INITIAL JAPANESE REACTIONS TO SOUTH KOREAN ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 005626

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2017
TAGS: PREL SK JA
SUBJECT: INITIAL JAPANESE REACTIONS TO SOUTH KOREAN ELECTION

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Joe Dononvan for reasons 1.4(b)
and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Japanese MOFA officials are pleased by the
election of Lee Myung Bak as South Korea's next president and
are hopeful that relations between Tokyo and Seoul will
improve during his administration. They expect him to focus
primarily on improving the South's economy and believe he
will downplay nationalistic and historical complaints about
Japan. There is a good possibility, they believe, that if
invited, Prime Minister Fukuda would attend President Lee's
inauguration. Academics and Korea-watchers also agree, in
general, that relations between Japan and Korea are poised to
improve. END SUMMARY.

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MOFA PLEASED BY ELECTION RESULTS
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2. (C) Japanese MOFA officials are pleased by the election
of Lee Myung Bak to be South Korea's next president,
according to Takeshi Akahori, Director of MOFA's Japan-Korea
Economic Affairs Division. He told Embassy Tokyo Political
Officer that "frankly, both Japan and the U.S. have been
waiting for this." In public, Japan will say that the ROK is
an important neighbor which shares the same basic values as
Japan, and that Tokyo looks forward to forging a good
relationship with the new leadership. In private, Tokyo's
message to Seoul will be that Japan hopes for a
"forward-looking, future-oriented" relationship with the Lee
administration. Akahori said Japan has been disappointed by
the Roh administration's tendency to raise points of friction
and to always blame former Prime Minister Koizumi for all
that is wrong with the relationship. Accordingly,
expectations for Lee are high.


3. (C) Akahori focused on the fact that during Lee's campaign
speeches he pledged that his main focus will be, first, on
improving the economy, and second, improving relations with
Korea's Asian partners, beginning with Japan. MOFA takes
this as a message of Lee's willingness to improve relations.
That said, Akahori pointed out Lee said very little
explicitly about Japan during the campaign, hoping to avoid
accusations that he is too "pro-Japanese" due to the fact
that he was born here. Observers in MOFA expect, said
Akahori, that Lee will first focus on improving relations
with the United States and will turn later to Japan. In
fact, Akahori continued, Lee is not pro-Japan. He may have
developed a number of business partners here over the years,
but does not feel any strong connection to Japan, nor has
Japan ever been one of his priorities. This view was
mirrored in a press report by Nikkei pointing out that Lee
has had very limited contacts with Japanese politicians over
the years.


4. (C) The Japanese believe that Lee will remain true to his
pledge to focus first on the economy. Akahori predicts one
of Lee's first priorities will be to finalize the U.S.- Korea
FTA, and that he will follow this up by focusing on FTAs with
the E.U. and China. Next on his list would be working to
negotiate an FTA-EPA with Japan. Akahori is of the opinion
that Lee's "747" pledge is too ambitious and that his
promises to address the issue of poverty will collide with
his need to cultivate strong ties with business interests in
order to realize his goal of attaining a steady seven percent

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GDP growth rate. However, Akahori is hopeful that Lee can
revive the Korean economy and that relations with Japan can
help play a positive role in this. If this is the case, Lee
will have less reason to revert to playing the nationalistic,
history-based Japan card that is often relied upon by Korean
leaders to revive flagging support.


5. (C) On the Six Party Talks, Akahori said Japan believes
Lee's approach seems to be well balanced and much closer to
Japan's than was the case with President Roh. While
improving relations with the North is important, Lee's
primary priority is the denuclearization of the peninsula,
and his proposal that the international community contribute
USD 40 billion in aid to the North when it denuclearizes is
realistic. Akahori also wondered aloud whether Lee's
approach to the North and the fact that his views on this
issue seem more in synch with those of Japan and the U.S.
might lead to the revitalization of the Trilateral
Coordination Group (TCOG) which has become moribund since

2003.

