UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS TERMS OF DIET DEBATE ON OEF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 004043

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

OSD FOR APSA, COALITION OPERATIONS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV JA
SUBJECT: UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS TERMS OF DIET DEBATE ON OEF
EXTENSION


Classified By: CDA Joseph Donovan, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: The terms of debate in the upcoming Diet
review of the Anti-Terror Special Measures Law that governs
Japan's contribution to the OEF Maritime Interdiction
Operation (MIO) are still unclear. Direct negotiations
between the ruling LDP coalition and opposition Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) have yet to begin, with key legislators
in both camps uncertain over the positions of their own
leadership. All agree that the new cabinet offers an
effective team to manage the upcoming Diet debate. However,
public offers by the new Abe cabinet to engage discussions on
a compromise extension law were quickly rejected by the DPJ
leadership.


2. (C) While the media reports compromises or revisions of
the law are in the works, Embassy Tokyo contacts in the
bureaucracy and the Diet say no work has been done as yet to
write specific proposals. Observers on all sides say that
the fate of the MIO mission will ultimately depend on whether
or not DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa decides to exploit the issue
for tactical domestic political advantage. The Japanese
government's biggest fear is that Ozawa will use his new
Upper House majority not to vote down the bill, but to drag
out deliberations for the 60 days allowed under Diet rules,
effectively ending the MIO mission when the current authority
runs out on November 1. Increasingly, editorials suggest
that "foreign pressure" (gaiatsu) is the only effective lever
the government and ruling coalition have to persuade Ozawa to
take the high road. End Summary.

More Questions Than Answers
--------------


3. (C) Japanese national security officials and legislators
in both camps say they are uncertain over how the debate on
an extension of the Anti-Terror Special Measures Law will
play out in the Diet session that will open on September 10.
Senior members of the new cabinet, including Foreign Minister
Nobutaka Machimura, Defense Minister Masahiko Komura, and
Chief Cabinet Secretary Kaoru Yosano, have made clear that
securing an extension of Japan's MIO mission is at the top of
the agenda in the upcoming session. Suggestions by Yosano
and Machimura that the ruling coalition is prepared to engage
in a discussion with the DPJ on a compromise or revised law
were quickly and publicly rejected by DPJ leaders.


4. (C) Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Lower House member and
former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba offered a pessimistic
outlook on prospects for DPJ cooperation on the Anti-Terror
Law. Ishiba has advocated scrapping that bill and
introducing instead a Permanent Self-Defense Force (SDF)
Dispatch Law that would facilitate Japan's OEF mission and
other overseas deployments without the cumbersome legislative
authorization process currently in place. He commented that
a "risk-averse" Abe cabinet may not endorse this approach,
but said he may try to work with like-minded members of the
DPJ, which in principle supports a permanent law, to pass a
Member-drafted (vice government-submitted) bill in the
current session. Ishiba admits Komeito opposition to a
general law is a barrier, but predicted to Embassy Tokyo that
he could pull enough votes from conservative DPJ Diet members
to pass the bill. Ex-Defense Minister Koike told us Ishiba's
plan is "best" in the long term, but impossible to implement
at this point without Komeito backing.


5. (C) While Ishiba has been actively seeking to find a
creative way forward, other government and ruling party
politicians say that they are still waiting for top level
guidance from the new cabinet. Cabinet Counselor for
National Security Affairs Kenji Takahashi told Embassy Tokyo
that Japanese agencies could do little more than prepare
briefing slides for the past month while they wait for the
new cabinet to be selected and settle in office. MOFA
Foreign Policy Bureau Deputy Director General Kazuyoshi
Umemoto commented that revising the Anti-Terrorism Law will
have to be solved by the politicians, not the bureaucrats.

DPJ: Waiting for Orders
--------------

TOKYO 00004043 002 OF 002




6. (C) The picture is much the same on the DPJ side of the
aisle. Keichiro Asao, the DPJ's ranking member on the Upper
House Security/Foreign Affairs Committee, told the Embassy
that there have been no internal meetings on the Anti-Terror
Law or clear instructions on how the party plans to proceed.
DPJ moderates are working to create a "soft-landing" on the
bill, according to Lower House Anti-Terror Special Committee
ranking member Kazuhiro Haraguchi, that would allow the
mission to continue with greater Diet oversight.


7. (C) Nevertheless, Haraguchi and other DPJ conservatives
emphasize that they are constrained by DPJ leader Ozawa's
iron grip on the party. Former party leader and leading DPJ
conservative Seiji Maehara commented that "after an election
victory like the one on July 29, no one will challenge
Ozawa's position." Maehara indicated that moderates are
increasingly looking for a formula that would have the DPJ
quickly vote down the bill in the Upper House so that the
Lower House, where the ruling coalition has a two-thirds
majority, can re-enact it. The alternative, letting the bill
languish in the Upper House committee for the 60 days allowed
under Diet rules, would result in the mission being suspended
when the current authorization expires on November 1.


8. (C) The Cabinet Office's Takahashi noted that the biggest
challenge is not how to address DPJ concerns on the contents
of the law, but rather how to deal with Ozawa's attempt to
use the bill to weaken the Abe cabinet and force an early
dissolution of the Lower House. If this is his priority,
Takahashi mentioned, then he will simply run down the clock.
He acknowledged that there are few work-around alternatives
to keep Japan's ships in the area beyond November 1 if the
DPJ decides to filibuster.

Looking for Outside Help
--------------


9. (C) Recent Japanese editorials have suggested that only
foreign pressure can effectively dissuade Ozawa from playing
politics with the OEF law. The Japanese media has been
sharply critical of Ozawa's performance during an August 8
meeting with the Ambassador, and editorials have generally
chided the DPJ's narrowly domestic approach on the issue. In
order to respond to such criticism, some DPJ members have
suggested offering new proposals for Japanese international
contributions. DPJ officials admit, however, that there is
nothing concrete in the works. Efforts by coalition
embassies, including a strong expression of support for
continued refueling delivered directly to Ozawa by visiting
German Chancellor Merkel, OpEds placed by coalition members
in the Japanese press, and a Diet briefing in mid-September
also by coalition members are likely to further highlight the
impact a Japanese withdrawal from the OEF MIO will have on
Japan's international image.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) The OEF mission will be the main event in the
upcoming Diet session and the first real test of whether and
how the Japanese government can operate with a divided
legislature. The appointment of heavy-hitters like Machimura
and Komura to key national security posts is a positive
development. Nevertheless, the government still seems
uncertain about how to approach the politically savvy Ozawa
on the issue. International efforts, such as the recent
op-ed by the UK Foreign Secretary in the Yomiuri Shimbun,
will likely continue to play a critical role in shaping
public and media opinion.
DONOVAN