NETHERLANDS/IRAN: NIE DISMAYS DUTCH DIPLOMATS, BUT

S E C R E T THE HAGUE 002037

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2017
TAGS: KNNP MNUC PARM NL IR
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/IRAN: NIE DISMAYS DUTCH DIPLOMATS, BUT
POLICY REMAINS UNCHANGED

REF: SECSTATE 162558

Classified By: DCM Michael Gallagher for reasons 1.5(b) and (d)


1. (S) SUMMARY: On December 4, 2007, Political Counselor and
POLOFF delivered reftel points to Dutch MFA officials Herman
Quarles and Loek ten Hagen, Deputy Director and Senior Policy
Officer at the North Africa and Middle East Department, and
Joan Wiegman, Deputy Director for Nuclear Affairs and
Non-Proliferation Division. Although FM Verhagen supports
continuing pressure on Iran, working level diplomats
expressed dismay that the latest National Intelligence
Estimate (NIE) "raises so many questions" and "makes our
lives more difficult." A leading opposition parliamentarian
also expressed support for continuing pressure on Iran. END
SUMMARY.


2. (S) POLCOUNS and POLOFF delivered reftel!points to MFA
officials Quarles, ten Hagen, and Wiegman on December 4. All
three expressed support for maintaining international
pressure on Iran to comply with its NPT obligations, but were
disheartened by what they felt was a mixed message from the
USG in light of the new report. Wiegman stated twice that the
Dutch believe the West should "keep the pressure on" Iran,
but she and Quarles noted that the NIE "raises so many
questions, including:

-- What should we make of U.S. statements (in the past few
years) that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon?

-- With the international sanctions regime not yet in place,
what made Iran change its behavior in 2003?

-- What evidence supports the conclusion that Iran was
pursuing nuclear weapons before 2003? Will we see more
briefings at NATO with this evidence?

-- Is this a positive signal to Iran? Is anybody telling
them it could be an opportunity for some positive action?

-- What about Israeli PM Olmert's response to the NIE?


3. (S) Quarles looked for positive aspects of the report,
proposing that this might be a "face-saving chance for Iran
to change its behavior," but emphasized that the NIE has
"made our lives more difficult." At the Dutch MFA, "the
pressure is on," particularly for working with parliament.
The report has also "made EU action more difficult,"
particularly given Foreign Minister Verhagen's
forward-leaning support for stand-alone EU sanctions against
Iran if action is blocked at the UNSC. Quarles and Wiegman
noted that Parliament was already asking the Foreign Minister
to justify this position in light of the apparently
diminished Iranian threat. Drawing from reftel, POLCOUNS
emphasized that despite the NIE's assessment regarding
current weapons-related activities, Iran's international
obligations and the need for international vigilance remain
unchanged.


4. (C) Separately, on December 5, the foreign policy
spokesman for the opposition Liberal Party (VVD),Hans van
Baalen, told the ambassador that the NIE shows that U.S.
"democracy is working" and that revealing the report shows
President Bush is operating from a "position of strength."
The NIE does not mean that U.S. policy has failed. Implying
that pressure against Iran is still necessary, Van Baalen
intentionally repeated himself: "after 2003, for the short
term, maybe, Iran decided not to make a bomb, maybe, for the
short term."


5. (U) COMMENT: The Dutch MFA staff were visibly perplexed
by the NIE and sought additional information regarding the
context and history of the current assessment. Whatever
their immediate concerns, however, they are unlikely to lead
to a change in Dutch official policy toward Iran. In a
letter to parliament on December 4, for example, FM Verhagen
stated that "the Netherlands continues to push for diplomatic
efforts promoting Iran's full and immediate compliance with
UNSC resolutions. ...Iran will actively have to work on
restoring international trust in its present and future
program. The NIE ... does not change that. It indicates
that Iran is currently not actively working on developing a
nuclear weapon but does not rule it out for the future."

END COMMENT.
Arnall