NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: POSITIVE NEWS ON MARGINS

S E C R E T THE HAGUE 001925

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

OSD FOR N. LUCAS
STATE FOR EUR/RPM, EUR/WE, SCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL NATO AF NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: POSITIVE NEWS ON MARGINS
OF EUROPEAN COUNCIL MEETING

REF: GRUBB-LUCAS 10/22/07 E-MAIL

Classified By: CDA Michael Gallagher, reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (S) Summary: The GONL received potentially good news from
France on the margins of the European Council meeting in
Lisbon on October 18-19. According to Dutch officials,
French President Sarkozy agreed in a meeting with Dutch PM
Balkenende to deploy up to two Operational Mentoring and
Liaison Team (OMLTs) to Uruzgan in August 2008. The GONL is
keeping the potential French contribution under tight wraps
as Sarkozy is apparently facing considerable internal
pressure not to assist the Dutch. The Dutch intend to firm
up details with the French this week at the NATO Defense
Ministerial in Noordwijk. The GONL continues to hope that
Norway will provide ground support in Uruzgan, and to work
with Prague on possible contributions. The GONL is carefully
reviewing a surprise offer from Georgia consisting of 200
troops and helicopter support -- given concerns about
Georgian capabilities, Moscow's reaction, and Georgian NATO
membership aspirations. End summary.

French Contribution Looks Promising?
--------------


2. (S) Dutch MOD Senior Advisor for Afghanistan David van
Weel (please protect) said Dutch Defense Minister van
Middelkoop met with French Defense Minister Morin on October
18 on the margins of the European Council meeting in Lisbon.
According to van Weel, Morin and van Middelkoop discussed the
possibility of two French Operational Mentoring and Liaison
Teams (OMLTs) being deployed to Uruzgan in August 2008. Van
Weel said Dutch Prime Minister Balkenende and French
President Sarkozy met October 19, and Sarkozy agreed to send
one or two French OMLTs in support of a Dutch extension. In
a subsequent conversation with POLCOUNS, Karel van Ooosterom
(PM Balkenende's Senior Foreign Affairs Advisor) confirmed
that Sarkozy had offered one or two OMLTs in his discussion
with Balkenende. Van Oosterom stressed, however, that this
was not yet a "done deal." The Dutch, he added, had the
impression that Sarkozy still faced considerable opposition
to this proposal at home, and would have to use his personal
influence to push it through. MFA Director for Security
Affairs Robert de Groot told POLCOUNS October 22 that the
French MOD oppose the Dutch request, and is pushing Sarkozy
to backtrack on the OMLT offer. The Dutch plan to keep the
details of the discussion "very close hold" and hope to work
out "final" details with the French at the Noordwijk NATO
Defense Ministerial on October 24-25.

Aide Memoire Status Report
--------------


3. (SBU) On October 22, Van Weel requested Post forward an
aide memoire (reftel) to SECDEF on behalf of the Dutch MOD
prior to the NATO Defense Ministerial. The aide memoire
provides an update regarding possible partners, and notes
firm commitments from the Slovaks (50 troops) and Hungarians
(one OMLT). On France, the memoire notes that President
Sarkozy has offered two OMLTs for Uruzgan; this offer was
made to Balkenende on October 19. The Dutch and French will
discuss the offer further on the margins of the ministerial.
The memoire also updates progress on potential contributions
from others, including Australia (an OMLT; medical personnel
possibly with Singapore); Georgia (200 troops); Czech
Republic (an OMLT and temporary support for the battle group
-- 80 troops); Norway (150 troops for the battle group, PRT
mission team, and an OMLT); Bulgaria (camp protection); and
Denmark (F-16 support). The aide memoire also raises the
importance of the non-combat helicopter bridging capability,
and concludes with the hope that the ministerial expedites
the decision making process in potential troop contributing
countries.

