TBILISI ELECTIONS UPDATE 12/28/2007

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 003179

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: TBILISI ELECTIONS UPDATE 12/28/2007


Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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ODIHR SECOND INTERIM REPORT
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1. (U) ODIHR's second report was released on December 28 and
notes that the campaign environment has been soured by
allegations of use by Saakashvili of budgetary funds, unequal
campaign conditions, intimidation, and vote buying. OSCE
ODIHR has received information and first hand accounts which
indicate that some of these claims are credible. OSCE/ODIHR
long term observers have substantiated that some
opposition-appointed members of the Precinct Electoral
Commissions (PECs) were not informed about inaugural PEC
meetings. Initial ODIHR media monitoring indicates a lack of
balance in the news coverage of most monitored TV stations,
with Saakashvili generally receiving the most coverage.

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AMBASSADOR RAISES ODIHR CONCERNS WITH BURJANADZE
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2. (C) Ambassador Boden told Ambassadors on December 28th
that ODHIR's major concerns revolve around the allegations of
the use of intimidation during the pre-election campaign.
Boden was recently in Telavi and saw first hand the misuse of
administrative resources by the Deputy Governor, who is still
driving around in his government vehicle while technically on
leave to conduct campaign business. Boden said that ODIHR
has received credible information about the local police in
Borjomi using intimidation against election commission
officials, and about similar incidents in Raja, Gordobani,
Telavi, and Rustavi. The ODIHR legal analyst told the group
the opposition doesn't trust the court system and feels that
they cannot get fair court hearings. Her analysis is that
the local courts stretch the law to the limits in order favor
the majority. Ambassador subsequently raised these issues
with Acting President Nino Burjanadze and recommended that
she address the incidents of intimidation and see that they
are stopped. Burjanadze had not yet seen ODIHR's second
report and seemed genuinely surprised and shocked by
continuing allegations of intimidation. She said that she
had spoken firmly to governors about their responsibilities.
She said she would raise the issue anew with Security Council
Chief Lomaia and call the governors in the regions to get to
the bottom of it.

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SAAKASHVILI REFLECTS ON MISTAKES
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3. (U) Presidential candidate Mikheil Saakashvili was
featured as a guest on Inga Grigolia's late night talk show
on Rustavi-2 on December 27th. Saakashvili fielded
challenging questions from interviewers about his biggest
mistakes. Then, the audience members were asked the same
question. Below are key comments.

-- Saakashvili confessed that handling Irakli Okruashvili's
case was his biggest mistake during the 4-year period of his
presidency. Kakhi Kaladze, a wealthy and well-known Georgian
sportsman who plays soccer for an Italian team, responded
that he felt Saakashvili's biggest mistake was the handling
of the case of Sandro Girgvliani, who was killed by police in
a 2006 incident that became a major controversy.

-- Saakashvili pointed out that he no longer needed a
"revolutionary team" and therefore would plan "a fundamental
shift" of his political team if he is re-elected.
Saakashvili said he would not resort to repression against
his political opponents.

-- Saakashvili presented the priorities of his election
program and promised that he would leave a united Georgia to
the person who succeeded him (after Saakashvili's second
term).

-- Saakashvili promised that during his second term Georgia
would become a member of NATO. He regretfully added that
integration into EU would not be possible during the same
period.

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PRIME MINISTERIAL DEBATE
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4. (U) Inga Grigolia's late night television show on
November 27th also included a second segment featuring point
and counter-point from the current Prime Minister Lado
Gurgenidze and two Prime Minister hopefuls, Salome

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Zourabichvili and Irakli Iashvili, New Rights Party. The
segment featured mainly Zourabichvili who lashed out at the
government with accusations of voter intimidation, lack of
access to media for opposition candidates, and refusal of the
government to address opposition members' concerns.
Gurgenidze adroitly answered the accusations with specifics,
leaving Zourabichvili ill-equipped with generalizations to
counter the administration's points. The overall impression
from viewers we talked to was that the administration soundly
trounced the opposition candidates on substantive issues.

