FINDING PARALLELS BETWEEN BEN ALI AND CEAUSESCU

S E C R E T TUNIS 001544

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/FO, NEA/MAG (HOPKINS, HARRIS)
NSC (RAMCHAND)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KISL TS
SUBJECT: FINDING PARALLELS BETWEEN BEN ALI AND CEAUSESCU

REF: TUNIS 1528

Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (S/NF) In a recent meeting with Ambassador, Romanian
Ambassador to Tunisia Sorin-Mihail Tanasescu offered a
starkly negative assessment of President Ben Ali, the GOT and
Tunisia. Tanasescu suggested there are strong parallels
between Tunisia today and Romania just before the fall of
former President Nicolae Ceausescu. Tanasescu believes the
Tunisian political and economic situation are likely to
worsen significantly in the next three years. Ben Ali, he
said, appeared in very bad health at a meeting October 25.
Tanasescu,s assessment is the most negative we have heard
from the diplomatic corps in Tunis. End Summary.

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Ben Ali,s "Cult of Personality" Bodes Ill
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2. (S/NF) Ambassador met with Romanian Ambassador to Tunisia
Sorin-Mihail Tanasescu on November 23. Tanasescu, who
arrived in Tunis in April 2007, began by underscoring his
grave concern about Tunisia,s future. He said he had lived
through the end of the Ceausescu regime and there are strong
parallels with what is happening to today in Tunisia. Asked
for specifics, Tanasescu cited the constant and increasing
drumbeat of propaganda in favor of the GOT and Ben Ali. This
propaganda reflects, he believes, the weakness of the regime
and growing concern about inchoate, but real opposition.


3. (S/NF) Tunisia is, he said, at best stagnant and probably
headed down. During the next three years, the likelihood is
that political and economic situation will worsen
significantly. The "cult of personality" is everywhere he
said, adding "it is worse than Ceausescu,s but admittedly
less than that of North Korean leader Kim Il Sung." He
continued that Ben Ali,s November 7 speech was an example of
high-level micromanagement at its worst.

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The message: "Tunisia is perfect"
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4. (S/NF) Tunisia,s biggest problem, according to Tanasescu,
is that no Tunisian officials are prepared to deal with
outsiders "in good faith." They will not hold open, honest
and direct exchanges of information and views. This is of
particular concern in the light of the many signs of growing
problems and challenges. He pointed, in particular, to the
increasing price of bread and its shrinking size (see
reftel). He observed there is growing discontent with rising
prices generally in Tunisia, noting that an increase in the
price of bread sparked riots in 1984.


5. (S/NF) Tanasescu continued that in the medina recently
radios in all of the shops were tuned to the new Koranic
station, Zeitouna. While that station broadcasts a moderate
Islamic message, he suggested that there is a growing focus
on religion that both reflects and encourages extremism. He
also pointed to the recent judicial ruling that a Ministry of
Education ban on the wearing of "sectarian" dress (e.g.
headscarfs) was unconstitutional.


6. (S/NF) Tanasescu also complained about the recent wave of
international conferences in Tunisia, including those on
terrorism and climate change. While the GOT played the
conferences up (and the President and Prime Minister opened
three of them),these events were in fact of minor
significance and poorly organized. Tanasescu suggested they
had no point other than to promote Tunisia. He added that
one conference, organized by the ruling RCD party was
particularly bad. That conference, he said, had the sole
goal of promoting the message that "Tunisia is perfect" and
Ben Ali needs to be in charge.

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Ben Ali: Not Looking Good
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7. (S/NF) Tanasescu also opined that President Ben Ali is not
in good health and had looked "particularly weak" at the
October 25 presentation of credentials by new Ambassadors.
At that event, Ben Ali had difficulty standing without
leaning on a podium. Ambassador noted that Ben Ali had
looked fine at two events in early November, including a
November 7 celebration and the opening of the terrorism
conference. Tanasescu acknowledged that the president looked
better at those meetings.

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No Good Answers
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8. (S/NF) Ambassador asked if Tanasescu had recommendations
on addressing the perceived problems in Tunisia. Tanasescu
said the only option is to talk frankly to the Tunisians,
particularly to GOT leaders. He acknowledged, however, that
they are unlikely to listen to views from the outside. He
admitted, too, that he had shared his view with only a
handful of people and could not do so with most of the
European Union representatives in Tunis. The EU, he said,
leaks like a sieve with most information immediately being
passed to the GOT. He cited an example of details of a
conversation in a Brussels meeting being passed to the GOT.
The result, he said, was problems for one EU Ambassador here.


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Problems in Romania, too
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9. (S/NF) Turning briefly to Romania, Tanasescu also
expressed concern about his own country,s future. He
suggested that the Romanian President was taking actions that
are endangering democracy. He was not optimistic that the
situation would evolve positively, noting he saw some
indications of a turn toward authoritarianism.

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Comment
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10. (S/NF) Tanasescu,s assessment of Tunisia is, by far, the
most negative we have heard from a member of the Tunis
diplomatic corps. While we do not fully subscribe to his
views, they merit consideration. Although we do not see an
economic parallel (Tunisia is much better off than Romania at
the end of Ceausescu,s rule),there are political
similarities. There is no doubt that despite its
considerable economic and social progress, Tunisia is not a
healthy country. The painfully slow political progress and
the ever-present "cult of personality" are major problems.
The fate of Ceausescu and the collapse of his regime should
be cautionary tales for Ben Ali and the GOT. End Comment.
GODEC