JAPANESE PLEASED WITH PRIME MINISTER ABE'S TRIP TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 TOKYO 002190

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2017
TAGS: PREL ECON ETRD ENRG XF EG KUNC QA SA AE JA
SUBJECT: JAPANESE PLEASED WITH PRIME MINISTER ABE'S TRIP TO
THE MIDDLE EAST

REF: A. TOKYO 1760


B. RIYADH 965

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Joe Donovan for reasons 1.4(b) a
nd (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: PM Abe's April 28-May 2 visit to the Middle
East was a "great success" which enabled Tokyo to advance its
"Japan and the Middle East: Entering a New Level" policy
goal, according to MOFA contacts. National Security Advisor
Koike told Charge d'Affaires that Abe enjoyed the trip, which
took him to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Egypt.
During his trip Abe announced two major initiatives: a
Japanese-Saudi agreement to allow Saudi Arabia to store oil
in Okinawa storage tanks, and a $1 billion Japanese loan to
Abu Dhabi. In return for both, Japan received assurances of
stable flows of oil. In Egypt, the two sides discussed plans
to collaborate on a science and technology university and the
upcoming Japan-Arab Conference. PM Abe was accompanied by a
business delegation of over 180 high-level representatives.
In addition to advancing commercial interests, PM Abe
discussed with his counterparts political challenges facing
the Middle East region, including Iraq and Iran. Koike said
her impression is that the Gulf states, while concerned about
the situation in Iraq, are more preoccupied by Iran. Abe
reiterated Japan's support for the Maliki government and all
of the joint statements issued after each of the five stops
called upon Iran to comply with United Nations Security
Council resolutions. The joint statements also reflected
Japan's concerns about global warming, North Korea and the
status of abductees, the Middle East Peace Process and
Lebanon, and Japan's desire to obtain a permanent seat on the
Security Council. END SUMMARY.

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"JAPAN AND THE MIDDLE EAST: ENTERING A NEW LEVEL"
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2. (C) Prime Minister Abe's April 28-May 2 visit to Saudi
Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Egypt was characterized
in very positive terms by National Security Advisor Koike and
as a "great success" by MOFA Second Middle East Division
Principal Deputy Director Motosada Matano in separate
readouts provided to Charge and political officer,
respectively. (Note: Commercial and energy aspects of the
visit will be reported septel.) Abe's meetings with the
leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Egypt
were very positive, and the Japanese were impressed by the

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warmth and high level of the receptions they received at all
their stops. Matano said that MOFA believes the trip
successfully advanced Tokyo's theme for the visit, which was
"Japan and the Middle East: Entering a New Level." It is
Japan's hope, he explained, to take its relations with the
oil producing states of the Middle East beyond the
"supplier-buyer" level, and to establish a "multi-layered"
relationship that also includes enhanced commercial relations
as well as increased political dialogue, both on bilateral
and regional issues.


3. (C) During the visit, two substantive agreements were
announced. The first involves a deal between Japan and Saudi
Arabia, whereby the Saudis will store approximately 5.25
million kiloliters, an amount equivalent to 10 days of
Japan's consumption, in tanks located on Henza Island in
Okinawa Prefecture. The second involves an agreement with Abu
Dhabi in which Japan will extend a $1 billion low-interest
loan in return for a steady supply of oil for the next ten
years.


4. (C) With regard to PM Abe's brief stop in Cairo, MOFA
First Middle East Division Director Hideo Sato told political
officer that while he recognized the "real hidden agenda" of
the trip was to assure a steady flow of oil to Japan, he
considered the Egypt portion to be the most important for
establishing long-term Japanese connections to the Middle
East. Underscoring Japan's goal of developing human
potential through education, the two sides discussed plans to
expedite the establishment of the Egypt and Japan University
for Science and Technology (E-JUST). According to this plan,
Egypt will provide the infrastructure while Japan will
provide the faculty. PM Abe and President Mubarak also
discussed the Japan-Arab Conference slated to be held in
Alexandria in November. According to Sato, the plan is bring
over 200 prominent politicians, businessmen, and academics
from around the Arab world to meet with 50 Japanese
counterparts in a "Davos-like" gathering. Sato conceded the
plan is ambitious, but is hopeful that it will help start to
build long-lasting bridges between Japan and the Arab world
that will transcend the current "oil sales only"
relationship. Egyptian Embassy Deputy Chief of Mission Salah
El-Sadek had very little to say about the visit, telling
political officer that the trip to Cairo was really just a
sideshow for the main event: PM Abe's courting of the
oil-rich and commercially prosperous Gulf states.

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CONCERNS ABOUT IRAQ AND IRAN
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5. (C) Iraq and Iran figured prominently in the discussions
Abe had with all the leaders he met. With regard to Iraq,
Koike explained that most of the Gulf leaders are willing to
offer public support for Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki and his
government, even though in reality their feelings about him
are lukewarm. The exception is Saudi Arabia. King
Abdallah's disdain for Maliki, both personally and for his
government, was open and evident, Koike told Charge. The
King told Abe that Iraq's constitution should be amended and
a new leader found. Matano echoed this report, telling
political officer that the King has very negative views of
Maliki, is suspicious of his capabilities to govern, and is
doubtful about whether supporting him is in the best
interests of Iraq. Saudi Arabia believes Maliki leads only
the Shia, is under the influence of Iran, and is not capable
of leading all Iraqis.


