ABE ALONE SELECTING NEW LDP EXECUTIVES, CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 003930

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DEPT. PLEASE PASS TO USTR/MBEEMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2017/08/22
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: ABE ALONE SELECTING NEW LDP EXECUTIVES, CABINET
MINISTERS

Classified By: CDA Joseph R. Donovan for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

Summary and Comment
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1. (C) Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will announce his new
Cabinet and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership slate
on August 27. Leaving the media, outside observers, and his
own party in the dark, Abe has involved virtually no one else
in the decision-making process. Embassy Tokyo officers have
met with a wide range of Diet members, LDP insiders,
journalists and academics to get predictions on the new
Cabinet line-up. All profess ignorance of Abe's picks and
criticize his one-man decision-making style. However, most
guess that Foreign Minister Taro Aso will be the LDP's next
Secretary General, the party's most powerful position after

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Party President. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki,
already unpopular with fellow LDP Diet members, is expected
to be ousted because of a money scandal and a public dispute
with Defense Minister Yuriko Koike over personnel issues.
Koike only joined the Cabinet in July, but she may be a
casualty of her confrontation with Shiozaki. In addition,
there is growing concern that Abe's executive assistant
Yoshiyuki Inoue is not having Abe's choices vetted to ensure
their backgrounds are "clean" enough to avoid scandals.


2. (C) Tokyo's current political atmosphere is a mixture of
frustration, anticipation, and cynicism -- frustration at
being unable to predict Abe's Cabinet, anticipation that he
will surprise everyone by producing a strong, capable one,
and the cynics' view that most likely he will let them down;
the knives already are being sharpened in preparation for
disappointment. The media has been full of predictions, but
they amount more to an "if I were Prime Minister" view than
an insider's assessment of Abe's thinking. With Abe
traveling outside the country until August 25 there is little
chance that anyone in Tokyo has an inkling of whom he will
choose. In fact, one sitting Cabinet Minister --
Administrative Reform Minister Yoshimi Watanabe -- told
Embassy Tokyo that he, like everyone else, has to wait until
Monday to learn who is in the new line-up. End summary and
comment.

Abe Making Decisions Alone
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3. (C) Prime Minister Abe's LDP executive and Cabinet member
line-up announcement -- expected on Monday, August 27 -- is a
chance for him to redeem himself with the public and his
party after the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) crushing
defeat in the Upper House election on July 29. However, Abe
appears to be ignoring external input in making his
decisions, forcing party heavyweights such as former Prime
Minister Yoshiro Mori to vent their frustration in the press.
The media is full of recommendations for posts as well as
warnings to Abe to avoid his previous mistake of filling the
Cabinet with too many friends and of neglecting factional
balance. LDP Diet member Taro Kono, in a conversation with
Embassy Tokyo Political Officers, commented that Mori's
public pronouncements suggest that Abe is paying no attention
to Mori in private. Kono also cautioned that Mori runs the
risk of Abe ignoring Mori's public Cabinet suggestions purely
to avoid the impression Abe is under the control of the LDP's
old guard.


4. (C) Predicting the make-up of Abe's first Cabinet in
September 2006 was made easier by Abe's preference for
rewarding politicians who worked on his election with
positions in the LDP or Cabinet, commented Ken Hakamada,

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political reporter at TV Tokyo in a conversation with Embassy
staff on August 23. This time the situation is much less
clear, although certainly some of the names in the press
would get posts, he speculated. Cabinet Office Senior Vice
Minister and Upper House Diet member Yoshimasa Hayashi in a
conversation with Embassy Tokyo staff on August 21 observed
that although Koizumi had completely abolished the custom of
appointing Cabinet ministers based on faction requests, one
could easily recognize which member a faction was seeking to
include in the Cabinet, and Hayashi expressed his hope that
Abe would take that into consideration. Abe's larger
challenge, however, is to unite the LDP, he said. Other
Embassy contacts have expressed concern that LDP politicians
might turn down Abe's offer of a Cabinet position. Former
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's policy advisor Isao
Iijima, in a meeting with Embassy Tokyo officers on August
22, indicated that at least one position, Minister of Health,
Labor and Welfare, has yet to be filled and suggested that
Abe's executive assistant Yoshiyuki Inoue would have to do
some serious nemawashi (behind-the-scenes maneuvering) to
find a willing politician.

