Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TBILISI711
2007-04-02 10:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

EUR DAS MATT BRYZA'S MARCH 29 MEETING WITH

Tags:  PREL ENRG GG AR RU TX UN 
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DE RUEHSI #0711/01 0921021
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 021021Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5901
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000711 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CARC AND EEB/EPC/IEC
COMMERCE FOR 4231/ITA/MAC DANICA STARKS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2017
TAGS: PREL ENRG GG AR RU TX UN
SUBJECT: EUR DAS MATT BRYZA'S MARCH 29 MEETING WITH
GEORGIAN PM NOGHAIDELI

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, reason 1.4(b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000711

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CARC AND EEB/EPC/IEC
COMMERCE FOR 4231/ITA/MAC DANICA STARKS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2017
TAGS: PREL ENRG GG AR RU TX UN
SUBJECT: EUR DAS MATT BRYZA'S MARCH 29 MEETING WITH
GEORGIAN PM NOGHAIDELI

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, reason 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a March 29 meeting with Georgian Prime
Minister Zurab Noghaideli, EUR DAS Matt Bryza discussed the
recent attack on Georgian government buildings in Kodori and
rising tensions in the Gali region, and their relationship to
the debate over the next UNOMIG mandate renewal in the United
Nations Security Council. Noghaideli expressed hope that
Georgian restraint in these areas would earn Georgia more
consideration in the UNOMIG debate. Noghaideli tracked Bryza
down after the meeting to agree to meet with Abkhaz de-facto
prime minister Ankvab. Noghaideli reported to Bryza on his
recent trip to Turkmenistan. He said that Western companies
have an opportunity to develop Turkmenistan's off-shore
natural gas reserves, but they must act quickly. Developing
off-shore reserves may lead to more opportunities on-shore in
the future and to exports to Azerbaijan and into the Southern
Corridor. He believes Turkmenistan's new president,
Berdimuhammedov, is likely to become more authoritarian over
time. He urged the U.S. and EU countries to invite
Berdimuhammedov to visit their capitals, while he is still
open to new ideas. He complained that Azerbaijan's monopoly
on transport through the Caucasus is becoming an obstacle to
attracting transport of oil and gas through the Caucasus from
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. An April 4 trilateral meeting
with Kazakhstan, Georgia and Azerbaijan will address this
problem. Noghaideli said that Armenia's close relationship
with Russia is costing it economically and politically. End
Summary.

UNOMIG RENEWAL RESOLUTION
--------------


2. (C) DAS Bryza assured Noghaideli that the United States
will take a firm line with Russia in the debate on renewal of
the UNOMIG mandate in the United Nations Security Council
(UNSC). The Russians will not be allowed to insert language
questioning Georgia's right to be in the Kodori Gorge or the
right of IDP's to return to the whole of Abkhazia, not only

Gali, he said. The resolution calls for cooperation between
UNOMIG and CIS peacekeepers and for more confidence building
measures as agreed by the Group of Friends. While the USG
will push back hard in response to Russian pressure, Bryza
warned that if the U.S. stance is perceived as too
anti-Russian, it will undercut U.S. credibility among the
Friends and make it more difficult to get a good resolution
in the UN.


3. (C) Noghaideli expressed resentment at the Russians'
ability to shell Georgian buildings in Kodori and then use
the attack to portray Georgia as unstable in the leadup to
the renewal of the UNOMIG mandate in Abkhazia. Georgia's
restraint is being used against it, he said. Bryza said that
although the USG is convinced that Russia was involved in the
March 11 Kodori attack, it is unlikely the UN report will
clearly acknowledge their involvement. Georgia's response to
the provocation was exactly what was required, and much
better than its highly public arrest of the GRU agents in
October 2006. Noghaideli said that Georgia feels it is
getting very little from its show of restraint after Kodori.
If, for example, the resolution condemns the move of the
Abkhaz government-in-exile to Kodori, it will force Georgia
to reconsider its behavior.


4. (C) Bryza told Noghaideli that in a recent meeting with
Russian Foreign Minister Karasin, Under Secretary Burns
directly criticized Russia's more aggressive attitude toward
Georgia, and defended Georgia's right to be in Kodori and its
responsibility to provide security for its residents. The
USG is pushing the UNSC to "condemn", rather than "express
concern" about the March 11 attack. Karasin did not dispute
Georgia's right to administer to its citizens in the Upper
Kodori, though he did call for Georgia to "rationalize" its
police presence there. Noghaideli speculated that Karasin
was unaware of the Kodori attack, but that the highest levels
of the Russian government had approved it nevertheless.
Bryza observed that Karasin's claim that the Georgians
brought the attack on themselves was unacceptable.

TENSIONS IN GALI
--------------


5. (C) Bryza said the USG is worried by recent violent
incidents in Gali, including the arrest on drug charges of
Abkhaz police official Chakabaria by Georgian law
enforcement. Noghaideli was reluctant to consider the
release of Chakabaria by Georgia as a confidence building

TBILISI 00000711 002 OF 003


measure. He described him as a "fascist" and "war criminal".
His release, Noghaideli said, would send a message of
impunity, and his exchange for prisoners held by the Abkhaz
would only encourage future hostage taking by the Abkhaz. He
fears the release of Chakabaria will only increase tensions
in the long run and damage the security of the people in
Gali. The GOG will look for ways to decrease tensions, but
it cannot enter into a prisoner exchange, he said.


