THE GOT AND THE TERRORIST THREAT: SHAKEN, NOT

S E C R E T TUNIS 000154

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/FO - GRAY, NEA/MAG - HOPKINS, HARRIS
STATE ALSO FOR DS/IP/NEA AND DS/ITA
NSC FOR ABRAMS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL ASEC CASC TS
SUBJECT: THE GOT AND THE TERRORIST THREAT: SHAKEN, NOT
STIRRED

REF: TUNIS 70 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROBERT F. GODEC FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d)

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Summary
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1. (S/NF) In the weeks following its reported disruption of a
terrorist plot to attack US and UK embassies and diplomats,
the GOT remains unresponsive to repeated USG -- and Tunisian
public -- requests for further details on the incident.
While there are reports of "hundreds" arrested and security
checkpoints remain throughout Tunisia, the GOT continues to
claim that it killed or detained the 27 individuals (i.e.,
everyone) associated with the terrorist group. This claim
only fuels ongoing rumors and speculation among the Tunisian
public and foreign diplomats that GOT interests may have been
among the group's intended targets. While GOT officials
continue to extol Ben Ali's social and economic plan to
combat extremism, this recent security threat suggests this
effort has not been successful. Even as the USG stresses the
importance of increased political freedom to combat
terrorism, particularly in light of recent events, there is
no evidence the GOT is rethinking its strategy or its
tactics. End Summary.

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The Party Line
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2. (U) At a January 12 meeting of ruling RCD party
functionaries, Minister of Interior Rafik Belhaj Kacem, in
the most detailed public GOT comments, said that GOT security
forces had killed or detained 27 individuals with Salafist
and terrorist allegiances, including one Mauritanian,
involved in the thwarted attacks. Belhaj Kacem also publicly
confirmed, for the first time, that foreign embassies and
diplomats were believed to be targets of the group. The
Minister also stressed that security forces remain watchful
to protect Tunisia "against all forms of criminality,
extremism and terrorism."


3. (S) Although senior GOT officials briefed Ambassador on
these details in the days before Belhaj Kacem's announcement,
and shared, on January 12, the list of US diplomats found in
the group's possession (reftels),the GOT has since provided
few additional details. On January 26, Minister of State
Abdelaziz Ben Dhia told Ambassador that the GOT "continues to
follow" the matter. Despite this, as of January 30, our
attempts to obtain further information or solicit greater
cooperation, particularly from Ministry of Interior contacts,
go largely unanswered.

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Cases Swamp the Courts
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4. (C) Even as the GOT continues to claim 15 individuals
associated with the group have been arrested, many more have
reportedly appeared in court in recent weeks. Mohamed Emira,
Supervisory Government Prosecutor at the Court of First
Instance, told ConOff on January 6 that he was "very busy"
with cases related to the incident. During a meeting with
ConOff on another topic, Emira was repeatedly interrupted to
deal with these cases. Mokhtar Jellali, a lawyer defending
some of the "hundreds" accused, told PolFSN that many of the
accused appeared in court to face charges on January 6. One
human rights activist reported that whole families were being
detained along with those suspected of involvement in, or
support for, the terrorist group. Specific numbers of those
arrested or charged are lacking, but Jellali characterized
the government's case against the mostly young people he
represents as "weak."

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The Threat
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5. (S/NF) In addition to the large numbers of arrests, the
reportedly entrenched organization of the terrorist group
also suggests that it was more substantial and better
organized than the GOT has admitted. Some of those involved
reportedly fled into Libya or Algeria, while others may have
gone underground in Tunisia. It is unclear what kind of
organized threat to USG interests remains, but it is unlikely
that, as the GOT has claimed, US and UK embassies and
diplomats were the sole targets. Many Tunisians dislike Ben
Ali's repression and alleged corruption. In addition to
discontent among nationals, the GOT's anti-veil campaign and
secular nature has led religious conservatives in the Muslim
and Arab world to denounce the government as anti-Muslim.
Such sentiments, combined with the fact that the plotters
were able to form a group, enter the country, and muster
resources in a strict security environment, suggest that it
is more probable that the group was also planning attacks
against GOT interests in Tunisia.

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What Threat?
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6. (S/NF) Despite these widespread doubts and concerns, no
one in the GOT is straying from the official line that
diplomatic entities were the only target. While GOT talking
points are repeated ad nauseam, in this case it appears that
a handful of senior officials oversaw the operation to take
down the group and have maintained tight control over all
related information. It is rumored that the whole operation
was based out of the Presidential Palace, and the fact that
subsequent reshuffles were limited to security and political
officials in the Presidency rather than in the ministries
suggests that the Palace was directly involved in the
response. In fact, Ben Ali, who is wont to reshuffle
portfolios regularly, did not change any of the leaders of
the state security apparatus in his January 25 partial
Cabinet reshuffle, which suggests he was satisfied with the
official response. (Note: On January 26, the GOT announced a
partial Cabinet reshuffle, involving the Ministries of Higher
Education and Scientific Research, as well as a few second-
and third-tier Cabinet portfolios. End Note.) It is unclear
how involved Ben Ali himself was in the security operations
or to what extent he is familiar with the details. He has
made no public statements on domestic security in months,
though he has made several public appearances.


7. (S/NF) While ministers and ruling RCD party leaders praise
Ben Ali's ongoing efforts to address the social and economic
causes of extremism, this security threat seems to have
proven that Ben Ali's theory of politics is fallible. In the
years since his successful dismantling of the Islamic threat
embodied by the now banned Islamic an-Nahdha political party,
Ben Ali argued that progressive social policies and brisk
economic growth would undermine popular support for religious
conservatism. Ben Ali appears satisfied that his usual
talking points on his commitment to education, economic
prosperity and social development still have resonance with
the broader population and will forestall any demands for
greater political freedom. In fact, GOT officials are quick
to suggest that US efforts to promote democracy in the region
have been more destabilizing than productive. Historically,
there has been a tacit agreement that the GOT will guarantee
domestic security in exchange for complete political control
over the populace. However, it is clear that many Tunisians
believe that recent events prove that the GOT's approach has
not been successful in combating extremism. Further, many
argue it is the corruption of Ben Ali and his extended family
that threatens Tunisia's continued moderation and prosperity.
It remains unclear if these sentiments mark a shift in
Tunisian society that could result in future mobilization of
the public against the Ben Ali regime.

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The Road Ahead
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8. (S/NF) Despite the glossy spin that everything is under
control, we are still monitoring the situation carefully in
coordination with our GOT and other embassy contacts.
Although the GOT claims to have neutralized the threat, we
continue to press for faster and better counter terrorism
cooperation. EmbOffs are also engaging foreign counterparts
to gather additional details and compare notes. (NOTE: On
January 24, the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office
issued revised travel advice for Tunisia to reflect the
security incidents. END NOTE.) We will continue these
efforts in an attempt to decipher the full story.


9. (S/NF) Finally, it appears clear that -- to some extent --
the GOT's control of the security situation has diminished.
But, while the GOT asserts that it has full control,
Tunisians are less confident. The Ambassador and other US
officials have stressed to Ben Ali and other GOT officials
the importance of increased political freedom as a counter to
extremism. However, in recent weeks, GOT officials appear
even more convinced that the root causes of extremism are
social and economic rather than political and that the same
stale talking points apply.
GODEC