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BODEN PREVIEWS ODIHR REPORT
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5. (C) Ambassador met privately December 26 with OSCE ODIHR
Chief Dieter Boden to discuss the current situation following
the publication of the Patarkatsishvili coup plot tapes.
Boden said he had met earlier in the day with Acting
President Burjanadze to preview for her the second interim
report which would be published by December 28. Boden showed
the Ambassador the current draft of key findings. The most
critical finding was criticism of Saakashvili for improper
use of administrative resources. Boden said that over the
weekend Saakashvili had "opened" a new pipeline in the
Samtskhe-Javakheti region. He had used not only the
Presidential helicopter, but a military helicopter
accompanied him. Boden said he asked Burjanadze why
Saakashvili had opened the pipeline; wouldn't this have been
more appropriate for her as Acting President. Boden said she
acknowledged the point, but did not have a good answer.
Boden said he told her this kind of action will reignite the
debate over improper use of administrative resources. Boden
also intended to raise this with Presidential Spokesman
Bakradze in a meeting later in the evening.


6. (C) Boden asked if the US intended to issue a statement
warning against excesses after the election results were
known. The Ambassador reviewed what he had said to the press
earlier in the day, and said we were finalizing an op-ed
statement for Assistant Secretary Fried. The ambassador said
he was also discussing with the OSCE Rep and other
Ambassadors a possible statement on this issue for the local
OSCE Ambassadors to issue. He said one needed to be careful
with such a statement so that it was not interpreted as
implicit support for Saakashvili. The real problem was that
there were some opposition leaders who are determined to
launch post-election protests no matter what OSCE ODIHR or
other experts say. They have no rational goal in mind, other
than showing their anger toward the "hated Misha." Boden
said he was thinking about the "January 6 problem", saying
that if the final report of ODIHR on the election finds that
the process of the election went well but that there were a
number of problems with the campaign (e.g. misuse of
administrative resources) the opposition will use any
criticism to try and discredit the entire process. Boden
noted in this regard that he had been impressed with the work
of the new CEC Chairman and his dedication to ensuring a free
election. Boden clearly seemed to be already thinking
through his final report, and how it would be received not
just internationally but domestically in Georgia.

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CEC OUTLINES ITS VOTING RULES
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7. (SBU) CEC lawyer Archil Asanashvili briefed us December
26 on the implications of the CEC's new composition (6
opposition-appointed members, 1 from the National Movement,
and 6 appointed by the President and Parliament) for key CEC
decisions during the election. He noted that the CEC is
required to have a two-thirds majority to make certain kinds
of decisions. This was the case recently when the 6
opposition members blocked a plan to organize voting for
Georgian troops in Iraq. (A court subsequently ordered the
CEC to organize such voting, in order to protect the rights
of Georgian soldiers serving abroad.) But for most
decisions, including the certification of results,
announcement of preliminary results, and (with some limited
exceptions) de-certification of any candidates, the CEC is
able to act based on a simple majority of 7 votes.

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IMEDI
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8. (C) Lewis Robertson, General Manager of Imedi TV, told
post press officer that Marty Pompadour, Executive Vice
President of News Corp and President of News Corp Europe, had
made the decision to shut down Imedi. Roberston said he had
argued that the station should not be closed as it had been

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off the air for 35 days and had fought hard to return to
broadcasting. With the staff defections and other threatened
walkouts by employees, it has become problematic to produce
newscasts. Robertson expressed fears about what will happen
on January 6th, wondering whether there would be violence.
He said that Pompadour was going to announce in New York City
that it was News Corp's decision to close the station.


9. (U) Prime Minister Lado Gugenidze said that the decision
to close Imedi was made by the owners, and not the
government. He expressed the hope that the channel will
resume broadcasts soon and that Imedi staff will continue to
work in the usual regime.

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G.I.s Vote
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10. (U) The Tbilisi Defense AttachQ Office is working with
the Central Election Commission to airlift CEC members and
voting materials to Georgian military members in Iraq. The
current plan is for CEC representatives to depart Tbilisi on
2 January and to complete all voting in Iraq and return to
Tbilisi on 6 January. Currently seven members of the CEC are
planning on making the trip; it is unclear at this point if
opposition members will also travel. Post is working to
coordinate helicopter lift for the CEC members from Baghdad
to the nine different locations where Georgian military
members currently serve throughout Iraq.

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Criminal Investigation
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11. (C) The British Charge D'Affaires told Ambassador that
the Georgians are now discussing with British authorities the
Badri Patarkatsishvili case, and specifically whether he
could be arrested for plotting a coup from British soil.
This question has come to light due to the Patarkatsishvili
coup tapes, where he discusses fomenting unrest in Georgia.
At the time of the recordings, Patarkatsishvili was both in
Israel and the United Kingdom. Contrary to some public
statements otherwise, the British government did not tape any
telephone conversations between Patarkatsishvili and others
as it is against British law.

TEFFT