NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: CABINET OPTS FOR TWO-YEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 002025

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/WE, EUR/RPM, SCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL NATO AF NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: CABINET OPTS FOR TWO-YEAR
ISAF EXTENSION

Classified By: Ambassador Roland Arnall, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: The Dutch Cabinet announced November 30 the
decision to extend its ISAF mission in Uruzgan province for
an additional two years to August 2010, followed by a four
month "re-deployment" phase so that Dutch Task Force Uruzgan
is withdrawn from Uruzgan by December 2010. By this date,
the Dutch expect NATO to find a new Ally to head the military
aspects of the mission in Uruzgan. Parliament will hold two
hearings on December 6-7, followed by a presentation by PM
Balkenende on December 17, and a parliamentary vote most
likely on December 18. GONL officials have conferred with
parliament members, and are confident the extension question
can be wrapped up prior to the parliamentary winter break on
December 20. End summary.

Decision Letter to Extend
--------------


2. (SBU) The Dutch Cabinet announced its decision to
Parliament to extend its ISAF mission in Uruzgan via an
"Article 100" letter, which was sent to Parliament following
the Cabinet meeting on November 30. According to the
executive summary of the Article 100 letter, the current
"overall picture (in Uruzgan) is mixed," with some aspects
proving disappointing, while other aspects having gone better
than expected. The letter notes that both NATO and the
Afghan government have requested the Dutch to extend, and
that the Dutch had asked for "NATO solidarity," i.e.,
contributions from other NATO Allies to help the Dutch in
Uruzgan. The Article 100 letter noted that these
contributions were "more limited than we had hoped," but that
the French, Slovak, Hungarian and Czech contributions are
greatly appreciated. Contrary to earlier statements by Dutch
officials, the letter also includes a note on the Georgian
offer, but does not specify if the Dutch will accept it.
Finally, the letter suggests that additional offers may be
possible in the run-up to the new mission. (Note: In a
November 28 meeting with a visiting U.S. Congressman, Deputy
POLDIR Wim Geerts suggested that the Dutch hoped the Danes
would provide some F-16s beginning next summer. End note.)
As a result, the Dutch military presence in Uruzgan can be
reduced after the current mission mandate ends in August 2008.


3. (SBU) The letter notes that the Dutch took several points
into consideration, including NATO security, solidarity and
credibility, the need to support the Afghan government, a
sense of solidarity with the Afghan people, and a concern for
human rights and poverty reduction. According to the letter,
these factors justify an ongoing Dutch military and
diplomatic presence, and continued development cooperation
efforts in Afghanistan and Uruzgan. Finally, the letter
notes that a continued mission in Uruzgan serves Dutch
national security interests.


4. (SBU) The letter makes clear that the Dutch will retain
military responsibility for Uruzgan until August 1, 2010, and
states "by then, the Netherlands will have borne the burden
as a NATO partner." As of August 1, 2010, the Dutch will
begin to re-deploy Task Force Uruzgan, to be completed by
December 1, 2010. The Cabinet emphasized in the letter that
NATO is responsible for a "timely filling of the existing
requirements for ISAF, including Uruzgan," i.e., another Ally
must step up and take the lead by this time.


5. (SBU) The Article 100 letter notes that the new mission
will change in several ways. First, more resources will be
invested in supporting and promoting reconstruction efforts
by the Afghan government and NGOs. Support and guidance for
the development of effective governance will also be
intensified. Second, training and monitoring of Afghan
security forces will be intensified, with the aim of ensuring
effective control by the Afghan army and police of the main
populated areas and connecting roads.


6. (SBU) To support the mission, the letter notes that the
Dutch will contribute military forces in the form of the
Uruzgan Task Force Uruzgan, consisting of the provincial
reconstruction team (PRT),a battle group and logistical
support, two Operational Mentoring and Liaison Teams (OMLTs),
five Apache helicopters and four F-16 fighters. That said,

the letter notes that the Dutch will increase the civilian
presence in the PRT, including the possibility that the PRT
may eventually come under civilian leadership. Finally, the
Dutch will assume command of RC-South for nine months from
August 2008. In all, including contributions for other
countries, the Dutch anticipate deploying 1,350 to 1,450
troops to Afghanistan under the new mission.


7. (SBU) Finally, the Article 100 letter focuses on the role
of the international community, and the London Compact's
expiration at the end of 2010. The new Dutch mission's
nature and duration is aimed to correspond as much as
possible with the international calendar for Afghanistan, in
addition to Afghan presidential and parliamentary elections
in 2009 and 2010. While the Dutch anticipate that the
international community will need to remain involved in
Afghanistan for many years, they anticipate that NATO's
post-2010 role will gradually develop towards a military
support mission focusing on training, equipping, and advising
the Afghan National Army (ANA) and Police (ANP) -- this
should be a main subject of discussion at the NATO Bucharest
summit in April 2008.

All We Can Handle
--------------


8. (C) In a closed-session outbrief for the diplomatic
community on November 30, MFA Security Affairs Chief Robert
de Groot and MOD Senior Advisor for Afghanistan David van
Weel walked through justifications for the decision to
extend. De Groot noted that following the Cabinet decision,
the GONL would send the Article 100 letter to parliament, and
PM Balkenende, FM Verhagen, Defense Minister van Middelkoop,
and Development Minister Koenders will give press conferences
justifying the decision. The ministers will emphasize that
the GONL decided to extend to help the people of Afghanistan,
and to help ensure the security of the Netherlands.


9. (C) De Groot said parliament will hold two hearings: a
closed session on December 6 with SACEUR and Dutch CHOD Gen.
Berlijn, and a public hearing on December 7 including Afghan
parliamentarians, residents of Uruzgan, NGOs, military labor
unions, and former commander of RC South Gen. van Loon.
Parliament will submit questions to the GONL on the decision
to extend by December 11; the GONL expects more than 300
questions. Finally, de Groot said PM Balkenende will present
the extension case to Parliament on December 17, followed by
one last debate in Parliament prior to a vote. De Groot said
a majority of parliamentarians are in favor of wrapping up
the extension decision prior to the winter break on December

20.


10. (C) Both de Groot and van Weel emphasized that the
extension will be very difficult for the Dutch, but that the
Cabinet has determined how financially the extension will be
sustained. That said, de Groot suspected that the cost of
the new mission will be a major point of contention with
opposition members in Parliament. At the very least, de
Groot emphasized, the new mission will be an incredible
strain on the Dutch military -- "whatever happens, we will
stop being the military lead in Uruzgan by August 2010 -- we
will have had all we can handle."


11. (C) Van Weel noted that the MOD will be receiving
financial help for the mission from a number of different
sources, including 270 million euros per year from the MFA.
De Groot joked that the MFA will need to start closing down
embassies as a result. Van Weel also noted that 200 million
euros per year is allocated for peacebuilding measures out of
the national budget -- he expected the MOD to receive all of
that for the new mission, and will likely still need to raid
the national budget in "yet to be determined areas -- we will
get creative."

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) One hurdle down, with only the parliamentary debate
to go. While the opposition is making considerable noise to
delay the hearings until after Christmas, most in parliament
want to "get it over with already." Public support for an

extension remains low, and the parliamentary debate will be
very contentious. But we believe with the Cabinet fully on
board that we are finally getting close to an extended Dutch
mission in Uruzgan. GONL officials are quick to note, "two
more years, and that's it." But the Article 100 letter is
sufficiently vague that any number of possibilities could
arise in 2010, including perhaps a new Dutch mission
elsewhere in Afghanistan -- much will depend on the
discussion among Allies at the NATO Bucharest summit in April

2008.
Arnall