6. (C) Noghaideli said that although his meeting with Abkhaz
de facto prime minister Ankvab was canceled, the Abkhaz are
now seeking to reschedule it. However, they are seeking
Noghaideli's presence at what is essentially a technical
meeting, and after Ankvab's first refusal to meet, he is not
inclined to attend. The meeting will go forward without his
participation, however. (Note: at the meeting an agreement
on dividing the output of the Enguri power plant will be
signed. The agreement included a GOG commitment to finance
individual electric meters to consumers on the whole
territory of Abkhazia.) Bryza suggested that the agreement
on the Enguri power plant output would be helpful before the
UNOMIG mandate renewal vote, because it would emphasize
Georgia's willingness to cooperate with the Abkhaz. Bryza
urged Noghaideli to meet with Ankvab. Noghaideli resisted,
but he later called Bryza to say he had reconsidered and is
now willing to meet with Ankvab.

FOCUSING ON TRANS-CASPIAN OIL AND GAS
--------------


7. (C) Bryza praised Georgia and Azerbaijan for cooperating
on meeting their energy needs this year, and especially
Azerbaijan's willingness to do without Russian gas and to
stop shipping oil through Novorossisk in response to Russian
demands that Azerbaijan not supply Georgia. Noghaideli said
that Aliyev's decision was mostly a reaction to Russia
offering better terms for its gas to Armenia than to
Azerbaijan. He complained that Azerbaijan is creating
significant problems for transport of oil through the South
Caucasus. He will meet with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan
leaders in Baku on April 4 to discuss the issue.


8. (C) Drawing on his recent trip to Ashgabat, Noghaideli
told DAS Bryza that President Berdimuhammedov wants western
legitimacy. Trips to Europe and America would give him that
and would expose him to the West. Such trips should happen
soon, Noghaideli said. He said that Berdimuhammedov can
become a leader either in the style of Kazakhstan's
Nazarbayev or, less appealingly, Uzbekistan's Karimov --
though he will never be a Saakashvili. Although human rights
advocates may object, Noghaideli said, now is the time to
deal with Berdimuhammedov if the West is to have any
influence as he grows into his new position.


9. (C) Noghaideli said that Turkmenistan has always sought a
balance between Russia and Iran, and now will want to do so
between Russia and the West. He said that Turkmenistan
currently sells its oil on an exchange within the country at
a low price, but forces it to be taken out via Iran and to
Afghanistan. Noghaideli thinks that if Berdimuhammedov
allows the free sale of oil outside the country, 90 percent
of it would go west through the Caucasus -- but for the
problems the Azeris are creating in transportation.
Noghaideli said that Berdimuhammedov will likely be willing
to license western companies to develop Turkmenistan's
off-shore reserves of natural gas. He confirmed that the
Georgian Oil and Gas Corporation will seek such a license.
Oil and gas from fields developed by Western companies will
only flow west, he believes. Bryza said that Noghaideli's
view confirms what the USG is hearing from Turkmenistan. He
mentioned the U.S. hope to export Turkmen gas from Block One,
operated by Petronas, to Baku's ACG field.


10. (C) Bryza mentioned that Kazakhstani Prime Minister
Massimov has expressed interest in shipping compressed
natural gas across the Caspian. Noghaideli again complained
that Azerbaijan has "destroyed a good transport relationship"
over the past year. The Georgian-proposed
Georgia-Azerbaijan-Kazakhstan trilateral in Baku on April 4
is important in that regard, he said. (Note: Massimov is
scheduled to visit Tbilisi as well as Baku.)


11. (C) Noghaideli said that he has given up on getting
Turkey to share its Shah Deniz gas with Georgia. Turkey will
not be ready to receive gas until September, he said.
Georgia is now discussing getting more gas from the Azeris,
who he says have enough to cover Georgia's needs. President

TBILISI 00000711 003 OF 003


Saakashvili is calling Azeri President Aliyev to discuss.
Because of the delays in production of Shah Deniz gas earlier
this year, Georgia did not get as much gas as it had hoped
from Azerbaijan, only 20% of its imports, according to
Noghaideli. Russian gas will be about 50% of supply this
year, he said. The warm winter and good management have
allowed Georgia to reduce its gas consumption this year,
however.

ARMENIAS ONLY FRIEND(S)
--------------


12. (C) Bryza and Noghaideli briefly discussed the situation
in Armenia. When he was in Armenia for the late Prime
Minister Andranik Markarian's funeral, Noghaideli was
surprised to learn that Armenia's government budget is only
USD 1.1 billion, compared to Georgia's USD 2.7 million.
Armenia's decision to rely on Russian support has hurt it
economically and cost it nearly all its friends, other than
Georgia, he said. The Government of Armenia is maintaining
its NATO Individual Partnership Action Plan as a lifeline to
the West, he said.


13. DAS Bryza has cleared this telegram.
TEFFT