ANOTHER SHOOTOUT SOUTH OF TUNIS AMID SPECULATION

S E C R E T TUNIS 000016

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NEA FOR JEFFREY, GRAY AND HOPKINS
NSC FOR ABRAMS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2017
TAGS: PREL EU TS
SUBJECT: ANOTHER SHOOTOUT SOUTH OF TUNIS AMID SPECULATION
ABOUT DECEMBER 23 INCIDENT

REF: A. TUNIS 2973


B. TUNIS 2980

C. IIR 6 897 0044 07

CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR ROBERT F. GODEC FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: ON THE HEELS OF THE DECEMBER 23 SHOOT-OUT
REPORTED BY THE TUNISIAN MINISTRY OF THE INTERIOR (REF A),
THE MOI ANNOUNCED TODAY A SECOND SECURITY OPERATION IN A
SOUTHERN SUBURB OF TUNIS IN WHICH SECURITY FORCES REPORTEDLY
SHOT AND KILLED ALL OF THE MEMBERS OF AN ARMED GROUP. THE
GOT LINKED THE LATEST INCIDENT TO THE DECEMBER 23 SHOOT-OUT.
THE TEXT OF THE GOTS PRESS RELEASE ON THE LATEST INCIDENT IS
REPEATED IN PARA 2. PRIOR TO THIS ANNOUNCEMENT, THE GOT HAD
BEEN NEARLY SILENT ABOUT THE DETAILS OF THE INITIAL INCIDENT
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT SECURITY POSTURE. IN THE ABSENCE OF
OFFICIAL CLARIFICATION, THE TUNISIAN RUMOR MILL HAS BEEN IN
OVERDRIVE, WITH THEORIES EXPANDING AND DIVERGING AS DAYS
PASS, INCLUDING AMONG THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY. THE
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED SECURITY PRESENCE THROUGHOUT TUNISIA,
INCLUDING AT HOTELS AND SHOPPING CENTERS, FUELED SPECULATION
THAT THE GOT HAD YET TO FIND THE PERPETRATORS. TUNISIAN
MILITARY FORCES WERE ALSO PARTICIPATING DIRECTLY IN THE
HEIGHTENED SECURITY, A HIGHLY UNUSUAL DEVELOPMENT. IN
GOVERNORATES SOUTH OF TUNIS, EMBASSY OFFICERS HAVE OBSERVED
ARMED SECURITY FORCES SEARCHING RURAL FIELDS ON FOOT. TEN
DAYS AFTER THE SHOOT-OUT, CIRCUMSTANCES SUGGEST THAT THE GOT
CONTROL OVER THE COUNTRY IS NOT AS INFALLIBLE AS MANY HAD
BELIEVED. END SUMMARY.

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TUNISIAN GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES JANUARY 3
KILLING OF GROUP OF "DANGEROUS CRIMINALS"
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2. (SBU) THE TUNISIAN AFRICAN PRESS AGENCY (TAP) TODAY
RELEASED THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT:

BEGIN TEXT (INFORMAL EMBASSY TRANSLATION FROM ARABIC):

AN OFFICIAL SOURCE AT THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR AND LOCAL
DEVELOPMENT ANNOUNCED THAT, IN THE CONTEXT OF AN
INVESTIGATION BEING CONDUCTED FOLLOWING AN EXCHANGE OF
GUNFIRE BETWEEN DANGEROUS CRIMINALS AND SECURITY FORCES ON
THE NIGHT OF DECEMBER 23, SECURITY FORCES WEDNESDAY PURSUED
THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE GROUP IN A SUBURB SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL, LEADING TO AN EXCHANGE OF GUNFIRE. IN THE COURSE OF
THE FIREFIGHT, THE MEMBERS OF THE GROUP WERE SHOT AND KILLED.

END TEXT.

