Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TUNIS1470
2007-11-09 14:10:00
SECRET
Embassy Tunis
Cable title:  

20 YEARS OF BEN ALI RULE: MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING?

Tags:  PHUM KDEM PGOV PREL TS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0005
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTU #1470/01 3131410
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 091410Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY TUNIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4088
INFO RUCNMGH/MAGHREB COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T TUNIS 001470 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/FO, NEA/MAG (HARRIS AND HOPKINS) AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2017
TAGS: PHUM KDEM PGOV PREL TS
SUBJECT: 20 YEARS OF BEN ALI RULE: MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING?

REF: A. TUNIS 699

B. 05 TUNIS 1148

Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

-------
SUMMARY
-------

S E C R E T TUNIS 001470

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/FO, NEA/MAG (HARRIS AND HOPKINS) AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2017
TAGS: PHUM KDEM PGOV PREL TS
SUBJECT: 20 YEARS OF BEN ALI RULE: MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING?

REF: A. TUNIS 699

B. 05 TUNIS 1148

Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) After much preparation and speculation, President Ben
Ali celebrated the twentieth anniversary of his November 7,
1987 palace coup with a major public speech that announced
several political, judicial, economic and cultural
initiatives, including supporting opposition political
parties. Institutionalizing comments he made to CODEL Tanner
in May (Ref A),Ben Ali announced several steps to expand the
participation of opposition parties in political life, in
some cases at the expense of the ruling Democratic
Constitutional Rally (RCD) party. In addition to steps to
promote domestic investment, Ben Ali announced the end of the
Executive Branch's role in prior review (depot legal) of
books, publications and artistic works. While some of Ben
Ali's announcements are positive, the speech was not as
remarkable as some had predicted and/or hoped and it remains
to be seen if their implementation will introduce any real
reform. After 20 years, most Tunisians remain disappointed
that Ben Ali has not done more to implement his 1987
statement that "We can no longer allow president for
life...Our people deserve an advanced and institutionalized
political life." In a separate step, Ben Ali released eight
individuals characterized as political prisoners by local
NGOs. End Summary.

--------------
MAJOR POLITICAL ANNOUNCEMENTS
--------------


2. (C) In the weeks before November 7, Tunisia was adorned
with flags, signs, and banners thanking President Ben Ali for
his twenty years of "illuminated" leadership. For months,
government officials and those "in the know" had been
predicting that Ben Ali would announce major political
reforms. Officials, and GOT-influenced media outlets, called
on all Tunisians, including the opposition, to contribute to
this historic occasion. Given the positive environment,
private observers speculated that Ben Ali was planning to

announce several major political initiatives, perhaps to
include the establishment of new political parties. However,
whether the initiatives Ben Ali announced, while political,
will promote genuine freedom of expression or association
will depend on their implementation. Major developments
include:

A) Doubling of government financial support for political
parties represented in the Chamber of Deputies, as well as
increased financing for party media, and facilitation of the
activities of political parties in public spaces.

Analysis: On the surface this is a positive development, and
those parties currently in Parliament may be able to increase
their public profile and popularity. However, tying
financial support or freedom of association to parties
already represented in the Chamber of Deputies effectively
promotes the "loyal" opposition only. Two of the most
independent opposition parties, the Progressive Democratic
Party (PDP) and Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberty
(FDTL),will not benefit, nor would any new political party
established by individuals not already serving in the Chamber
of Deputies.

B) Increased dialogue and reinforcing the opposition's
presence on television.

Analysis: This is a more general initiative that should
benefit all members of the opposition. However, as national
television is government-controlled, there is no reason to
believe that critical opposition will be heard. Independent
television is generally apolitical in Tunisia, so those
channels would have to change their policies for this
initiative to impact the political landscape.

C) Decreasing the number of seats granted to each party list,
thus ensuring no single party obtains more than 75 percent of
the seats in municipal elections.

Analysis: This is a very concrete step that will increase
opposition seats to 25 percent from the existing 20 and
effectively diminish the influence of the ruling RCD.
However, municipal councils do not play a significant role in
the major domestic political issues.

D) Lowering the voting age from 20 to 18.

Analysis: In an effort to bring youth into the political
fold, the electoral code will be revised to lower the voting
age. This step is largely in response to concerns that
Tunisian youth are increasingly apolitical and marginalized
by the political process. Given the lack of transparency in
election participation rates, it will be difficult to judge
the actual impact of this initiative.

E) Increased number of female RCD candidates for legislative
and municipal bodies.