More Work with Czechs Needed
--------------


4. (C) De Groot, who participated in the October 18
delegation to Prague, said prospects of a Czech contribution
"look promising." Van Weel said the Dutch delegation's trip

led to several openings, including the possibility of Prague
sending 100 troops in support of the Dutch as part of force
protection for the company battle group. Van Weel said,
however, that it was clear "more work needed to be done."
MFA Deputy Task Force Uruzgan Coordinator Eric de Feijter
added that the initial Czech offer "did not quite fit" into
the Dutch plan, but that the Dutch would continue to work
with Prague on a Czech contribution. According to van
Oosterom, Balkenende did not get as much as he had hoped from
the Czechs in Lisbon, but stressed that the Dutch would
continue pressing.

Whoa, Georgia!
--------------


5. (C) De Feijter said the Dutch were completely surprised
and overwhelmed by the Georgian offer of 200 troops plus
helicopters as part of any Dutch extension mission. He said
the Dutch have some initial hesitations regarding Georgia's
capabilities, and how Georgian participation might be viewed
by Moscow. De Feijter noted Dutch reservations regarding
extending the NATO membership action plan (MAP) to Georgia at
next year's summit in Bucharest. He emphasized that "no
deal" had been struck with Tbilisi in that regard. Instead,
the Dutch will thank Georgian President Saakashvili for his
generous offer and promise a thorough review of how best to
use it. Given USG experience with Georgia, de Feijter said
the GONL will likely approach us through military channels
for a "frank and honest" assessment of Georgian capabilities.
De Groot questioned what the Dutch would get -- Russian or
U.S. trained Georgian troops? He suggested that the
Georgians could help "fill some gaps," but ultimately doubted
they could fill one of the seven modules.

What about Norway?
--------------


6. (S) According to van Oosterom, the Dutch have not yet
given up on the Norway, but recognize that coalition dynamics
in Oslo are a complicating factor. Since PM Balkenende's
direct approach to Norwegian PM Stoltenberg failed to produce
any additional troops, the Dutch are hoping an approach from
Minister of Development (Labor Party) Koenders to his
(Socialist Left) counterpart might convince the Norwegians to
commit resources to a "development" goal -- e.g., a PRT. De
Groot described an on-the-ground Norwegian contribution as
"critical," and that the Dutch would keep pushing Oslo --
especially as a French-Norwegian combined contribution would
virtually assure the Dutch extend in Uruzgan.

Mixed Signals From Sofia
--------------


7. (C) De Groot confirmed that Balkenende had planned but did
not meet with Bulgarian PM Stanishev in Lisbon following
"mixed signals" from Sofia. According to de Groot, the Dutch
ambassador in Sofia has approached the Bulgarians at both the
political and military level, and has received what he
described as "ambivalent interest." Per DASD Cagan and
Embassy Sofia reporting, the Dutch are aware of our
recommendation to pursue Bulgarian help at higher political
levels. Yet, given the seemingly lukewarm response received
thus far, and following the failed phone call to Norwegian PM
Stoltenberg, the Dutch are reluctant to engage their PM
without a better sense of where Bulgaria stands. De Groot
noted that Dutch CHOD Gen. Berlijn had sent a letter to his
Bulgarian counterpart assuring that the Dutch would help with
training and equipping issues, and are awaiting a response.

Comment
--------------


8. (S) If it pans out, a French contribution of one or two
OMLTs to Uruzgan gives the Dutch a credible third partner in
Uruzgan, and tips the scales in favor of extending. Yet
Dutch interlocutors continue to hold out hope that Norway
will agree to contribute a significant force on the ground in
Uruzgan. According to van Oosterom, a "package" containing
French and Norwegian contributions would have the best chance
of winning quick approval in Cabinet and Parliament. The

current timeline calls for a decision by Cabinet in
mid-November, with Parliamentary debate most likely
concluding 3-4 weeks later. The Dutch will continue to work
with the Czechs, Bulgarians and Romanians to provide further
pieces to the mission.

Gallagher