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ACADEMICS ALSO PREDICT IMPROVED RELATIONS
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6. (C) Academics we've spoken with echo Akahori's views.
Former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and current Fellow
at the Japan Center for International Exchange, Hitoshi
Tanaka, told Embassy Tokyo Bilat Unit Chief that relations
between South Korea and Japan have soured recently not so
much due to personalities as to divergences on policy goals
toward the DPRK. He is hopeful that with Prime Minister
Fukuda's more pragmatic approach to this issue, and to Lee's
more moderate approach that relations can improve. He also
believes that U.S. - ROK - Japan relations need to improve.
While not fond of the TCOG process, he asserts that we need
to strengthen the trilateral relationship in order to better
coordinate policy, not only on the DPRK, but also on wider
regional issues, such as China, regional architecture, and
the maintenance of peace and stability.


7. (C) Hajime Izumi, Korea expert and professor at Shizuoka
University, also agrees that Lee's election should make it
easier to work on a trilateral basis. He observed to us that
although Lee is not well known in Japan as a politician, his
pragmatic, business-oriented background will likely lead him
to take steps to improve relations. Izumi predicts Lee will
not make any major changes in policy vis-a-vis the DPRK. He
also remarked on the lack of nationalism or
anti-America/anti-Japan sentiment during the election
campaign and said he believes the younger generation in Korea
is not so wrapped up with historical issues but rather more
interested in steps Lee can take to improve the economy.
Izumi also pointed out the although Lee was born in Japan, he
was a leader in anti-Japan normalization demonstrations in

1964. However, he subsequently had a change of heart. Izumi
related that during a conference to commemorate the 30 year
anniversary of the demonstrations, Lee told him that the
demonstrations had been a mistake, and that normalization of
relations with Japan and the resulting economic assistance
was the trigger for Korea's "economic miracle." Finally,
Izumi hopes that although Lee seems less likely to play the
anti-Japan card that many of his predecessors have, he is a
bit nervous about the upcoming 100th anniversary in 2010 of
Japan's annexation of Korea, and hopes emotions will not run

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hot in either country.


8. (C) Keio University Professor Masao Okonogi shares Izumi's
views that the younger generation in Korea is not caught up
with the historical aspects of relations with Japan and that
growing business, personal, and cultural ties between the two
countries is leading to better relations. He believes Lee
will want to improve ties with Japan and told us, as a member
of PM Fukuda's foreign policy advisory panel, he has urged PM
Fukuda to take advantage of this opportunity and to attend
Lee's inauguration. (NOTE: There has already been speculation
in the press that Fukuda will attend the inauguration.
MOFA's Akahori, for his part, questioned why Korean
presidents invite foreign dignitaries to their inaugurations,
but said that if Lee does invite Fukuda, he thinks there is a
"good chance" Fukuda would attend. END NOTE.)


9. (C) Seo Won-Cheoi, Director-General of the Association of
(South) Koreans Resident in Japan's International Relations
Bureau told us improved Japanese-Korean relations do not
hinge on Lee's election. Rather, he asserted, it is up to
the Japanese to decide on the nature of the relationship. He
said relations were fine until former Prime Ministers Koizumi
and Abe came along, so now it is up to PM Fukuda to either
fix or further ruin the bilateral relationship. He was very
critical of Japan's (and America's) tough stance on the DPRK,
which he asserted have hurt the interests of many South
Koreans living here.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) Lee's election as president of Korea, coupled with
PM Fukuda's less dogmatic approach to the South, offers the
possibility of further rapprochement between the two
neighbors. Lee will focus on growing the economy and is
likely to look to Japan to participate and assist, albeit
indirectly, in this process. As long as the economy
improves, he will have little need to shore up support by
appealing to nationalist sentiments by bashing Japan. We
sense that Japan will work toward improved relations both
bilaterally and, with us, trilaterally. END COMMENT.




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