Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TBILISI3177
2007-12-28 12:52:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION GEARING UP FOR THE DAY AFTER GEORGIAN

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM GG 
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VZCZCXRO1139
OO RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSI #3177/01 3621252
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 281252Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8537
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TBILISI 003177 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION GEARING UP FOR THE DAY AFTER GEORGIAN
ELECTIONS

REF: TBILISI 3161

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TBILISI 003177

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION GEARING UP FOR THE DAY AFTER GEORGIAN
ELECTIONS

REF: TBILISI 3161

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: As the election campaign enters its final
week and following a series of events that have strengthened
former president Saakashvili's bid to win the January 5
presidential elections, it is increasingly clear that most
opposition parties are planning not for victory on election
day but for protests on the day after. Until his abrupt
withdrawal from the race on December 27, Badri
Patarkatsishvili's campaign was the starkest voice among this
group. His campaign manager told us flatly that the election
will be falsified and the Georgian people will respond.
Others in the opposition have been less direct but
essentially repeating the same line. Levan Gachechiladze,
presidential candidate of the United National Council (UNC),
a nine party coalition of opposition parties, said publicly
on December 26 that the opposition will not allow former
president Saakashvili to fulfill his intentions to falsify
the elections and prevent people from defending their votes.
Individual parties within the United Opposition, including
former Defense Minister Okruashvili's Movement for United
Georgia, the Conservative Party's Kukava, and Georgia's Way
Zourabishvili are also claiming now that the election will
not be free and fair. They are basing this assessment
largely on complaints about harassment of voters and the
voters' list. Two political parties are striking a more
moderate tone that is not based on calling people to the
streets after the elections. David Usupashvili's Republican
Party (also part of the UNC) privately acknowledged a likely
win by former President Saakashvili, with a view to focusing
on the opposition's longtime goal of increasing its
representation in Parliament. Similarly, David Gamkrelidze's
New Rights' Party, which did not join UNC because, in a
speech on the Parliament floor in November, he said he would
not join in a plan to foment revolution again in Georgia, has
been running on a campaign promoting "stability and

predictability." We have consistently emphasized in every
meeting the importance of reporting instances of concern to
ODIHR and the Government's Task Force. We have also called
on all the parties to respect the result of the election if
ODIHR concludes they were free and fair. End summary.

-------------- --------------
PATARKATSISHVILI'S CAMPAIGN: FOCUS ON THE DAY AFTER
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Prior to the Patarkatsisvili's sudden announcement on
December 27 that he was withdrawing from the race, we spoke
to his new campaign manager, Goga Zhvania, brother of the
late Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania. (Note: MP Galbakhiani,
Patarkatsishvili's former campaign manager, was replaced on
December 25 following the December 24 and 25 release of
videotapes that allegedly revealed a planned coup against
government.) Despite the fact that Patarkatsishvili's
campaign still has no official party, his campaign was
evidently awash in money. Unlike the headquarters of any
other opposition party -- all of which are run down hovels in
remote parts of town -- Patarkatsishvili's headquarters is
located in an opulent building next to Patarkatsishvili's
enormous residence in Tbilisi. With an interior full of
marble, stained glass and oil paintings, it is a beehive of
activity and has what appears to be plenty of staff and
supplies.


3. (C) In a meeting with Poloff on December 26, Zhvania
insisted that the Georgian election would be falsified and
that the people of Georgia would decide how to respond. His
deputy claimed that he knew exactly how the election will be
falsified -- as he was on the Central Election Commission
from 1992-2001 and knew how it was done -- but that this
would remain "secret." (Note: In a separate meeting on
December 24 with the Ambassador, Zhvania said that the
National Movement would use the same technique his brother
had used. End Note.) When asked whether it would be better
to publicize known ways to falsify the results, Zhvania's
deputy said the campaign would make public what they expect a
few days before the elections in order to limit the time in
which the Government could find an alternative way to falsify
the results.


4. (C) Zhvania also expressed concerns about the voters' list
and harassment of local representatives. Poloff encouraged
Zhvania to submit these to ODIHR and the Government Task
Force. He said that a formal complaint about alleged double
listing of some 26,000 voters on the voters' list has
languished at the CEC without response. Zhvania said that
the campaign is now operating in an environment of "terror,"
as officials have been arrested and questioned around the

TBILISI 00003177 002 OF 004


country after the Government's release of the video and audio
tapes. During the meeting, Zhvania's deputy took a call
which he claimed reported on the arrest of a representative
in Borjomi. When asked about the tapes, he said that MP
Galbakhiani was a victim of a government sting operation.


5. (C) He assessed that the release of the tapes would have a
negative impact on Patarkatsishvili's chances in the January
5 election. Poloff urged Zhvania to accept the results of
the elections provided that ODIHR concluded it was free and
fair. Zhvania responded that he knew the result of the ODIHR
report would be positive and that the election would not be
free and fair, no matter what the reports of international
organizations or monitors. He doubted the neutrality of
ODIHR assessments and said flatly that the response would be
up to the Georgian people, not international observers or
organizations.