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BUT THE GOT HAS NOT BEEN FORTHCOMING IN DETAILS
-------------- --


3. (C) DESPITE REPEATED INQUIRIES, THE GOT HAS YET TO PROVIDE
EMBASSY WITH TANGIBLE DETAILS OF THE DECEMBER 23 SHOOT-OUT IN
THE SOUTHERN SUBURB OF HAMMAM LIF THAT REPORTEDLY LED TO THE
DEATH OF TWO ARMED GUNMEN AND THE INJURY OF TWO SECURITY
OFFICIALS (REFTEL) LET ALONE OF TODAY'S INCIDENT. MFA,
MILITARY, AND INTELLIGENCE CONTACTS HAVE INDICATED THE
OFFICIAL VERSION OF EVENTS IS THE EXTENT OF INFORMATION
AVAILABLE, AS THE INVESTIGATION CONTINUES. IN A JANUARY 3
MEETING AT THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR (MOI) -- A MEETING THAT
PRESUMABLY PRECEDED THE SECOND SHOOT-OUT, WHICH WAS ANNOUNCED
THAT AFTERNOON, CONTACTS SUGGESTED, WITHOUT ELABORATION, THAT
THE SEARCH FOR THE INVOLVED HAD EXPANDED TO THE VICINITIES OF
THE CENTRAL TUNISIAN CITIES OF SIDI BOU ZID AND KASSERINE,
LENDING CREDENCE TO RUMORS THAT THOSE INVOLVED MAY HAVE
ENTERED TUNISIA FROM ALGERIA.


4. (C) AS OF JANUARY 3, INCREASED SECURITY FORCES REMAIN
VISIBLE THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY, ALBEIT AT A REDUCED LEVEL IN
SOME PLACES. WHILE THE DECEMBER 23 SHOOT-OUT REPORTEDLY
OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SUBURB OF HAMMAM LIF
OR HAMMAM CHATT, EMBOFFS WHO VISITED THE AREA ON DECEMBER 28
NOTICED LITTLE ADDITIONAL SECURITY THERE COMPARED TO OTHER
PARTS OF TUNIS. HOWEVER, FURTHER SOUTH, IN THE AREAS OF
GROMBALIA (40 KM FROM TUNIS) AND SIDI BOU ZID (280 KM FROM
TUNIS),EMBOFFS OBSERVED SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF WHAT APPEARED
TO BE ARMED MILITARY PERSONNEL CONDUCTING SEARCHES OF
AGRICULTURAL AREAS ON DECEMBER 31. MEANWHILE, IN TUNIS AND
ITS SUBURBS, POLICE CHECKPOINTS HAVE BEEN SUPPLEMENTED TO
INCLUDE BARRICADES, SPIKE STRIPS AND ANTI-VEHICLE OBSTACLES.
ALMOST EVERY VEHICLE LARGER THAN A REGULAR CAR, FROM MINIVANS
TO TRUCKS TO SUVS, IS NOW STOPPED AT SUCH CHECKPOINTS


THROUGHOUT TUNIS. AS OF 1700 LOCAL TIME, THESE CHECKPOINTS
WERE STILL IN PLACE IN THE TUNIS SUBURBS, SUGGESTING THAT THE
GOT MAY NOT YET HAVE CAUGHT ALL OF THE PERPETRATORS OF THE
DECEMBER 23 SHOOTING.

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AN ACTIVE RUMOR MILL
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5. (C/NF) WITHOUT FURTHER OFFICIAL DETAILS, THE TUNISIAN
RUMOR MILL CONTINUES TO SPECULATE ON THE REAL STORY. AMONG
THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY, THE ITALIAN AMBASSADOR HAS BEEN
VOCAL IN EXPRESSING HIS "CONCERN" ABOUT THE INCIDENTS. IN A
JANUARY 3 MEETING WITH THE AMBASSADOR, HE OPINED THAT THE
"MASSIVE MOBILIZATION" OF SECURITY FORCES (3000 MEN ARE SAID
TO HAVE BEEN MOBILIZED TO SERVE ON ROTATING 12-HOUR SHIFTS)
WAS INDICATIVE OF A SERIOUS THREAT. HE REPEATED A RUMOR HE
HAD HEARD THAT THE PERPETRATORS BELONGED TO A TERRORIST GROUP
OTHER THAN THE ALGERIAN-BASED SALAFIST GROUP FOR PREACHING
AND COMBAT (GSPC),BUT THAT THE GROUP WAS ALSO "VERY
EXTREME." THE FRENCH AMBASSADOR WAS DESCRIBED AS BEING LESS
CONCERNED ABOUT THE INCIDENTS, VIEWING THEM AS "CLEANING UP"
OPERATIONS BY THE TUNISIAN SECURITY SERVICES. THE GERMAN
AMBASSADOR, AWARE OF ALL OF THE CONFLICTING RUMORS, WAS STILL
ASSESSING THE SECURITY IMPLICATIONS.


