FUKUDA CONSOLIDATES LEAD IN WEEKEND CAMPAIGNING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 004327

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
SUBJECT: FUKUDA CONSOLIDATES LEAD IN WEEKEND CAMPAIGNING


Classified By: AMBASSADOR J. THOMAS SCHIEFFER, REASONS 1.4(B),(D).


1. (C) Summary. The race to succeed Shinzo Abe as LDP
President and Prime Minister looks to be a win for former
Chief Cabinet Secretary Fukuda, with weekend polls showing he
has a commanding lead over Taro Aso among LDP Diet members
and the public. Fukuda has the backing of nearly 60 percent
of LDP lawmakers. Opinion polls indicate Fukuda has 55-60
percent support from the public, twice Aso's levels. The
winner of the LDP election will be elected Prime Minister and
form a Cabinet on September 25. End summary.

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Fukuda Closes in on Margin of Victory
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2. (C) According to a Yomiuri survey of LDP Diet members
conducted over the weekend and published on September 17,
Fukuda has the publicly declared support of 213 of 387 LDP
Diet members. Only 45 LDP lawmakers support Aso in the same
poll. Each of the 387 LDP Diet members -- 304 in the Lower
House and 83 in the Upper House -- will have one vote in the
LDP presidential election on September 23. Based on the
results of the Yomiuri poll, Fukuda has locked up nearly 60
percent of the LDP Diet vote. Fukuda needs to win a simple
majority of 265 votes on September 23 to succeed Shinzo Abe
as LDP President. Government and ruling party spokesmen have
indicated that the winner of the LDP election will be elected
Prime Minister and announce his Cabinet on September 25.

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LDP Chapters Firm Up Plans
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3. (C) Each of the 47 LDP prefectural chapters is accorded
three votes for LDP President, but can cast those votes
according to its own rules. In Osaka, for example, the local
LDP organization has decided to take a preliminary vote among
its members and then apportion its three votes on a
proportional basis among the two candidates. Other
prefectures, such as Ehime, say they will give all three
votes to the winner of the preliminary vote by its members.
In Fukuoka, the home turf of Taro Aso, the top executives of
the local chapter have already decided to allocate their
three votes to Aso, without putting the matter to a
membership vote. With 213 of the LDP Diet member votes
already in his column, Fukuda needs just 53 of the 141 LDP
chapter votes. Several younger Diet members have stated
publicly that they will cast their own votes based on the
results of the chapter votes in their home districts.

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Fukuda Grabs Sizable Lead in Polls
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4. (C) Fukuda has taken a commanding lead in public opinion
polls. A Yomiuri poll conducted over the weekend showed 58
percent of respondents nationwide in favor of Fukuda as the
next Prime Minister, with only 22 percent opting for Aso.
Fukuda out-polled Aso across all major demographics, but was
particularly strong among female respondents. Poll numbers
published in the Asahi and Sankei were nearly identical, with
all three survey results showing even higher support for
Fukuda among respondents identifying themselves as LDP
supporters. In the Asahi poll, over 60 percent said they
wanted the next Prime Minister to be a "cooperative" type, as
opposed to a "decisive" type. Fukuda has stressed his
willingness to take a cooperative approach with the main
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in campaign
statements. The same percentage said they chose Fukuda for
his "stable" image. Public opinion is unlikely to sway
individual Diet members in their votes, but may give some
indication of the prevailing mood among LDP members at the
prefectural level.

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Little Difference in Domestic Policy Approach
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5. (C) Policy pledges by the two candidates during weekend
campaigning reveal few significant differences in their
approach to key issues. Both say they are committed to
continuing on the path of economic and fiscal reform, but
acknowledge the need to deal with the economic and social
dislocations and disparities that are seen to be the negative
outgrowth of those reforms. The main opposition Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) seized upon the disparities issue to
gain support from disaffected voters in the July Upper House
elections. The candidates have focused primarily on measures
to continue economic growth and fiscal restraint, but have
also indicated the possible need to consider a tax increase.

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Foreign Policy: U.S. Still Central, but Differences
on DPRK, China
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6. (C) On the international front, both acknowledge the
central role of the U.S.-Japan alliance in Japan's foreign
policy and the importance of stable relations with Asian
neighbors, but Fukuda has been more dovish on foreign
affairs. In particular, weekend press reports played up
Fukuda's willingness to pursue "dialogue" with the DPRK, in
contrast to Aso's preference for "pressure." Fukuda is also
much more attentive to relations with China. Fukuda differs
sharply from Aso on the status of Yasukuni Shrine. He has
made clear that he will not visit the shrine as Prime
Minister, and has called for construction of a secular
memorial. Aso, for his part, continues to push his "Arc of
Freedom and Prosperity" initiative as a means of flexing
Japan's diplomatic muscle. Both candidates have clearly
articulated support for anti-terror legislation aimed at
authorizing the continuation of refueling efforts by Japan's
Maritime Self-Defense Forces (MSDF) in the Indian Ocean.
Schieffer