--------------
MAJOR JUDICIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS
--------------


3. (C) Ben Ali included several judicial initiatives in his
speech, an area rarely covered by Ben Ali personally. While
the implementation of these announcements remains to be seen,
some are quite positive on the surface:

A) Elimination of the Executive Branch's role in prior review
(depot legal) for books, publications and artistic works.

Analysis: "Depot legal" is the French term for prior review,
and denotes the practice of requiring publications to give a
copy to the government before they can legally go to print.
Depot legal for domestically published magazines and
newspapers was abolished in 2005 (Ref B),but continued for
foreign media and for books. While this is a step the USG
and others had called for, Ben Ali added that "the issuing of
decisions to forbid publication will be the exclusive
prerogative of the judiciary." Thus, depending on how
strictly the judiciary interprets its authority, this
decision may not actually end government censorship.

B) Improved restitution of rights

Analysis: Many of those convicted of a crime in Tunisia,
including released political prisoners, have difficulty
obtaining passports, national identification and other
documents that would allow them to resume a normal life
(including employment),due to a legal code that suspends
their "rights" for a period after their release. If properly
implemented, this announcement could have a significant,
positive impact. For this to matter, Ben Ali's announcement
will have to reach regional police stations that are
responsible for implementing this policy. Often in Tunisia,
lower-level bureaucrats are unaware of or unwilling to
execute policies even Ben Ali himself publicly supports.

C) Elimination of automatic extension of investigation (garde
a vue)

Analysis: The initial period of detention during the
investigation of a crime is called "garde a vue." Human
rights groups report that this period, which is limited to 48
hours by law, is routinely extended without evidence. Ben
Ali announced that judicial authorities must justify any
decision to extend the period of custody. Again, if properly
implemented, this announcement could have a significant,
positive impact. However, independent activists often
complain that the judiciary is not independent.

--------------
MAJOR ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
--------------


4. (C) Much of the twentieth anniversary fanfare highlighted
Tunisia's social and economic progress under Ben Ali's rule.
Even the usually critical independent opposition agreed that
Tunisia has made much progress, although all agree more can
and should be made. To that end, Ben Ali announced the
following steps to promote business and investment, most of
which can be expected to be fully implemented in the coming
year:

A) Tax breaks and other financial support for small and
medium businesses

B) Bank liberalization, including raising hard currency
limits and liberalizing interest rates

C) Debt restructuring for farmers

--------------
PRISONER RELEASE
--------------


5. (SBU) In a separate holiday tradition, Ben Ali reportedly
pardoned four members of the banned an-Nahdha Islamic party
and four other individuals characterized by local NGOs as
political prisoners. According to local groups,
approximately thirty an-Nahdha members remain imprisoned, a
fraction of the hundreds sentenced and jailed in the early
1990s. Unlike most Presidential pardons, and perhaps due to
the extensive coverage of the twentieth anniversary events,
there was no local media coverage of the release.

--------------
WHERE'S THE BEEF?
--------------


6. (S) Prior to the anniversary, some observers had
speculated Ben Ali might announce his intentions regarding
the 2009 elections. Throughout the last year, many national
organizations called on Ben Ali to announce his candidacy for
the 2009 presidential elections. Others had hoped that Ben
Ali might use this momentous opportunity to announce his
plans to leave office at the end of his current term in 2009.
The two-year notice might have presented sufficient
opportunity for viable candidates to organize for the
elections. However, under the electoral code, candidacies
may not be presented until two months before the elections
and the campaign can only begin two weeks before the
elections, and Ben Ali made no reference to his future
candidacy.


7. (S) While Ben Ali's announcements were reform-oriented,
too often, his word and the reality on the ground have been
worlds apart. As the Ambassador told the Foreign Minister on
November 9, it is the implementation of the announcements
that really matters. Ben Ali regularly espouses the value of
freedom of expression and association, but civil society
activists find the ideals are not applied by bureaucrats.
The gap between rhetoric and action is reflected in the quiet
disappointment with the speech and anniversary by many in
Tunisia. FDTL Secretary General Mustapha Ben Jaafar told
PolOff there was "nothing new" in the speech. In a
conversation with the Ambassador, one European Ambassador
dismissed the announcements as "not presidential." Many
Tunisians feel that Ben Ali failed to take advantage of an
opportunity to announce real reform. Unlike other major
national holidays, few Tunisians feel any sense of national
pride about Ben Ali's November 7, 1987 "Blessed Change."
Rather, most are disappointed that after 20 years, it's still
hard to see any real political change. End Comment.
GODEC