6. (C) AMONG OTHER EMBASSY CONTACTS, SPECULATION IS EQUALLY
RIFE (SEE ALSO REF C). SOME NOTE THAT OFFICIAL CORRUPTION --
RUMORED OF LATE TO BE WIDESPREAD, PARTICULARLY AMONG POORLY
PAID SECURITY PERSONNEL -- MAY HAVE ALLOWED CONTAINERS OF
WEAPONS TO PASS UNNOTICED INTO THE COUNTRY. OTHERS BELIEVE
THE RUMORED INTER-CLAN RIVALRY BETWEEN PRESIDENT BEN ALIS
FAMILY AND HIS WIFE'S TRABELSI RELATIVES MAY HAVE EXPANDED
INTO AN ARMED POWER STRUGGLE. SOME REPORT THAT "HUNDREDS"
HAVE BEEN ARRESTED AS THE INVESTIGATION CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH
HUMAN RIGHTS ENTITIES THAT TRADITIONALLY NOTE SUCH ARRESTS
HAVE NOT CORROBORATED THIS RUMOR.

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WHO'S ACCOUNTABLE?
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7. (C) IN A PRESUMABLY RELATED EVENT, PRESIDENT ZINE EL
ABIDINE BEN ALI MET ON DECEMBER 28 WITH MINISTER OF INTERIOR
RAFIK BEL HAJ KACEM. ACCORDING TO A GOT STATEMENT, BEL HAJ
KACEM BRIEFED BEN ALI ON THE MINISTRY'S ACTIVITIES AND
ORGANIZATION, WHICH LIKELY INCLUDED THE ONGOING SEARCH FOR
THOSE INVOLVED IN THE DECEMBER 23 EVENT. ADDITIONALLY, ON
DECEMBER 28, LOCAL MEDIA REPORTED THAT THE HAMMAM LIF
MUNICIPAL COUNCIL WAS DISSOLVED, DUE TO THE POOR PERFORMANCE
OF ITS MUNICIPAL DUTIES. A RELATED REPORTED NOTED THAT, ON
DECEMBER 25, THE GOVERNOR OF BEN AROUS (THE GOVERNORATE IN
WHICH HAMMAM LIF IS LOCATED) APPOINTED AN INTERIM COMMISSION
TO REPLACE THE FORMER COUNCIL. THESE REPORTS INDICATE THAT
HIGH-LEVEL GOT OFFICIALS ARE FOLLOWING THE ISSUE AND ARE

PERSONALLY INVOLVED.

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COMMENT
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8. (S/NF) IT IS STRIKING THAT A REGIME THAT PRIDES ITSELF ON
THE ABILITY TO CONTROL THE DOMESTIC SECURITY SITUATION HAD
NOT CONTAINED THE THREAT MORE THAN TEN DAYS AFTER THE INITIAL
INCIDENT. THE DECEMBER 23 SHOOT-OUT MARKED THE FIRST TIME IN
25 YEARS THAT GUNMEN OPENED FIRE ON TUNISIAN SECURITY FORCES
AT A STANDARD SECURITY CHECKPOINT. AS A RESULT, WE MAY WELL
SEE FURTHER RESPONSES BY THE GOT, INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE
LONG-AWATIED CABINET SHAKE-UP BY BEN ALI.


9. (C/NF) COMMENT, CONTINUED: THERE IS STILL MUCH THAT WE DO
NOT KNOW ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRED IN THE DECEMBER 23 AND JANUARY
3 INCIDENTS. THE ABSENCE OF EXPLANATIONS OF WHAT TRANSPIRED
SUGGESTS THE GOT HAS YET TO CRAFT A CREDIBLE SPIN --
TRADITIONALLY THE RESPONSIBILITY OF FORMER PRESIDENTIAL
SPOKESMAN AND CURRENT FOREIGN MINISTER ABDELWAHEB ABDALLAH.
EMBASSY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEK CLARIFICATION FROM GOT
CONTACTS, INCLUDING IN UPCOMING MEETINGS THE AMBASSADOR HAS
WITH THE MINISTER OF INTERIOR AND WITH PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR
BEN DHIA. IN THE ABSENCE OF KNOWLEDGE OF ANY NEW THREATS,
EMBASSY WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT SECURITY POSTURE, ALREADY
AT A HEIGHTENED LEVEL. LIKEWISE, CURRENT ADVICE TO THE
BROADER AMERICAN COMMUNITY REMAINS APPROPRIATE, GIVEN
AVAILABLE INFORMATION. EMBASSY WILL INFORM DEPARTMENT
IMMEDIATELY SHOULD ANY NEW, RELEVANT INFORMATION COME TO
LIGHT, AND PROVIDE FURTHER ANALYSIS, AS WARRANTED.


GODEC