Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TOKYO3765
2007-08-15 07:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

WEAKENED PRIME MINISTER ABE TO VISIT INDIA,

Tags:  PREL ECON ETRD PARM IN ID MY JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 003765 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2017
TAGS: PREL ECON ETRD PARM IN ID MY JA
SUBJECT: WEAKENED PRIME MINISTER ABE TO VISIT INDIA,
INDONESIA, MALAYSIA


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Michael Meserve for reasons 1.4(b) and
(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 003765

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2017
TAGS: PREL ECON ETRD PARM IN ID MY JA
SUBJECT: WEAKENED PRIME MINISTER ABE TO VISIT INDIA,
INDONESIA, MALAYSIA


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Michael Meserve for reasons 1.4(b) and
(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, weakened
by his party's defeat in last month's Upper House elections
and facing dropping support from the public and rising
criticism from within the LDP, will depart Tokyo August 19
for a visit to Indonesia, India, and Malaysia. He returns to
Japan August 25. PM Abe will take with him a sizable Japan
Business Federation (Keidanren) delegation. In Indonesia,
Abe will sign an economic partnership agreement. In India,
he will address the Indian Parliament and hopes to bolster an
already close relationship based on shared values and
strategic interests while, at the same time, encouraging
India to seriously address the issue of climate change. It is
unclear whether Abe will offer Japan's support for the United
States-India agreement on the peaceful use of nuclear power.
He is scheduled to announce a 600 billion yen loan to help
construct a high speed freight rail line linking Mumbai,
Delhi, and Kolkata. In a move that may potentially provoke
China, Korea, and others, Abe plans to meet with the son of
Indian Justice Radhabinod Pal, the sole judge on the Japan
war crimes tribunal to dissent from the verdict and declare
all of the Japanese accused of war crimes "not guilty."
Abe's visit to Malaysia will focus on bilateral relations.
END SUMMARY.

--------------
INDONESIA
--------------


2. (C) Prime Minister Abe will arrive in Jakarta August 19.
He plans to boost ties with Indonesia by signing an economic
partnership agreement (EPA) and an environmental energy
cooperation agreement, MOFA Second Southeast Asia Division
Deputy Director Isamu Ishikawa told an Embassy Tokyo
Political Officer. The EPA will include a clause that will
ensure Japan has continued access to Indonesian natural gas
supplies and will require Indonesia to notify Japan prior to
curbing natural resource exports, according to press reports.

Japan will commit to help Indonesia improve its energy
efficiency under the environment and energy cooperation
agreement, Ishikawa explained. Abe,s efforts to move
forward on environmental cooperation with Indonesia is meant
to signal his ongoing commitment to stepping up international
cooperation on climate change; Abe is raising environmental
issues during all of his summit meetings and Japan will
emphasize climate change during the 2008 G-8 Summit, Ishikawa
noted.


3. (U) In addition, the trade pact will eliminate tariffs on
about 92 percent of bilateral trade by value, according to
press reports which indicate 96 percent of Japanese exports
to Indonesia will become tariff-free, while about 93 percent
of Indonesian exports to Japan will be exempt from tariffs.
Japan will immediately remove tariffs on Indonesian forest
products and shrimp and will expand imports of tropical
fruit. Indonesia will remove tariffs on Japanese steel
products used in the automobile and energy sectors.


4. (C) Prime Minister Abe will also raise bilateral
cooperation on the environment, energy, avian flu, maritime
security, peace building, and will discuss North Korea with
Indonesian President Yudhoyono during a August 20 summit
meeting, Ishikawa said. Japan is contributing to regional
maritime security by providing Indonesia with three patrol
vessels (a move requiring an expansive interpretation of
Japan's ban on arms exports.) Japan recently finished
building one of these vessels and will supply the other two
by the end of the year. PM Abe will make a speech exalting
ASEAN in a bid to increase regional cooperation and will

TOKYO 00003765 002 OF 003


discuss strengthening bilateral economic ties with Vice
President Jusuf Kalla. The members of his business
delegation will accompany him to a Japan-Indonesia Business
Forum in the afternoon. PM Abe will depart Indonesia the
morning of August 21.