6. (C) UAE's Prime Minister Muhammad asserted to Abe that the
only country in the region that truly supports the Maliki
government is Iran, according to Matano. Muhammad said the
Gulf countries all believe that Iran is exercising too much
influence in Iraq and that the smaller countries of the
region all defer to Saudi Arabia's lead regarding attitudes
toward Iraq and Maliki. That said, the GCC countries will
continue to support Iraq, as they have no other choice, and
are hopeful that eventually the situation there will improve.
Muhammad commented to Abe, reported Matano, that although
the United States may have the power to defeat a country, it
lacks the power to rebuild one.


7. (C) Koike reported to Charge that although Iraq is of
concern to the Gulf Arabs, they are more preoccupied with
what is taking place with regard to Iran. In all the
discussions Abe had with the heads of state, it was clear
they are concerned about Iran's rising influence in the
region. They are apprehensive about Tehran's efforts to
become a nuclear power and believe Iranian activists are at
work in their countries sowing the seeds of dissent and
rebellion. That said, they are unsure what to do. They do
not want to further provoke Tehran and are ambivalent about
whether a new, stronger UN Security Council resolution will
be helpful, Koike stated. According to Matano, Egypt shares
the concerns of the Gulf states about Iran, but when
discussing its nuclear program stressed that Israel should be
held to account also. The Qatari leadership delivered the

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same message to Abe. Interestingly, Matano reported that
Saudi King Abdallah, while expressing strong concerns about
Iranian intentions, seemed to be less concerned about
Tehran's nuclear program. The King reportedly told PM Abe
that since the Koran prohibits nuclear weapons, he is certain
Iran's nuclear intentions are purely peaceful. Nevertheless,
the joint statements issued following the visits to all five
countries contained language urging Tehran to comply with
Security Council resolutions 1737 and 1747.

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BUCKING UP THE TROOPS
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8. (C) PM Abe took advantage of his presence in the region to
visit Japanese Self Defense Force units supporting both
Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom. In
Abu Dhabi, he visited with the crews of two Japanese Maritime
Self Defense Force vessels, a destroyer and a supply ship,
which are currently deployed to the Indian Ocean. In Kuwait,
he journeyed to Ali Al Salim Air Base to inspect Air Self
Defense units deployed to support the United Nations and
Coalition Forces in Iraq. Matano said both visits generated
the hoped-for media coverage and photo ops. Koike told
Charge that the morale of the Japanese troops in both locales
is very high.

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OTHER KEY ISSUES
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9. (C) Japan succeeded in winning recognition for its role
in the Middle East Peace Process, making sure that all the
joint statements issued (except the one with Qatar) referred
to its Corridor of Peace and Prosperity initiative in the
West Bank. Support for democracy in Lebanon was also
included in all except the statement with the UAE. The need
for North Korea to address the abductee issue was highlighted
in all, and each of the Arab countries except for Kuwait in
some form pledged support for Japan's bid to win a permanent
seat on the Security Council. Support for the Japan-GCC Free
Trade Agreement, currently being negotiated, was mentioned in
all the statements except for Egypt's, which was also the
case for references to concern about global warming. The full
texts of all the joint statements are available on MOFA's
website, www.mofa.go.jp.

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UNHAPPY BUSINESS DELEGATION
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10. (C) Accompanying Abe to the Middle East was a delegation
of over 180 Japanese businessmen, including nearly 70 CEOs,
who traveled on a government-charted 747. Isao Iijima, policy
secretary to former Prime Minister Koizumi, told us prior to

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the trip that Keidanren -- the preeminent Japanese business
federation -- was not happy about having to send a
delegation, but was effectively dragooned into doing so, as
Abe wanted to make a big impression on his hosts. Keidanren
Director General Nakamura described the trip - his first to
the Middle East - to Economic Minister Counselor as
"mind-boggling." The heat, the religioisity, the perceived
low local work ethic, the enormous contrast in development
across the region all provided points for astonishment.
Nakamura reported that the Japanese executives did not meet
even one local businessman as all their meetings took place
with government officials only. Consequently, although the
impressions of the trip were vivid, the nature and pace of
the trip -- five stops in as many days with only 11 hours in
Cairo -- lead to no noteworthy commercial development.
Matano, commenting to political officer, expressed relief
that none of the business delegation had suffered health
problems due to the heat and pace of the trip. He brushed
off the fact that no deals were made by observing the purpose
of taking the delegation along was simply to familiarize them
with the commercial opportunities to be found in the Gulf
region.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) Japan clearly wishes to play a more prominent role in
the Middle East. However, PM Abe's whistle-stop tour seemed
high on symbolism but short on substance. It gave him the
chance to discuss issues of concern with Gulf and the
Egyptian heads of state and to modestly advance bilateral
relations. The presence of a huge business delegation was
meant to signal Japan's serious intent to take advantage of
commercial opportunities in the Gulf region, but given the
high-speed pace of the trip the impressive list of
businessmen really had no time to do anything other than act
as members of an entourage. For the immediate future, we
predict Japan will continue to support the Maliki government
and reconstruction efforts in Iraq, continue to urge a
diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear standoff, play a

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modest role in attempts to broker useful deals between
parties to the Peace Process, and attempt to take advantage
of commercial opportunities that become available. Tokyo's
major interest in the region will remain ensuring conditions
that enable a steady flow of oil to Japan.
SCHIEFFER