Aso In, Shiozaki Out?
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5. (C) Only one leadership position appears definite --
Foreign Minister Taro Aso most likely will become the LDP's
next Secretary General, according to LDP Diet members and Aso
himself. Aso indicated in a recent speech that his time as
Foreign Minister is coming to a close, and he has confirmed
privately to the Embassy that he expects to become Secretary
General. If Aso becomes Secretary General possible
successors as Foreign Minister include Shoichi Nakagawa and
Yoichi Masuzoe, suggested Hakamada. Masuzoe has been highly
critical of Abe for remaining Prime Minister after the
election, Hakamada mused, but he would make a highly capable
Foreign Minister. Appointing close friend Nakagawa and
ideological soul mate, however, would allow Abe to keep some
influence over foreign policy, he thought.


6. (C) Mori has expressed his displeasure over Aso's
potential appointment as LDP Secretary General in the press,
arguing that Aso has no experience and will not perform well.
Former Komeito Upper House Secretary General Shozo Kusakawa
and senior Soka Gakkai official Yorio Yahiro told Embassy
Tokyo that Aso would make a poor Secretary General. Aso, who
has never belonged to any other party, lacks the necessary
skills to facilitate cooperation between the two ruling
parties, they charged. Yahiro said he would prefer Toshihiro
Nikai as Secretary General because he left the LDP at one
point and joined several other parties before returning to
the LDP fold, experiences which have provided him with an
understanding of non-LDP viewpoints. An Embassy Tokyo
contact confided that influential railway head Yoshiyuki
Kasai had warned Abe to keep Aso in the Cabinet where Abe
could keep an eye on him instead of appointing him Secretary
General because Aso was too ambitious. Kasai also thought
that former Cabinet Minister Kaoru Yosano should be
considered for a position or at least kept in the loop.


7. (C) Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhiro Shiozaki is unlikely
to remain in his post. Already unpopular with fellow Diet
members and senior bureaucrats for his abrasive style and
perceived arrogance, a scandal involving one of his
secretaries in his home district may be fatal to his chance

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of staying on in any position of leadership. His money woes
were made worse by his hardened stance towards other
politicians in similar situations and by press reports
suggesting Shiozaki tried to cover up his own problem. His

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public spat with Defense Minister Yuriko Koike over the
replacement of Defense Vice Minister Takemasa Moriya further
threatened his position. Shiozaki's relationship with Koike
has deteriorated to the point where he refuses to meet with
her, according to Iijima, and he did not return her calls
about the MOD issue until Iijima intervened.

Koike's Future Unclear
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8. (C) Doubts that Koike will keep her position in Cabinet
also have increased. After the red carpet treatment she
received in the United States in early August, her quick trip
to Okinawa, and her visit to India and Pakistan, she seem
assured of extending her stay beyond two months, but her
handling of Moriya's replacement has renewed concern that she
lacks the necessary political judgment for the job. The
media has compared her unflatteringly to former Foreign
Minister Makiko Tanaka, whom Koizumi asked to resign in 2001
after she attempted to fire then-Vice Foreign Minister
Yoshiji Ogami. Iijima opined that Koike's pride (ogori)
"killed her future," and he suggested former Japan Defense
Agency Director General Fukushiro Nukaga as a possible
successor.

Abe Advisor Not Up to the Task
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9. (C) Embassy Tokyo press contacts have confided that Abe's
close assistant Inoue has invited very few -- possibly only
two or three -- reporters into his inner circle and manages
to stop them from talking to others. Kono said that Inoue
certainly had done a poor job of ensuring that Abe's Cabinet
choices, such as the late Agriculture Minister Toshikatsu
Matsuoka and former Agriculture Minister Norihiko Akagi, were
properly vetted by the National Police Agency (NPA). (Note:
Matsuoka committed suicide over a money scandal in May 2007
and was replaced by Akagi who resigned in late July for a
similar offense. End Note.) In contrast LDP Diet member
Taro Kono revealed that when he was expecting appointment as
Ministry of Justice Parliamentary Secretary in the Koizumi
administration, he waited six hours for the official phone
call. Finally, he ran out of patience and rang the Kantei
only to be told that the NPA was stilling investigating his
background.

Abe Enemies Waiting
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10. (C) Kono asserted that many of the anti-Abe voices had
gone quiet in recent days as the Cabinet announcement drew
nearer. He predicted that after the announcement all those
who were not on the list would immediately begin attacking
the Abe administration again.

Timing of the Announcements
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11. (SBU) The announcement of the new LDP executives is
expected to be made in the morning on August 27, according to
Iijima. Abe would start calling in new Ministers in the
mid-afternoon and the Emperor's approval ceremony would be
held in the evening around 9:00, he said. The vice ministers
and parliamentary secretaries will be announced on August 28.
DONOVAN