--------------
INDIA
--------------


5. (C) India is considered by Prime Minister Abe to be one of
Japan's most important relationships, according to Ryuji
Sakaue of MOFA's Southwest Asia Division. Abe firmly
believes that India and Japan share the same values -
democracy, rule of law - and strategic interests - open sea
lanes in the Indian Ocean and Straits of Malacca - and will
take advantage of his visit to emphasize the need for close
ties. Following his arrival in New Delhi the afternoon of
August 21, he will meet with Indian-Japan Friendship groups.
On August 22 Abe will first meet with newly-elected President
Pratbiha Patil and, later that morning, will address the
Indian parliament. According to Sakaue, Abe plans to use
this opportunity to discuss his vision of the future of Asia
and of the importance of the Indian-Japanese bilateral
relationship, and hopes this will be one highlights of his
trip. Sakaue noted Abe will be the first foreign leader to
address the Indian Parliament since former President Clinton
in 2000, and the first since PM Singh assumed office. That
day he will have lunch with Indian economic organization
members. He will hold senior level talks in the afternoon
and meet with PM Singh at 6:00 PM, followed by a dinner
hosted by Singh. On August 23 Abe will fly to Calcutta where
he will attend the opening ceremony for a new Indian-Japan
Cultural Center and then have lunch with the Governor of West
Bengal. He will depart Calcutta for Kuala Lumpur that evening.


6. (C) Sakaue explained that PM Abe plans to make climate
change a major issue of his visit, and said there are two
joint statements planned, one dealing in general with the
bilateral relationship, and a second "special" joint
statement addressing the environment and energy security.
Abe will urge India to take seriously the subject of climate
change and will encourage cooperation in the fields of energy
savings and infrastructure. In keeping with a major theme
Japan will be pressing at next summer's Hokkaido G-8 summit,
Abe will stress it is important that major emitters, like
India and China, support global efforts to address climate
change.


7. (C) Concerning India's agreement with the United States on
the peaceful use of nuclear power, Sakaue said Japan has not
determined whether it will lend its support, although he
recognized that gaining such support is a major objective for
India. Japan, he explained, needs to know more about how the
accord between India and the IAEA will work, and while he is
hopeful a positive response will be forthcoming, he said it
will be difficult for PM Abe to express a concrete position
during this visit.


8. (C) Enhancing the security relationship between India and
Japan will be discussed, but only in general terms, said
Sakaue. The purpose of the talks will be to confirm that
India and Japan share the same intentions with regard to
naval and other military cooperation.


9. (U) While in India Prime Minister Abe will also announce
the provision of a 600 billion yen ($5 billion) loan over
five years to help facilitate the construction of a 2,800
kilometer high-speed freight railway linking Mumbai, Delhi
and Kolkata, which is expected to be completed in 2012,
according to press reports. In addition, PM Abe plans to

TOKYO 00003765 003 OF 003


finalize a currency swap agreement with India during the
visit.


10. (U) In an ill-considered move that may well provoke
China, Korea, and others, but will be applauded by the
Japanese right wing, Abe is planning while in Kolkata to meet
with the son of Justice Radhabinod Pal, the Indian judge who
sat on the International Military Tribunal for the Far East's
war crimes trials and who was the sole judge who dissented
from the guilty verdicts handed down against the Japanese
defendants. His dissent questioned the legitimacy of the
tribunal and its verdicts, ruling that the court acted in the
spirit of retribution rather than impartial justice and that
the guilty verdicts were an example of judgment by victors
over the vanquished, writing "I would hold that every one of
the accused must be found not guilty of every one of the
charges in the indictment and should be acquitted on all
those charges." Today there is a large monument to Pal at
Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine which includes his photo and quotes
from the dissent. Prime Minister Singh referred to the Pal
dissent as an expression of Indo-Japanese friendship at a
banquet honoring then Prime Minister Koizumi during his visit
to India in April 2005.

--------------
MALAYSIA
--------------


11. (C) Prime Minster Abe will meet with Prime Minister
Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and other senior Malaysian officials
August 24 to discuss bilateral cooperation, peace-building,
the Mindanao peace process, North Korea, the East Asia
Summit, counterterrorism, maritime security, climate change,
and UN reform. 2007 is Japan-Malaysia Friendship year. In
the afternoon he will attend a Japanese-Malaysian business
forum at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel followed by a courtesy
call with the Malaysian King and Queen. He will hold a press
conference in the early evening followed by dinner with Prime
Minister Abdullah bin Ahmad Badawi. He will return to Japan
on Saturday, August 25.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) COMMENT: While PM Abe would probably like to leave
his domestic cares behind, it is unlikely he will be able to
do so. Practically the first thing on his agenda upon his
return to Tokyo will be to announce the new cabinet line-up,
a move that could make or break his plans to avoid being
forced to resign by LDP leaders. Sakaue confided to Embassy
Tokyo that MOFA is concerned the foreign policy implications
of this trip will downplayed by a Japanese media
establishment more interested in asking questions about Abe's
domestic future. However, as the visit has been planned for
some time, so far there has been no political sniping
suggesting that Abe forego the trip while his political
situation at home remains unsettled.


13. (C) COMMENT (continued): As was the case during Abe's
April trip to the Middle East, we are hearing that members of
the business delegation are not happy about being "dragged
along" and are trying to limit their commitment to one or two
of the countries on Abe's list, rather than having to
accompany him for the entire week. END COMMENT.
MESERVE