Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TOKYO4419
2007-09-24 07:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

FUKUDA WINS

Tags:  PGOV PREL ECON JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1999
OO RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #4419/01 2670737
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 240737Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7830
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING IMMEDIATE 9101
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 2354
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL IMMEDIATE 5157
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA IMMEDIATE 3300
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA IMMEDIATE 5714
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE IMMEDIATE 6955
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO IMMEDIATE 4025
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/USFJ IMMEDIATE
RUEATRS/TREASURY DEPT WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI IMMEDIATE 6666
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TOKYO 004419 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON JA
SUBJECT: FUKUDA WINS

REF: A. TOKYO 4408

B. TOKYO 4282

C. EMBASSY TOKYO-OPS TELCON - SEPTEMBER 23

TOKYO 00004419 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: AMBASSADOR J. THOMAS SCHIEFFER, REASONS 1.4(B),(D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TOKYO 004419

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON JA
SUBJECT: FUKUDA WINS

REF: A. TOKYO 4408

B. TOKYO 4282

C. EMBASSY TOKYO-OPS TELCON - SEPTEMBER 23

TOKYO 00004419 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: AMBASSADOR J. THOMAS SCHIEFFER, REASONS 1.4(B),(D).


1. (C) Summary. Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda
defeated former Foreign Minister Taro Aso to win the LDP
presidency by a comfortable margin on September 23. The
generally conservative, pro-U.S. Fukuda garnered 330 of 528
votes cast, showing wide support among both LDP lawmakers and
prefectural chapter members. Fukuda will be elected Prime
Minister on September 25, and announce his Cabinet the same
day. He is expected to make few changes to the current
lineup. He filled senior party posts on September 24,
appointing faction leaders Bunmei Ibuki and Sadakazu Tanigaki
as Secretary General and Chair of the Policy Affairs Research
Council. The Ibuki appointment is something of a surprise.
He reappointed another faction leader, Toshihiro Nikai, as
Chair of the party's General Affairs Council. His personnel
choices reflect his desire to restore party unity and regain
public confidence after losing control of the Upper House to
the opposition in July elections. End Summary.

--------------
Fukuda Wins Easily, but Aso Shows Strong
Support in the "Popular" Vote
--------------


2. (C) Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda won a
comfortable victory over Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
General Secretary Taro Aso in the September 23 LDP
presidential election (Ref A),taking nearly 63 percent of
the vote. Fukuda garnered 330 out of 528 total votes cast.
One Diet member vote was declared invalid. While Fukuda's
margin of victory among LDP lawmakers was a decisive 254 out
of 387 votes, however, Aso showed surprising strength among
the LDP prefectural rank and file. Fukuda took 76 of the
total 141 prefectural votes, but Aso actually scored 3,000
more votes than Fukuda in the 35 prefectures that put the
matter to a popular vote.


3. (C) Fukuda has been elected to serve out the remainder of
Prime Minister Abe's LDP Presidential term, which expires in
September 2009, the same month that elections are due for the

Lower House. Embassy contacts and the press are divided on
whether Fukuda will remain in office for the entire two
years, or merely serve a caretaker role. His future will
depend in large part on his ability to unite the party, win
the support of the public for his legislative agenda, and
counter attempts by the opposition to bring about an early
dissolution of the Lower House. Aso has already pledged his
support.

--------------
Fukuda to be Elected PM and Name Cabinet on
September 25; Few Surprises Expected
--------------


4. (C) Fukuda will be elected Prime Minister at a plenary
session of the House of Representatives on September 25, due
to the ruling coalition's overwhelming majority in the lower
chamber. The opposition parties, which gained control of the
House of Councillors in July elections, have promised to
elect Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) leader Ichiro Ozawa as
the choice of the upper chamber. A split result between the
two houses requires that the Diet convene a conference
committee to seek to resolve the issue, but the Constitution
gives final say to the House of Representatives. The Diet
rules provide opportunities for the opposition parties to
stall the proceedings, but Embassy contacts in the DPJ say
they recognize the futility of fighting over the election of
the Prime Minister and do not want to appear obstructionist
to the public.

TOKYO 00004419 002.2 OF 004




5. (C) Fukuda has said he will announce his new Cabinet after
he is elected Prime Minister. He has given indications
several times in the press that he does not plan major
changes to the current Cabinet, at least not before the
extraordinary Diet session ends sometime in November or
December. LDP and media contacts have told the Embassy that
they expect few changes. Fukuda will make his opening policy
speech in both houses of the Diet on September 28, followed
by interpellations from October 1 to 3. The Diet session
will need to be extended beyond its current closing date of
November 10 in order to accommodate deliberations on
anti-terror legislation to authorize the continuation of
Maritime Self-Defense Forces (MSDF) refueling efforts in the
Indian Ocean (Ref B).

