PM FUKUDA PLANS NO SHIFT IN JAPAN POLICY ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 004661

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C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (ADDING HELSINKI)

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MOSCOW PASS VLADIVOSTOK
HELSINKI PASS ST. PETERSBURG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG JA RU
SUBJECT: PM FUKUDA PLANS NO SHIFT IN JAPAN POLICY ON
NORTHERN TERRITORIES

REF: TOKYO 02690

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Classified By: Charge d' Affaires Joseph R. Donovan. Reasons 1.4 (B) (
D)


1. (C) Summary. Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda will
not alter Tokyo's policy approach to Russia or the Northern
Territories, Japanese Foreign Ministry officials tell Embassy
Tokyo. Russian Embassy representatives add that Moscow plans
to continue its "two-track" approach toward Tokyo: 1)
dialogue on the Northern Territories, and 2) political
discussion on strategic issues and trade. The Japanese
government looks forward to the late October visit of Russian
FM Sergei Lavrov, the early November arrival of Deputy PM
Sergei Naryshkin, and the third round of the Japan-Russia
strategic dialogue, scheduled to occur by the end of 2007.
At their September 8 summit on the margins of APEC, former
Prime Minister Abe and President Putin agreed to speed up
negotiations on measures to facilitate visa issuance and the
peaceful uses of nuclear energy. End Summary.

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No Change in Russia Policy
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2. (C) Japan &has no plans to change its political course
toward Russia8 in addressing the Northern Territories issue,
MOFA European Affairs Bureau Russia Division Principal Deputy
Director Kotaro Otsuki told Embassy Tokyo on October 3.
During Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's first major policy
speech, delivered to the Diet on October 1, the PM said that
"We will make steady efforts toward the resolution of the
territorial issue with Russia and work on developing
exchanges between the two countries." Otsuki observed that
the uncertain political atmosphere surrounding PM Abe's
resignation, and the resulting Cabinet re-shuffle, made any
new policy initiative toward Moscow unlikely.

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Russian "Two Track" Policy
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3. (C) Russian Embassy and academic contacts concur that
domestic concerns in Tokyo and Moscow will block any new
initiative on the Northern Territories issue. On October 3,
Russian Embassy Political First Secretary Sergei Zhestky
observed to Embassy Tokyo that Moscow does not expect to see
any new initiatives in Japan's approach to Russia. Moscow,
he added, would continue to follow a "two-track" course
vis--vis Tokyo: 1) dialogue on the Northern Territories
issues, and 2) discussion on economic and other relations,
including political dialogue on strategic issues and trade.
First Secretary Yurii Yuriev recently added that Moscow
officials remain focused on the March 2008 presidential
election, and that Russian public opinion would never support
a compromise on the Northern Territories.

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Academics Note Domestic Concerns
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4. (C) Aoyama Gakuin University professor Shigeki Hakamada,
in discussing PM Fukuda,s approach to Russia, noted that "it
is inconceivable that his stance on the Northern Territories
issue would be much different from Japan's policy of 'no
return of four islands, no peace treaty.," As Chief Cabinet
Secretary under former Prime Minister Koizumi, Fukuda

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participated in the signing of the March 2001 Irkutsk
Statement and the January 2003 Japan-Russia Action Plan.
According to Hakamada, both documents call for the two
countries to promote economic exchanges while strengthening

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efforts to resolve the territorial issue. Hiroshi Kimura, a
professor at Takushoku University, agreed that Fukuda's
stance on the Northern Territories would not vary from those
of Koizumi and Abe. He opined that Japan would refrain from
taking any new steps toward Russia "because Putin will be
replaced by a new president in March 2008."

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Lavrov Visit
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5. (C) MOFA,s Otsuki said that Tokyo officials have begun
planning for the late October visit to Tokyo of Russian FM
Sergei Lavrov. In addition to the Northern Territories
issue, Japan will look for ways to increase cooperation under
Tokyo's "Initiative for the Strengthening Japan-Russia
Cooperation in the Russian Far East and Eastern Siberia" - a
proposal highlighting eight areas for potential cooperation
that PM Abe presented to President Putin at their summit on
the margins of the June 2007 G-8 meeting in Heiligendamm
(Reftel).

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Abe-Putin APEC Summit
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6. (C) Meeting in Sydney in September, Abe and Putin
discussed four main topics, according to Otsuki and former
Russia Division Principal Deputy Director Kazuhiko Nakamura:
1) Northern Territories, 2) Russian Far East and Eastern
Siberia Cooperation, 3) climate change, and 4) youth
exchanges. On the Northern Territories, the two leaders
stressed the importance of making progress on negotiating a
settlement. Abe and Putin instructed their staffs to take
steps to resolve the status of the four islands, but
presented no new ideas for resolving the land dispute and
provided no specific guidance about how to proceed. Abe and
Putin reviewed plans for the early November visit of Deputy
PM Sergei Naryshkin, as well as a third round of the
Japan-Russia strategic dialogue, scheduled to take place
before the end of 2007. Otsuki observed that Naryshkin's
visit will focus on economic relations and cultural affairs.
The DPM is scheduled to close a series of cultural events set
to take place in Tokyo.

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Nuclear Cooperation
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7. (C) Nakamura said the two leaders also agreed to speed up
negotiations on two bilateral treaties regarding: 1) measures
to facilitate visa issuances to their respective nationals,
and 2) the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The nuclear
negotiations, which started in the "spring of 2007,"
according to Nakamura, call on the countries to exchange
information, to cooperate on scientific research, and to
coordinate on the commercial uses of nuclear energy. The
final agreement may also address the transportation of
nuclear material and the fabrication of nuclear material for
use in power plants. Nakamura noted that the Japan-Russian
nuclear cooperation negotiations have been undertaken in
close cooperation with the United States.
DONOVAN