SUPREME COURT VOTES TO ALLOW PRESIDENT OF CONGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 001915

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HO
SUBJECT: SUPREME COURT VOTES TO ALLOW PRESIDENT OF CONGRESS
MICHELETTI TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT

REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 0906

B. TEGUCIGALPA 1909

Classified By: Ambassador Charles Ford, Reasons 1.4 (b & d)


1. (C) Summary: On December 12 the Constitutional Court was
unable to muster a unanimous decision in the President of
Congress Roberto Micheletti case. President Manuel Zelaya
was able to manipulate this outcome and saw this as a
personal victory. This forced the case to go to the entire
plenary of the Supreme Court, who rendered a "knock-out"
decision with lightning speed in two days. The court found
in favor of Micheletti, thus allowing him to run for
President in 2009. Micheletti celebrated but then got down
to business, saying that all the stalled legislation in the
Congress, including the consumer protection law and telecoms
reforms, will now be considered. Micheletti also proposed
three reforms to the electoral law: mixed single party and
individual votes on the ballots; moving the primaries to
November 2008, and abolishing Vice Mayorships. End summary.


2. (C) On December 12 the Constitutional Court, comprised of
five Supreme Court magistrates who consider only cases
regarding the Constitution, issued a surprise four to one
decision in favor of President of Congress Roberto
Micheletti's bid to run for President (see ref a). In order
for the decision to be binding, it must be unanimous. The
week before, court member Jose Rolando Arriaga announced in
the press that the decision was unanimous, but he was forced
to retract these statements on December 12. Insider Carlos
Romero of the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) told Poloff
the negotiation process for the future of the TSE, the
Tribunal Superior de Cuentas, the Supreme Court, the Human
Rights Commissioner, the Attorney General, and other
positions had gotten away from President Zelaya, who felt his
interests were not well represented by what had been decided.
Romero said that Zelaya thus called Sonia Malina Dubon, the
wife of one of his closest advisors, Enrique Flores Lanza,
and ordered her to stop the process in its tracks. Dubon did
as she was told, but after 72 hours the groups could not come
to an agreement, so the final decision was split four to one.
Some analysts saw this decision as a victory for Zelaya and
his "Patricios," and a loss by Carlos Flores (who was
supporting Micheletti) and the traditional Liberals.


3. (C) Zelaya and his group celebrated too soon, however, as
the case then went to the plenary of the entire Supreme
Court, which consists of eight Nationalist judges and seven
Liberals, who then reached a decision in a record two days.
All that was needed was majority decision, but the
traditional forces in both the Liberal and National parties
were able to come together and muster a "knock-out" fourteen
to one decision in favor of Congressional President Roberto
Micheletti, ruling that reform 240 to the Constitution was
unconstitutional. As the reform to the Constitution also
disallowed the President of the Supreme Court to run for
President, Supreme Court President Vilma Morales recused
herself from the decision and sent a substitute. Morales
also noted that Micheletti had been her former boss. Dubon
was again the only dissenting vote.


4. (C) The court insists that it only ruled on the question
of whether the President of Congress may run for President of
the Republic, and not on the other reforms to the
constitution approved at the same time. Zelaya, however, has
been quoted as saying he was "studying the implications" of
the decision, and that he was considering doing away with the
position of the Vice President. Legal experts say that since
the office of a person who would take over the position of
President in his absence existed before the reforms, albeit
in a slightly different form (previously there were three
vice presidents),this section of the reform will probably
not be overturned. (Comment: It is well known that Zelaya
does not get along well with his Vice President Elvin Santos,
who occasionally makes public statements or does things
Zelaya does not like when he is out of the country. Zelaya
may just see this as an opportunity to get rid of this thorn
in his side. End Comment.)


5. (C) Upon hearing the announcement, Micheletti celebrated
and then very publicly attended mass, looking pious and
sitting in the front pew, to show his gratitude. His public

message has been surprisingly coherent and low-key, saying
that all of the legislation that had languished in the
Congress would now be considered before the recess, including
the consumer protection law and telecommunications reforms.
He has, however, also publicly stated that the Congress will
consider several electoral reform laws, including:


A. Giving voters the option of making a single vote for their
party (plancha),or voting for individuals;


B. Moving the primary elections to November 2008; and


C. Abolishing the position of Vice Mayor, and establishing
that the losers in mayoral elections are no longer given a
position on the city council.


6. (C) Comment: After months of wrangling and infighting, we
finally have a decision in this case that basically supports
the status quo. This was a battle between the Honduran
establishment and Zelaya and his group of Patricios. The
battle has sucked a substantial amount of power out of
Zelaya, but it has also tapped Micheletti, and many analysts
are saying he might not even win the Liberal primary.
Micheletti himself has told the Ambassador that he believes
he will lose the Presidential election given the mess Zelaya
is creating. National party leader Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo was
glowing at a local holiday party, saying it was a huge
victory. It appears he would like to run against Micheletti,
as he thinks it is a fight he can win.


7. (C) Comment (continued): In regards to the proposed
electoral reforms, we have seen reform lists come out of
NGO's, the College of Lawyers, and various political
analysts, and many of them coincide in the first two points
Micheletti proposed. Moving to a mixed ballot would favor
the established political parties who can muster votes of the
party faithful in exchange for jobs and favors and limit the
need for expensive campaigns funded by narcotraffickers or
Chavez. We expect most of the rural votes to be cast to be
in plancha, while educated urban dwellers may continue to
vote for their favorite individuals. On the issue of making
the primary vote three months earlier, we are concerned that

this will diminish the number of days that NGOs and
International Organizations have to clean up the voters lists
(ref b),but it would also streamline the campaign season and
thus get it over before the holiday season. A cleaned-up
voter list is most important for the general election in
November 2009 as opposed to the internal party elections. A
primary in November would also advantage the front-runner and
traditional candidates (like Lobo) and disadvantage the dark
horses (like Mario Canahuati),who need more time to raise
funds and campaign. As long as Zelaya releases the funding
for the RNP (he is currently holding it hostage),and the
Congress approves major new funding in the 2008 budget, we
think that the change of primary date could be manageable.
End Comment.
FORD