--------------
New LDP Executives All Faction Leaders
--------------


6. (C) On September 24, Fukuda named faction leaders Bunmei
Ibuki, Sadakazu Tanigaki, Toshihiro Nikai, and Makoto Koga to
key LDP leadership positions -- Ibuki as Secretary General;
Tanigaki as Chair of the Policy Affairs Research Council;
Nikai to remain in his position as Chair of the General
Affairs Council; and Koga, reportedly at his own request, as
Director General of the Elections Strategy Bureau. All four
were early and strong supporters of Fukuda's campaign.
Tadamori Oshima and Hiroyuki Hosoda have been retained as
Diet Affairs Chair and Acting Secretary General,
respectively. The new party executives were scheduled to
meet later in the day with Komeito party leaders to reaffirm
the continuation of the coalition government.


7. (C) An Embassy contact in the media called Tanigaki and
the others a "good fit" for Fukuda, given their similar
ideological stances. He expressed surprise, however, at the
appointment of Ibuki, currently Minister of Education. He
speculated that Fukuda may have wanted to find a spot in the
LDP hierarchy for the relatively influential faction leader
in order to get him out of the Cabinet, where some contacts
say recurrent scandal allegations could have left him
vulnerable to an opposition-led inquiry.

-------------- --
MSDF Deployment, Pensions, Economic Disparities
Expected to Dominate Agenda
-------------- --


8. (C) In a statement several hours after the election
results were announced, Fukuda said the LDP is in a state of
crisis ("konran") and promised to work hard to regain public
confidence and revive the party. In a survey conducted among
LDP prefectural chapter executives a week before the
election, 31 of 47 chapters said they wanted the new Prime
Minister to focus on narrowing regional economic disparities,
and 32 chapters called for increased spending on public works
projects. These issues are particularly sensitive in rural
constituencies, where the LDP suffered its biggest losses in
the July 31 Upper House election and public works spending is
seen by many as the primary means for revitalizing local
economies. Fukuda spoke out during the brief LDP
presidential campaign in support of continuing the structural
reforms begun by former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, but
will face tension within the party over the appropriate
balance between fiscal reconstruction and public spending.


9. (C) In response to a question concerning the most urgent
foreign policy question facing the new administration, 42 LDP
prefectural chapters gave the new Prime Minister a mandate to
push anti-terror measures through the current Diet session,
even if it means using the ruling coalition's two-thirds
majority in the Lower House to override opposition in the
Upper House. Fukuda has made clear he intends to pass

TOKYO 00004419 003.2 OF 004


anti-terror legislation to continue Japan's support for
Operation Enduring Freedom. In a nod to the opposition
majority in the Upper House, Fukuda has labeled talks with
the DPJ on key legislation "indispensable."

--------------
Opposition, Press See Election as LDP
Backsliding on Reform
--------------


10. (C) Lawmakers from the main opposition DPJ, as well as
the Socialist and Communist parties, have been quick to
criticize Fukuda's election, calling it a return to
"backroom" politics and a sign that the LDP is not serious
about dealing with the rash of recent "politics and money"
scandals. Opposition leaders immediately called on Fukuda to
dissolve the Lower House and call new elections, to give the
public a chance to voice their opinion on his new
administration. A number of editorials and Op-ed pieces have
portrayed Fukuda's election as a an indication that LDP
faction leaders are trying to regain influence, after
six-plus years of top-down leadership from Prime Ministers
Koizumi and Abe, during which senior LDP lawmakers felt
excluded from the decision-making process. They point to the
speed with which the factions rallied around Fukuda in the
two days before he officially announced his candidacy to make
their case. Some media are speculating that larger than
expected support for Aso in the LDP presidential race
represents the strong desire among a sizable number of LDP
members to prevent a return to the factional LDP politics of
the past, although Aso is himself tainted by his role in
bringing back postal rebel Takeo Hiranuma.


11. (C) Embassy contacts say the election of Fukuda sends the
message that the party, and the public, are looking for
stability and maturity, although some clearly acknowledge the
role of factional in-fighting.

-------------- -
Fukuda an Experienced Hand, Despite Late Start
-------------- -


12. (C) Yasuo Fukuda, 71, soon to become Japan's 58th Prime
Minister, is a six-term Lower House Diet member, representing
Gunma 4 district. He served as Chief Cabinet Secretary for a
record 1,289 days during the Mori and Koizumi
administrations, but resigned from the job in 2004, over
failure to pay a portion of his public pension premiums.
First elected in 1990, at the age of 53, the generally
conservative, pro-U.S. Fukuda actually entered politics much
earlier, as personal secretary to his father, Takeo Fukuda,
Japan's 42nd Prime Minister. Before that, he worked as an
oil company executive for 17 years, including several years
in the United States. When he becomes Prime Minister on
September 25, he will become the first son of a Prime
Minister to be elected to the top post in Japan. Both will
have reached the Prime Minister's office at the same age.

--------------
Abe Absent From Vote
--------------


13. (C) Prime Minister Abe voted absentee from his hospital
bed in the September 23 LDP election, indicating to aides
that he would support Fukuda. Prior to the election, he
issued a statement apologizing for the political vacuum
created by his unexpected resignation. It does not appear at
this time that he will attend the Diet session on September
25, at which he and his cabinet are due to resign en masse to
make way for Fukuda's election and appointment of a new
cabinet. His aides have told the press that he wants a
chance to speak to the public regarding his medical
condition, the exact nature of which remains undisclosed, but
is awaiting clearance from his doctors.

TOKYO 00004419 004.2 OF 004


Schieffer