BAYAR UPSETS PM ENKHBOLD TO LEAD MONGOLIA'S RULING

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STATE FOR EAP/CM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON SOCI MG
SUBJECT: BAYAR UPSETS PM ENKHBOLD TO LEAD MONGOLIA'S RULING
PARTY

REF: ULAANBAATAR 607

Classified By: Charge d'Affairs Brian L. Goldbeck for Reason 1.4 (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The 24th Congress of the ruling Mongolian
People's Revolutionary Party (MPRP) unexpectedly produced a
new party leader on October 27: Bayar, who defeated incumbent
MPRP Chairman and Prime Minister Enkhbold in a secret-ballot
vote. Bayar, an English-speaking, Russian-educated MPRP
stalwart, surprised delegates by stating in his victory
address that he is now seeking the prime ministership, as
well as the party chairmanship. Enkhbold appeared devastated
over the loss of his chairmanship, which occurred despite
alleged payments to hundreds of voting delegates. The
situation remains fluid and there is great confusion over
whether Prime Minister Enkhbold will be able to hang onto his
position and whether the full Cabinet, or some ministers,
will be replaced. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The 24th Congress of the ruling Mongolian People's
Revolutionary Party (MPRP) unexpectedly produced a new party
leader on October 27: party stalwart Bayar, who defeated
incumbent MPRP Chairman and Prime Minister Enkhbold in a
secret-ballot vote. The victory was sweet revenge for Bayar,

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who at the last party Congress in 2005 lost the chairmanship
to Enkhbold by a wafer-thin margin. After a one-day break
that followed the week-long Congress, the MPRP on October 29
opened its party Conference, which is expected to run two to
three days and result in the selection of several key party
positions. (Note: 677 delegates took part in the Congress
and then selected the 255 delegates who are participating in
the Conference.)


3. (C) Bayar, until now the MPRP's Secretary General, is an
English-speaking, Russian-educated MPRP stalwart who helped
write the country's post-Socialist Constitution. He
organized the party Congress and, whether by design or
accident, perfectly timed a colleague's speech. Just before
the crucial vote, an MPRP official from the Ulaanbaatar City
Council, Bolormaa, stood up and praised Bayar, calling him
"clean," worldly and knowledgeable. Then, in a move seldom
seen in Mongolian politics, Bolormaa publicly criticized
Enkhbold, who had served as Ulaanbaatar Mayor in the seven
years before he became Prime Minister. Bolormaa reportedly
said it is hard to work at the City Council because of all
the bad things Enkhbold did. Because of Enkhbold and his
involvement in land affairs (code for corrupt land
transactions),"we're feeling very ashamed, very embarrassed"
to speak with journalists and NGOs.

ENKHBOLD SHELL-SHOCKED
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4. (C) The results were announced live on television: Of the
666 ballots cast for MPRP Chairman, Bayar won by 88 votes.
FSN staff who observed the event on TV said Enkhold appeared
disoriented, clearly shocked that he had lost. (Note: Our
sources say that in advance of the election, Enkhbold's team
had distributed 350 million tugriks - one million (nearly
$1,000) each -- to 350 Congress delegates, to ensure his
victory. But because the balloting was secret, the
recipients apparently decided not to vote for him. We are
aware of at least one delegate saying before the vote that
yes, he had accepted one million tugriks from Enkhbold, but
that no, he was not sure who he would support in the
election. End Note.)

BOLD ACTION
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5. (C) Bayar wasted no time in taking bold action. In
post-victory remarks, he said that if the MPRP fails in
Parliamentary elections (expected in June 2008),he will have
the courage to take responsibility and resign as party chief.
Then he added the unexpected: Unless you give me the prime
ministership as well as the chairmanship, I cannot guarantee
an MPRP victory in the elections. Bayar added that he would
try to unify all MPRP factions in Parliament, prompting wild
applause by MPRP Parliamentarians affiliated with President

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Enkhbayar (who are anti-Enkhbold and who may, if Bayar gets
his way, be positioned to serve as Cabinet ministers).

BACKGROUND
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6. (C) Bayar, whose family hails from the northern province
of Hovsgol, is an ethnic Buryat (unlike the 90% of Mongolians
who are ethnic Khalkh). He studied at Moscow State
University; earned a law degree; subsequently worked as a
journalist, then at the Ministry of Defense before turning
full-time to political affairs. He is 50 or 51 years old.
His current wife (his fourth) works at the UNDP. Bayar, seen
by some as a reformer (and others as an opportunist),was
nominated for the chairmanship by a respected former Prime
Minister, Gungaadorj. Gungaadorj described Bayar as "a
relatively clean politician" who is educated and well-known
overseas. (Note: Bayar does not enjoy the squeaky-clean
image he had in previous years. When he served as Ambassador
to Russia from 2001 to 2005, Mongolia paid US $250 million to
settle its socialist-era debt to Russia. However, Russia
said it only received $200 million. The missing $50 million
was never accounted for. End Note.)

WHAT NOW?
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7. (C) COMMENT: The situation remains fluid and there is
great confusion over whether Prime Minister Enkhbold will be
able to hang onto his position. The MPRP charter appears to
give him the right to remain in that position until the next
party Congress (in 2009); however, other actions could force
Enkhbold out of power. One third of Parliament could force a
vote on the ouster of the Prime Minister, or the entire
Government. Alternatively, President Enkhbayar, returning
soon from his trip to the United States, could nominate Bayar
as Prime Minister and submit the proposal to Parliament. Or,
if half or more of Enkhbold's Cabinet ministers resign - and
we hear that supporters are fleeing the Enkhbold camp in
droves - the government itself will have to resign. Perhaps
the only things that are looking clear at this point are that
(1) Bayar, the new MPRP chief, has not hidden his great
ambition; and (2) some "sacrificial" Cabinet heads are likely
to roll. END COMMENT
Goldbeck