JAPANESE AMBASSADOR ON MONGOLIAN POLITICS, DPRK

C O N F I D E N T I A L ULAANBAATAR 000570

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE DEPT FOR EAP/CM AND EAP/J
MILLENIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC FOR F. REID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON MG
SUBJECT: JAPANESE AMBASSADOR ON MONGOLIAN POLITICS, DPRK
TALKS

Classified By: DCM Brian Goldbeck for Reason 1.4 (b and d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In an October 3 meeting with the Ambassador,
Japanese Ambassador Ichihashi said Mongolia's ruling party,
the MPRP, is "looking desperate" and could well lose next
year's general election. The Japanese envoy also shared
details of the recent Japan-DPRK talks in Ulaanbaatar, and
announced that Mongolia's Foreign Minister will visit Japan
next month. On assistance programs for Mongolia, the U.S.
and Japanese Ambassadors agreed that their countries, along
with Europeans, should look for opportunities to coordinate
efforts, in order to amplify their impact. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Japanese Ambassador Yasuyoshi Ichihashi told the
Ambassador over lunch October 3 that in his view, the ruling
Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party (MPRP) is "looking
desperate," tumbling in popularity and in danger of losing
next year's general election. Ichihashi said the MPRP is in
disarray, with reformists gaining ground and the rank and
file uneasy in the run-up to the election. He said the
opposition Democratic Party seems more unified than the MPRP.
He added that it's possible that the MPRP will take
legislative steps to "pass some money out" to the public.

JAPAN-DPRK TALKS
--------------


3. (C) Ambassador Ichihashi, joined by DCM Kobayashi, also
shared insights from the recent Japan-DPRK talks in
Ulaanbaatar, saying he was surprised that all of the North
Korean delegates, with the exception of the Ambassador, speak
Japanese. He said that thanks to Mongolian intermediaries,
he was able to speak directly with the North Korean
Ambassador for the first time. Ichihashi said the
discussions lasted two full days and included the disabling
of DPRK nuclear facilities. (Note: He did not provide
further details. End Note.) The talks ended "with smiles
and the shaking of hands." The Japanese Ambassador noted
that the North Koreans did not hide their disgust of former
Prime Minister Abe, who they felt was too harsh on sanctions
and ruled out any aid. Ichihashi held out the possibility of
further Japan-DPRK talks in Mongolia (though an aide pointed
out that the Japanese delegates might prefer to avoid a visit
to UB in the wintertime).

"GREATER NUMBERS, GREATER LEVERAGE"
--------------


4. (C) Ambassador Ichihashi congratulated the United States
for concluding a $285 million Millenium Challenge Corporation
(MCC) Compact with Mongolia, and said Japan too wanted "to
increase our input, but there are always budget
considerations." Ambassador Minton noted that the European
Bank for Reconstruction and Development is considering
investing $15 million in Mongolia this year (and perhaps $100
million next year),and that if the United States, Japan and
Europe compare and coordinate efforts, their impact could be
amplified. "Greater numbers give us greater leverage," the
Ambassador noted. The Japanese Ambassador concurred. He
added that the Government of Japan is taking a number of
steps to boost Mongolia's private sector, including
organizing talks aimed at promoting trade and investment, as
well as the mining sector.

MONGOLIAN FM TO VISIT JAPAN
--------------


5. (SBU) Ichihashi said Mongolian Foreign Minister Enkhbold
will visit Japan in November. The head of the Democratic
Party, former Prime Minister Elbegdorj, plans a separate
visit the same month, he added.
MINTON