Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TOKYO4285
2007-09-13 11:05:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

ABE HOSPITALIZED: ASO, NUKAGA, YAMASAKI DECLARE

Tags:  PGOV PREL JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 004285 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
SUBJECT: ABE HOSPITALIZED: ASO, NUKAGA, YAMASAKI DECLARE
CANDIDACY FOR PRIME MINISTER, OTHERS MAY JOIN

REF: TOKYO 4262

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer, reasons
1.4(b),(d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 004285

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
SUBJECT: ABE HOSPITALIZED: ASO, NUKAGA, YAMASAKI DECLARE
CANDIDACY FOR PRIME MINISTER, OTHERS MAY JOIN

REF: TOKYO 4262

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer, reasons
1.4(b),(d).


1. (S) Summary. "Sheer exhaustion" left Prime Minister Abe
physically and mentally unable to continue, according to LDP
insiders. Abe was hospitalized on the morning of September

13. LDP leaders, meanwhile, have spent the day hammering out
who will succeed Abe and how the election will be conducted.
LDP Secretary General Aso, Finance Minister Nukaga, and LDP
heavyweight Taku Yamasaki have announced they will run. The
race is far from decided. Others seem ready to declare their
candidacies. An anti-Aso, draft-Koizumi movement is gaining
momentum. Koizumi continues to say he won't run, but his
closest staffers say he could be persuaded. The earliest
date for the elections for the LDP Presidency could be
September 19, after which the LDP-controlled Lower House
would vote in the new PM in one or two days. The Diet
recessed pending the election of the new Prime Minister,
which will delay deliberations on anti-terror legislation to
continue Japan's support for OEF. Japanese media have
focused on U.S. reaction to the resignation, and, in
particular, the fate of the anti-terror bill. End Summary.

-------------- --------------
Aso, Nukaga, Yamasaki Declare Candidacies; Others May Join
-------------- --------------


2. (C) LDP Secretary General Aso, Finance Minister Nukaga,
and LDP heavyweight Taku Yamasaki have announced they will
run to replace Prime Minister Abe. Foreign Minister
Machimura, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yosano, former Chief
Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda, and former Finance Minister
Sadakazu Tanigaki are other names mentioned by Embassy
contacts and the media as possible replacements for Abe.
Aso, whose party committee will set the rules for the
election, favors a quick five-day campaign that could elect a
successor on September 19. Aso and Tanigaki challenged Abe
in July 2006 for the Prime Ministership, coming in a distant
second and third. Fukuda dropped out early in that race,
even though he was running a respectable second. Aso,
Tanigaki, and Yamasaki lead medium to small-sized factions in

the LDP, so their support within the party is somewhat
limited. None enjoy particularly wide popularity with the
public. Tanigaki and Yamasaki have been the most vocal in
their opposition to Abe over the past year.

--------------
Possible Koizumi Draft
--------------


3. (S) Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is being
pushed to run by his staff and a group of anti-Aso, anti-Abe
first term Diet members who won their seats as "Koizumi
Children." This group is adamantly opposed to reversing the
Koizumi "reforms," and have been vocal in opposition to the
Abe-Aso-Yosano decision to re-admit postal rebels into the
LDP. Koizumi has publicly denied any interest in being
drafted, but his former secretary, Isao Iijima, confided to
the Embassy that Koizumi's "no" may not be final. Koizumi,
alone among LDP politicians, remains widely popular with the
public and is the de facto leader of over 60 young lawmakers
elected on his coattails in the "postal privatization"
election of 2005. Some business leaders have called publicly
for a continuation of Koizumi's reform agenda.

