanish and desertification intensifies,
herders compete over dwindling patches of grazing land. Governors
from Mongolia's eastern provinces report that violence has spread
among herders, with those migrating from dried-up southern pastures
contending with herders in the north for a piece of their richer
steppe. The livelihood of herder communities suffers and the
country's large agricultural sector is negatively impacted.
Urbanization intensifies as more herders abandon their traditions to
find work in the cities.


14. (SBU) So far Mongolia has talked the talk in combating global
warming. President Enkhbayar made climate change the theme of one
of his major speeches during his recent visit to the U.S., for
example. But as is often the case, lack of resources and capacity
limit the GOM's responses to the crisis. The country's deteriorating
environmental situation is exacerbated by vested interests
(artisanal mining and the cashmere industry),poor coordination
among ministries and agencies, inadequate monitoring of natural
resource conditions and weak enforcement of environmental
regulations. To address these challenges, the GOM will need to more
vigorously enforce existing environmental laws, expand its system of
nature reserves, and invest in energy-efficient technologies and
pollution abatement schemes. The GOM will also need to work more
closely with international organizations and civil society to
promote environmental awareness.

Minton