HONDURAN NATIONAL CONGRESS PASSES MIXED BAG OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 001945

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAN NATIONAL CONGRESS PASSES MIXED BAG OF
ELECTORAL REFORMS

REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 1915

B. TEGUCIGALPA 0469

Classified By: Charge' d'Affairs a.i. James Williard, reasons 1.4
(b &d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Honduran National Congress approved new
electoral reforms on December 20, 2007, in late-night,
closed-door discussions only a few days after the Supreme
Court ruled that the President of Congress, Roberto
Michelleti, could run for President (ref. A). With
substantive changes on the margins, the reforms are perceived
as a blow to President Manuel "Mel" Zelaya, who some believe
desires to stay in power. The most immediate impact is the
rescheduling of the primaries three months in advance to
November 2008, which will weaken the President, impede new
candidacies, avoid conflict with congressional appointments
and place Honduran selections ahead of elections in El
Salvador. The weakening of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal
may re-politicize the institution for relatively little in
savings, but new public financing of elections potentially
could have positive effects. The reforms also decentralize
vote counting, include national observers, and allow mayoral
and congressional candidates to run independently or form
alliances. Districting and a return to party-line voting are
noticeably absent in the reforms but could appear in the
dictamen (report). Former President and Liberal Party leader
Carlos Flores is worried that the new measures, by coming on
the heels of Michelleti's victory, increase the chance that
Zelaya will react strongly against them. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) After a short debate that excluded direct input from
civil society and the small parties, the Honduran National
Congress at 2:00 a.m. on December 20, 2007, passed changes to
42 articles of the electoral law. This was the first time
since 2004, preceding the 2005 elections, that the electoral
law has been reformed. At that time, in a broad coalition
with civil society, the attempt was to open up the system by
enabling voters to choose their candidates directly instead
of by party line, thereby loosening the grip of the economic
elite on the National Congress. As many in the old guard
then were voted out of office and newcomers took over in the
Presidential Palace, the political establishment has engaged
in a concerted effort to return to the old days. Only six
days after the Supreme Court overturned the reform to Article
240 of the Constitution that prevented the Presidents of the
National Congress and Supreme Court from running for the
Presidency (ref. A),the National Congress rushed through
this latest package of electoral reforms. The National
Congress could have waited until the end of the current
Congressional session in January 2008 to pass the reforms and
still ratify them in the next session in time for the
2008/2009 elections, which former President Carlos Flores
told the Ambassador would have softened the blow to President
Zelaya.


3. (C) The electoral reforms approved by the National
Congress can be divided up into the following five areas:
Primary Elections, Electoral Tribunal, Public Financing,
Scrutiny and Participation.

-- Change of Date of the Primaries: Under the new reforms,
primary elections will be rescheduled for November 16, 2008,
instead of February 20, 2009, a full year ahead of the
general elections, ostensibly to avoid conflicting with
Supreme Court, Attorney General, and Supreme Accounting
Tribunal appointments and to spare Hondurans from an election
season over the holidays. President Zelaya complained to the
Ambassador that the change will prejudice the campaign of
Mario Canahuati, former President of the business association
COHEP and his second choice for the nomination. Showing a
lack of understanding of the campaign financing part of the
reforms, President Zelaya also complained in the press that
the new primary date will damage the economy as candidates
will be requesting campaign contributions from business
leaders earlier than expected. National Party leader Pepe
Lobo stated publicly that the move would help dissuade
President Zelaya from trying to stay in power beyond his term
by shortening the period in office of some of his key
advisors like Liberal Party President Patricia Rodas and
hastening the naming of a new nominee for the Liberal Party.
The lengths of the primary and general election campaign
seasons remain unchanged, and municipal elections still will
fall on the same date as those of the National Congress and
President.
-- Weakening of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE): The
TSE now will operate at full capacity only two years prior to

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the general elections (the body currently operates that way
continuously),which will save about one million USD a month
in the off season. The timing of the reduction is curious,
given that the TSE is supposed to be moving into a new
building that cost USD 11 million. More importantly, it
undermines the TSE's sustainability and institutional
credibility. Guillermo Casco Callejas, Coordinator of the
Civil Alliance for Democracy, said publicly that the
reduction hurts the democratic process. Indeed, it will
likely re-politicize the institution. In the 2005 general
elections, TSE Magistrates played a key role in ensuring free
and fair elections by maintaining a semblance of objectivity.
Two of the three smaller parties, the PINU (socialist) and
UD (communist),were displeased for being excluded once again
from leadership positions in the institution.