--------------
The Procedure
--------------


4. (S) Within hours of Abe's announcement, ruling LDP
officials were engaged in discussions to set the procedures
and timeline for selecting his successor as LDP President and
Prime Minister. The Aso-run LDP elections committee wants
the candidates to declare their intentions by September 14,
and hold the election on September 19, according to the press
and Embassy sources. Koizumi's aide Iijima told Embassy
Tokyo that Koizumi and he have urged some "Koizumi Children"
members of the Diet to lobby the LDP leaders for a longer

campaign period, a move that would allow anti-Aso forces a
chance to organize and mount a more effective campaign. As
recently as the last election, the LDP's internal rules
called for a minimum of 12 days. The new president will be
elected by a total of 528 votes -- one for each of the 387
LDP Diet members from both houses, and an additional 141 for
the 47 LDP prefectural chapters. (Note: The chapters were
given six votes each when Abe was elected in 2006, three more
than this time around.)


5. (C) The new Prime Minister will be elected at a plenary
session of the Lower House. Given the LDP's overwhelming
dominance in the lower chamber, Abe will be replaced as prime
minister by his successor as President of the LDP. The
Speaker of the House is empowered to call a plenary session,
and could do so as quickly as the day after the LDP
presidential election. Prime Minister Abe and his ministers
will continue in their positions until a new prime minister
is elected by the House of Representatives.

--------------
Abe's Sudden Resignation: "Sheer Exhaustion"
--------------


6. (C) Ex-Ambassador Hisahiko Okazaki, a close advisor to
Abe, told the Embassy that Abe had collapsed from "sheer
exhaustion" and was physically and mentally unable to
continue. Okazaki related that the PM was so weak that he
had to be helped into his home at the end of the day on
Wednesday. Others close to Abe confirmed that Abe had indeed
collapsed. Embassy contacts speculate the strains of
never-ending scandals, a crushing defeat in July Upper House
elections, and the daunting task of trying to push his
legislative agenda through an opposition-controlled Upper
House contributed to Abe's emotional decision to resign.
Another advisor to the Abe family told the Embassy that Abe
"lost the will to fight."


7. (C) Chief Cabinet Secretary Yosano announced on September
13 that Abe was undergoing a medical examination, and doctors
confirmed later in the day that Abe had been hospitalized for
the next several days for gastrointestinal problems. Abe has
been widely rumored to have suffered for years from colitis.
An Asahi article reported that doctors and nurses have been
posted at Abe's official residence recently, and that Abe has
received an intravenous drip on several occasions. He is
also reported to have complained that he was feeling
emotionally and physically drained after his recent swing
through Southeast Asia, although an Embassy contact with him
on that trip said that he noticed nothing strange.


8. (C) Press reports on September 13 focused on a combination
of mental and physical exhaustion to explain Abe's
resignation. Although there are sensational stories of
scandals that were about to emerge in one of the weekly
magazines regarding evasion of the inheritance tax and Abe's
mother's contacts with a cult-like religious group, all in
the LDP and all Embassy contacts dismiss these stories as
having no impact on Abe's decision to step down.


9. (C) Public reaction to Abe's unexpected announcement has
been negative. Many commentators expressed disappointment
that Abe lacked the "courage" to stay on and criticized him
for taking a "selfish" and ill-considered action. LDP
lawmakers have mostly expressed anger, with many noting that
Abe should have resigned earlier or later, but not now.

-------------- --------------
Diet Session on Hold: Anti-Terror Bill will be delayed
-------------- --------------


10. (C) The Diet session, which just opened on September 10,
is temporarily on hold pending the results of the LDP
leadership race, leaving the future of anti-terror
legislation to authorize Japan's continued commitment to
refueling operations in the Indian Ocean in doubt. Prior to
Abe's resignation, the LDP had given up on the notion of
extending the current Anti-Terror Special Measures Law beyond
its November 1 expiration date in favor of introducing a new

law that would be certain to pass even if the opposition used
parliamentary delaying tactics in the Upper House. The delay
to the start of the Diet session will likely slow passage of
a new bill (septel). The Japanese media on September 13 gave
prominent coverage to official U.S. reactions to Abe's
resignation, with an emphasis on the future of anti-terror
legislation.
Schieffer