ABKHAZIA: UN BRIEFS WESTERN FRIENDS ON KODORI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000489

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRIED, DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM GG
SUBJECT: ABKHAZIA: UN BRIEFS WESTERN FRIENDS ON KODORI
INCIDENT

REF: A. TBILISI 476

B. TBILISI 405

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: On March 12, UN Special Representative of
the Secretary General (SRSG) Jean Arnault briefed the Western
Friends of the Secretary General (FSG) on the alleged rocket
and missile firing on Georgian villages in Upper Kodori on
March 11 (reftel). Arnault said that the Georgians had
agreed to convene the Joint Fact Finding Group to investigate
the incident, although he signaled that the investigation,
like past investigations, may not be conclusive. Separately,
Arnault briefed on the results of the Abkhaz elections, which
he said were a loss for the de facto government of president
Bagapsh. On the upcoming renewal of the UN Observer Mission
in Georgia (UNOMIG),Arnault argued for a substantial
resolution rather than a technical rollover. He agreed to
provide the Western Friends an advance copy of his UN report,
together with recommendations for elements to include in the
resolution. In a separate aside, German Ambassador Flor
raised concerns about MOIA Merabishvili's approach to
reforming the police force. End summary.

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UN TO SEND FACT-FINDING TEAM TO UPPER KODORI
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2. (C) On March 12, UN SRSG Jean Arnault briefed a previously
scheduled meeting of the Western FSG called by the German
Ambassador on the alleged rocket and missile firing on
Georgian villages in Upper Kodori late on March 11. U.S.
Ambassador Tefft, UK Ambassador MacLaren, German Ambassador
Flor and French Ambassador Le Fort attended. Arnault said
that the Georgians had agreed to convene the Joint Fact
Finding Group (including the UN, CIS peacekeepers, Abkhaz and
Georgians) to investigate the incident. There was little
damage, with most of the missiles entering the ground.
Because the evidence would have to be excavated and examined,
he said that the investigation would take some time and, like
past investigations, may not be conclusive. He said that the
CIS peacekeeping force claims that neither it nor the Abkhaz
have the capability to fly helicopters at night. Arnault
said the CIS peacekeepers located closest to Upper Kodori at
"broken bridge" heard small arms fire and saw flares but did
not see helicopters, but he had received separate information
that helicopters were present.

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ELECTIONS APPEAR TO BE A WIN FOR THE OPPOSITION
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3. (C) On the recent Abkhaz elections, Arnault said that the
fact that a relatively small number of incumbents were
re-elected indicates that the elections were a win for the
opposition and a loss for the de facto government of
president Bagapsh. (Note: Georgian Deputy State Minister
for Conflict Resolution Abashidze separately told us March 9
that the Georgians also believed Bagapsh had done worse than
expected in the first round. End note.) A second round will
take place on March 18. Still, Arnault was struck that
despite the setback, members of the de facto government
expressed confidence that the various political parties would
be able to work together, in the same way as the current de
facto government. He assessed that the outcome speaks to the
level of discontent in Abkhazia. In the primarily ethnic
Georgian region of Gali, he said that one parliamentarian was
elected, with the other two seats being contested in the
second round. Arnault assessed that the UN would not be able
to make a full assessment until after the second round. He
noted that participation was "fairly low," and that the
campaign to discourage the ethnic Georgians in Gali from
voting was successful.

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MARCH 1 STUDENT PROTEST AT SHAMGONA
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4. (C) Arnault briefed on the results of the UN investigation
into the March 1 Georgian student protest at Shamgona. He
said that students from Zugdidi - possibly pushed by the
media - organized a protest against the Abkhaz elections in
which they crossed the Inguri River into Abkhaz-controlled
territory and then crossed back and gave an interview to
local media. The students then returned back to
Abkhaz-controlled territory - in what Arnault believes was an
attempt to appear to be ethnic Georgians from Abkhazia - and
when they reached the bank three were arrested by Abkhaz
militia. A fifteen minute exchange of fire ensued in which
no one was hurt. Arnault said he had no reason to believe

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that the protest was not a genuine student protest. Still,
he planned to tell the Georgians and the Abkhaz that although
the UN does not want to stifle free speech, it will
discourage political actions which are likely to lead to
ceasefire violations, such as protests along the ceasefire
line. He said he did not rule out additional spontaneous
activities as the second round of elections approaches.

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UN PREFERS SUBSTANTIAL UNOMIG RENEWAL RESOLUTION
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5. (C) On the upcoming UNOMIG renewal resolution, Arnault
said that he preferred a substantial renewal, which would put
down next steps for the parties, rather than a technical
rollover. He suggested that any resolution should not offer
new requests but simply reiterate previous requests including
a meeting between Saakashvili and Bagapsh. He updated on
progress in pushing the sides to complete a series of steps
before the UN report is submitted at the end of the March
(reftel B). On the Abkhaz side, he said that there would be
an UN Human Rights sub-office in Gali, the formalization of
an UN Civilian Police contingent, and, he hoped, a public
statement by de fact president Bagapsh that there would be no
forced passportization of Gali residents. He said the school
issue is more sensitive. Arnault said that Abkhaz policy is
to require all schools to teach in Russian but that the
Abkhaz do not have the capacity to implement the policy. As
a result, only 4 of the 15 to 19 schools in Gali teach
exclusively in Russian. He offered to check whether the
Abkhaz commitment to start funding schools as of January 1
would require that that those schools teach in Russian.


6. (C) On the Georgian side, he said that there was a joint
UN-CIS peacekeeping patrol of Upper Kodori last week, which
uncovered no new heavy weapons or serious violations. He
said that the Georgians have no offensive capability in Upper
Kodori. He noted that the heavy weapons left by warlord
Kvitsiani remained, although they were stored in one place
and not hidden. He said that the number of police, according
to the Georgians, is now 283, and that the Georgians have
committed to bring the number in line with the ratio of
police to citizens in the rest of the country. Arnault said
the Georgian intention is to be able to hold for 24 hours
against any attack, which UNOMIG Commander Khattak believed
could be done with a smaller force. All agreed that this may
be made more difficult by the March 11 incident. Arnault
said that the issue of notification and verification of all
vehicles going into Upper Kodori remained unresolved. He
said the UN would meet with the Ministry of Interior today to
try to improve the procedure.

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GERMAN RAISES CONCERN WITH MOIA APPROACH TO POLICE REFORM
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7. (C) In a private aside after the meeting, German
Ambassador Flor conveyed to Ambassador Tefft her concern
about MOIA Merabishvili's approach to police reform. She
said that a German police expert attended and presented at a
recent conference in Bakuriani for local police, where
Merabishvili made two statements of concern. On the issue of
combating drugs, Flor reported that Merabishvili directed
police to "criminalize and target the addicted" by depriving
them of their jobs and denying them the ability to
participate in normal life. Of more concern, she said, was
Merabishvili's alleged directive on the police mandate, which
he reportedly said was to create dossiers on "fools" -- the
mentally ill, the opposition, and prostitutes and their
clients. This, she said, sounds like the old KGB. She said
that Merabishvili talked openly, in the open presence of a
German police officer. She said that this would be a
throwback to the old days and not an example of moving toward
European and American standards. The Ambassador agreed.
(Note: We intend to follow-up with Merabishvili. End note.)
TEFFT