HONDURAN NATIONAL PARTY CONVENTION REFORMS FALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000469

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAN NATIONAL PARTY CONVENTION REFORMS FALL
SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Frank Penirian. Reason: 1.4(
d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The National Party (NP) held its annual
convention in San Pedro Sula on March 10-11, 2007. Before
the convention, there was speculation the NP Party President,
Pepe Lobo, would be pressured to resign from the Presidency
in order to run fairly in the next national elections in 2009
and/or dismiss former President Rafael Callejas and Osvaldo
Ramos Soto from the Political and Judicial Committees,
respectively, to make room for a new, young leader. Lobo did
neither. Instead, the NP instituted a number of structural
reforms in order to open and broaden the party base and
increase party discipline. Without resolving the split
between Lobo and Callejas, it appears that the NP is not on a
path of real reform but rather just closing ranks. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) The dispute between the two major factions of the
National Party (NP) was not resolved at its annual convention
in San Pedro Sula on March 10-11, 2007. One group is led by
party boss and former President, Rafael Callejas, who still
enjoys popular support despite corruption scandals including
the revocation of his U.S. visa last year. The other group
is headed by NP President Pepe Lobo, who lost to Mel Zelaya
in the 2005 national elections. Callejas and his old guard
supporters such as Osvaldo Ramos Soto do not like Lobo
because they believe he cannot win in the future either and
because members of Lobo's inner circle were involved in a
recent scandal involving funneling Congressional funds to
their NGOs. On the flipside, Lobo and his supporters were
angered when Tonio Rivera, minority deputy leader in
Congress, wanted to become the minority leader in place of
Rodolfo Irias Navas, whom Lobo supports. Callejas is
supporting candidates like Mario Canahuati and Oscar Alvarez,
not for change but to keep control of the party. Besides
himself, Lobo supports such candidates as Roberto Ramon
Castillo (cousin of Callejas),Jesus Flores, Mario Facusse
(cousin of former President Carlos Flores) and Africo Madrid,
but they have little support.


3. (C) Before the convention, some were calling for Lobo to
resign from his position as President of the NP in order to
run fairly in the 2009 elections; others wondered whether
Lobo would remove Callejas as head of the Political Committee
and Soto as head of the Judicial Committee to make room for a
new leader. Lobo did not make any of these moves at the
convention. The membership of the two committees were
increased, which may diminish some of Callejas' control, but
Callejas is likely to continue to undermine Lobo behind the
scenes. Allying himself with Miguel Pastor, who lost to Lobo
in the 2005 primary elections and has many legal problems in
Tegucigalpa from when he was mayor of the city, Lobo and the
other party leaders attempted to give the impression of unity
at the convention despite this major internal dispute.


4. (U) At the convention, the NP expanded the numbers of the
central committee from 15 (nine for Lobo and six for Pastor
as decided at the 2005 convention) to 25 in order to open up
the party at the top. The number of delegates were increased
from 128 to 500 to represent all 298 municipalities in order
to broaden the base of the party. Representation of women
and youth were increased, and independent candidacies,
political alliances and voting from overseas are now allowed.
Sanctions against disloyal party members, called aval
partidario, were strengthened. Finally, NP committees at the
local level were established.


5. (C) COMMENT: Despite these reforms to open and broaden
the NP, it appears that the party simply is closing ranks.
During the convention, Lobo, perhaps out of fear of Callejas,
did not clear the way for a new young candidate akin to
Callejas' MONARCA (Movimiento National de Rafael Callejas) in
the 1980s, and neither are there any promising new candidates
on the horizon. One possibility for an energetic candidate
would be the current mayor of Tegucigalpa, Ricardo Alvarez,
but, because of his family ties to Callejas, he likely would
not engender support from Lobo. (NOTE: Alvarez enjoys
considerable popular support nationally, but vows to seek a
second mayoral term as he maneuvers away from the old guard.
END NOTE.) Other potential candidates have little support or
are riddled with corruption charges. Post believes that the
status quo, an election between National Pepe Lobo and
Liberal Roberto Michelleti in 2009, would result in an even
higher rate of voter absenteeism than in 2005, which was
about 50%, and open the door potentially to a populist
movement. Jorge Aguilar, President of one of the small
parties, PINU, believes that both the national and liberal
parties simply are closing ranks as they are not
ideologically based, collude with one another on issues such
as corruption, and are supported by the same economic powers,
like a single party system. Because the dispute between

Callejas and Lobo at the convention was not resolved, the
prospects for meaningful NP change are not promising. END
COMMENT.
FORD