-- New Public Campaign Financing: The electoral reform
stipulates that in every election year, one percent of the
national budget will be allocated to finance political
parties based on their percentage of votes in the previous
elections. If properly managed and controlled, this
potentially could have positive results by inhibiting the
financing of campaigns by organized crime or outside sources
such as the Sandinistas or Hugo Chavez. It is alleged that
in the previous elections, both President Zelaya and Pepe
Lobo received significant funding from questionable sources,
including narcotraffickers. Guillermo Casco Callejas
believes that with this reform, there no longer should be any
excuse for lack of financial reporting. In fact, he said
that parties should receive this public financing only on
condition that they prepare three financial reports as part
of the agreement (before, during and after the election).
The TSE will be the entity responsible for supervising the
auditing of these funds.

-- Voting Scrutiny: Committees of national observers are
now included in the reform. USAID supported this initiative
during the last elections, which proved to be a good
mechanism to ensure transparency at polling stations. In
addition, the counting of the vote will occur at the
municipal level and will be supervised by the departments
(states) and verified by the TSE. This will diminish the
role of the military in transporting ballots to a central
location. In the last elections, the army apparently did a
good job with this. However, the Zelaya Administration has
extended the role of the military into civilian matters such
as helping to run the public electric company ENEE. Also,
questions have been raised as to why the President recently
reappointed Commanding General Vasquez Velasquez for another
three years, well beyond his mandatory retirement age.

-- Participation: The new reforms allow for independent
candidacies, alliances and coalitions for mayoral and
congressional candidates, but not for the presidential
candidates. This is another relatively small step in the
attempt by the major parties, such as efforts at the National
Party Convention earlier this year (ref. B),to at least
appear to be opening up the system while really closing ranks
behind the scenes. The percentage of women required to be in
party leadership--currently 30 percent--was not/not increased
in the current reforms.


4. (C) Also noticeably absent was a return to some type of
party-line voting, such as a mixed ballot in which the direct
vote would be maintained, which would have been the most
obvious way for the old guard to consolidate power. There
also were proposals for districting, at least starting in the
departments of Francisco Morazan (Tegucigalpa area) and
Cortes (San Pedro Sula area),but for now the proportionality
quotients used in the previous elections for determining
winners are unchanged. It was feared that the smaller
parties would disappear with districts, but new formulas to
ensure their survival could be devised. Such proposals could
appear in the final report (dictamen) of the electoral
reforms.


5. (C) COMMENT: The electoral reform package is a mixed bag
of potentially positive and negative changes that Post
believes basically maintains the status quo and keeps
democracy going in Honduras. Some of the positive moves like
the rescheduling of the primaries for November 2008 and
public financing of campaigns were in large part in reaction
to concerns about the Zelaya Administration. The early
primaries have the added benefit of limiting the influence of
elections in neighboring El Salvador on the selection of
Honduran candidates. The most significant setback is the
weakening of the TSE, which may enable the old guard to
reassert its control of elections in the future. The other
reforms in vote counting and participation are relatively
modest in scope. Post emphasized to political and
Congressional leaders the need to strengthen institutions and
increase transparency, but our message got somewhat diluted
in the rush to deliver a political blow against President
Zelaya and regain control of the electoral process by the old
guard. National Human Rights Commissioner Ramon Custodio
commented that the reforms fall short of perfecting democracy
and reflect instead political expediency. He believes it
would have been better for the National Congress to focus on
legislation such as the consumer protection bill that has a
real chance of helping the average Honduran. The electoral
reforms passed by the National Congress still have to go
through the Style Commission (official transcription) before
we know for certain the full extent and potential impact of
the changes. END COMMENT.
WILLIARD