OUTLOOK GRIM FOR OEF BILL, AS MOD SCANDALS PUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 004966

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS JA
SUBJECT: OUTLOOK GRIM FOR OEF BILL, AS MOD SCANDALS PUT
BRAKES ON DELIBERATIONS

REF: A. TOKYO 4903


B. TOKYO 4905

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer, reasons
1.4(b),(d).


1. (C) Summary. Revelations of two Ministry of
Defense-related scandals, emerging just as the Diet was
scheduled to finally take up deliberations on new legislation
to reauthorize Japanese refueling efforts in the Indian
Ocean, are threatening to derail the ruling coalition's
efforts to extend Japan's OEF contribution. In particular,
the opposition is demanding that the government and ruling
coalition fully resolve enquiries into the dual MOD scandals
before returning to discussions of Japan's support for OEF.
Diet and press contacts are pessimistic about the chances of
OEF extension because of the feeling that extending the Diet
session to force passage of the OEF bill will interfere with
the important task of budget compilation (usually done in
December),and that continued debate and opposition attacks
could poison the electorate against the ruling parties in the
next general election. End summary.

New Scandals Hijack Deliberations
--------------


2. (C) Prospects for speedy passage of new legislation (Ref
A) to authorize Maritime Self-Defense Forces (MSDF) refueling
efforts in the Indian Ocean have grown increasingly dim in
recent days, as the focus has shifted from the merits of
Japan's support for Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) to two
Ministry of Defense (MOD) related scandals. Initial
deliberations on the bill at a Lower House plenary session on
October 23 were quickly hijacked by opposition calls for
additional disclosures regarding an MSDF cover-up of
refueling data from 2003 and inappropriate ties between
former MOD Administrative Vice Minister Takemasa Moriya and
defense contractor Yamada Corp. News headlines October 24
declared the "Government on the Defensive," and the "Diet
Session in Chaos," as reports on the twin MOD scandals
dominated the morning papers. A slightly more thoughtful
opinion piece by Tokyo University Professor (and frequent
Embassy interlocutor) Akihiko Tanaka in the Nikkei argued
strenuously that investigations into wrongdoing at the
then-Japan Defense Agency have no relevance for discussions
over Japan's contributions to international efforts aimed at
stopping terrorism.


3. (C) Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda struggled to draw
attention to the merits of the new legislation, telling the
Lower House that, "as the person responsible for protecting
Japan's national interests, I don't think Japan can withdraw
from the war on terrorism while other nations are shedding
blood in Afghanistan." The government was able to do little
more than introduce the legislation, however, before the
opposition was able to divert the discussion to the two MOD
scandals, and force the ruling coalition to accede to demands
to summon Moriya for sworn testimony on October 29 as a
condition for further deliberations.


4. (C) Furthermore, the Prime Minister was forced to
acknowledge "a problem in terms of civilian control" with
regard to the failure of MSDF uniformed personnel to correct
or apprise civilian MOD officials of a data error dating back
to refueling efforts in 2003. The incorrect data continued
to be used to refute opposition claims that Japanese fuel had
been diverted for use in Iraq until allegations of a cover-up
were raised in the Diet on October 21. Debate on the new
measure moved to the Lower House Special Committee for
Anti-terror and Iraq Assistance measures on October 24, as
scheduled, but little can be accomplished before the
government responds to opposition questions regarding the two
scandals. Junior coalition partner Komeito's Diet Affairs
Chair Yoshio Urushibara assured the Embassy on October 23

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that the ruling coalition was committed to passing the
measure during the current Diet session, but described
prospects as "gloomy."

Pros and Cons for Seeking Passage This Term
--------------


5. (C) Given the circumstances, some ruling coalition members
are growing increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for
achieving passage of the new legislation during the current
extraordinary Diet session, regardless of whether the session
is extended beyond its scheduled November 10 end date. Some
Embassy contacts note the benefits of quickly forcing the
measure through the Lower House, which is controlled by the
ruling coalition, before letting the Diet session end on
schedule. Passage in the Lower House, according to this
argument, would shift responsibility to the main opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ),which needs to demonstrate
that it can play the role of a responsible governing party.
It would also give Prime Minister Fukuda some measure of
bragging rights before his summit with President Bush in
mid-November.


6. (C) Others question the utility of putting the matter to a
vote at all, even in the Lower House, where the ruling
coalition holds a greater than two-thirds majority.
Continued debate over the issue in the Diet and in the
national press, they say, only serves to fuel opposition
attacks. The ruling parties can scarcely afford to take an
overly tough stance, this argument goes, when the opposition
is in control of the Upper House and the government is on its
heels due to the Moriya scandal and the refueling data
cover-up. The timing issues also mean that the new
legislation may not see the light of day again any time soon,
given budget deliberations for first two to three months of
the new session, which begins in January, and the increasing
likelihood that this will be the best time for elections,
before the first round of G8 ministerials opens in Japan in
May.

Public Opinion the Key
--------------


7. (C) This shift from earlier, more optimistic scenarios
represents an acknowledgment that both the ruling coalition
and the MSDF mission lack the overwhelming public support
necessary to win this fight in the Diet. In the latest
Mainichi poll, conducted October 20 to 21 and published on
October 22, the support rate for the Fukuda Cabinet fell 11
points, to a still respectable 46 percent, while non-support
rose five points to 30 percent. The "stability" represented
by the Fukuda administration accounted for 58 percent of the
positive responses. Support for the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) fell five points, leaving them dead
even with the DPJ at 27 percent. Opinion on MSDF refueling
operations was also close, with 48 percent in favor and 43
percent opposed. Of the positive responses, 65 percent cited
the need for Japan to make a contribution internationally.
Of those opposed, 48 percent thought Japan could contribute
to international efforts in a different way. Only 32 percent
of respondents thought MSDF refueling efforts were helpful
against terrorism. Komeito's Urushibara confirmed that
public opinion is the key in trying to get the DPJ to change
its position, and said the government would seek to emphasize
the role MSDF operations have played in fighting terrorism.

Lower House Elections: The 800 Pound Gorilla
--------------


8. (C) Ruling party leaders must also be concerned about the
effects of continued debate over OEF on their chances for
success in the next general election. The prevailing opinion
among Embassy contacts right now is that the Lower House will
almost certainly be dissolved in the spring, most likely

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after the budget is passed in March. Fukuda is keeping a
low-profile to avoid opposition arrows, and adopting a public
stance aimed at cooperation and accommodation, despite the
opposition's repeated rejection of his offers. Opinion polls
have consistently shown that the public wants greater
cooperation and less enmity in the Diet. Fukuda's style is
not without its critics, however, as a number of media
commentators have noted the shift away from the top-down
management styles of former Prime Ministers Koizumi and Abe
toward greater reliance on traditional LDP party politics.
Cooperation without tangible results is also unlikely to
excite voters who are above all interested in pensions and
health care. Continuing to force the OEF issue, not to
mention extending the Diet session into the season
traditionally allotted to budget compilation, could make the
ruling parties more vulnerable to accusations that they are
ignoring important pocketbook issues.


9. (C) This is not to say that the DPJ is on solid ground
either. In the latest Mainichi poll, 62 percent of
respondents opposed DPJ leader Ozawa's proposal that Japan
participate in the International Security Assistance Force
(ISAF) in Afghanistan (Ref B),and Ozawa continues to draw
criticism in the press for failing to come up with a viable
counterproposal. An October 24 editorial in the Yomiuri
labeled the DPJ "irresponsible" for stating that they will
wait to see if the Diet session is extended before even
deciding whether to draft their own bill.
SCHIEFFER