-------------- --------------
UNITED OPPOSITION: MANY ALSO FOCUSED ON JANUARY 6
-------------- --------------


6. (C) In a December 21 meeting with Poloff, Chair of
Okruashvili's Movement for a United Georgia Tortladze, said
that it was impossible for the elections to be free and fair
as a result of the intimidation that is taking place in the
pre-election period. He noted how his party's offices were
closed by the Government in November, forcing it to take
space in a dilapidated apartment in a hard-to-find part of
town. He alleged that the intimidation is worse in the
regions. Tortladze expressed similar concerns about the
voters' lists which he contended had an additional one
million voters. Poloff urged Tortladze to report to ODIHR
and the Government Task Force any instances of concern. She
also urged the party to accept the results of the election
provided ODIHR assesses them to be free and fair. Tortladze
responded that people would defend their votes if the
elections are falsified.

--------------
KUKAVA DOUBTS ELECTION RESULTS
--------------


7. (C) In a December 26 meeting with DCM, Conservative Party
Chair Kakha Kukava expressed doubts that the elections would
be free and fair even if an ODIHR report may deem it to be
so. He was skeptical of ODIHR reports, saying that each
report has the same carefully worded findings regardless of
election atmospherics. Kukava's main source of
dissatisfaction was with the Central Election Commission's
Chairman Levan Tarkhnishvili, citing him as an administration
insider, and the makeup of the district and precinct
electoral level commissions. Kukava voiced his frustration
at the majority's failure to address the opposition's
concerns, especially the inaccuracies of the voter's list,
and the need to do away with the additional voters lists as a
likely source of election day fraud. He said that the
opposition had met with Acting President Burjanadze and
despite her promises to address issues, there have been no
answers forthcoming. He repeated several times that the U.S.
should do an exit survey and mediate between the majority and
opposition to bring resolution to the points yet unresolved.
He discounted the authenticity of the recently released
recordings of Badri Patarkatsishvili and alleged it was a
stunt by the United National Movement to bring attention to
Saakashvili's campaign. According to Kukava, the tapes
solidify the United National Movement's claims that a "coup
by dark forces" is imminent and strong measures for security
are warranted.


8. (C) Kukava repeated that the opposition would organize
protests on January 6 if the elections results were unfair.
He said that any protests would be peaceful, just as they
were November 2-6, until the government forcibly broke them
up on November 7th. He asked how opposition members could
remain calm when police are not punished for publicly and
openly using excessive force. Still, Kukava said that
Gachechiladze and the opposition should not be associated
with Patarkatsishvili and any attempts to forcibly change the
government through use of force.

--------------
ZOURABISHVILI - THE SYSTEM IS ROTTEN
--------------


9. (C) In a December 27 meeting with the Ambassador,
Georgia's Way Salome Zourabishvili and the Republicans' Tina
Khidasheli said that conditions no longer exist to permit a
free and fair election campaign in Georgia. According to
them both, there was no freedom of media, no campaign funds

TBILISI 00003177 003 OF 004


available, and no possibility to have an election without
intimidation. If before they had individual complaints about
intimidation, now the entire system is flawed. Both
political representatives were critical of the lack of media
coverage of opposition candidates, saying that even when
Imedi was on the air, the reporting was not as it was
previous to its forced closure on November 7. Most of
Zourabishvili's media complaints were linked to the
television channels' disinterest in interviewing opposition
candidates on substantive issues. She complained that the
issues that opposition candidates are called to comment on
are not about their platforms, but about statements made by
other newsworthy figures. Zourabishvili said that the
majority of the United National Movement's funding was coming
from the country's budget and from pressure put on
businessmen to donate. Despite Patarkatsishvili's comments
otherwise, she said that the opposition has not received any
funding from the wealthy businessman.


10. (C) Zourabishvili said that the recent release of tapes
with Patarkatsishvili offering money to Georgian police
official Kodua to enlist his support to foment unrest during
the elections, was a result of collusion between
Patarkatsishvili and Saakashvili to draw attention away from
the opposition candidates and to the United National Movement
(UNM),thereby validating UNM's claims that coup attempts are
real. Both Zourabishvili and Khidasheli raised concerns
about CEC actions to allegedly open special PECs in Kodori
for military voters and for police officers in Tbilisi. They
allege that there are no military serving in Kodori, only
Ministry of Internal Affairs (MOIA) troops. With regards to
special PECS for police on election day, they allege that
police would vote for the UNM in the opposition stronghold
precincts of Vake, Mtatsminda and Mtskheta, and vote again in
their assigned precincts where they reside, thereby voting
twice. Still, Zourabishvili said that the opposition is
focusing not on January, but on winning the election on
January 5. She discounted that other opposition members are
planning otherwise.

-------------- --------------
USUPASHVILI AND GAMKRELIDZE STRIKING A MORE MODERATE TONE
-------------- --------------


11. (C) In a December 21 meeting with Poloff, Chair of the
Republican Party Dato Usupashvili (please protect) assessed
privately that the best outcome for the January 5
presidential elections would be for former president
Saakashvili to be elected and become a "better Saakashvili"
as a result of the events of the fall. He stressed that he
could not say this publicly but that the opposition's focus
had never been to unseat Saakashvili now but to obtain more
seats in Parliament to have an impact on the direction of the
Government. Although the meeting had occurred before the
December 24 and 25 release of video and audio tapes
purporting to show an alleged coup plot by the
Patarkatsisvili, Usupashvili expressed concern about
Patarkatsishvili's impact on the elections. He worried, for
example, how Patarkatsishvili's party is funding election
officials throughout the country while United Opposition
campaigners received nothing for their work.


12. (C) Separately, Usupashvili was disappointed that Acting
President Burjanadze had not taken the opportunity to be
neutral in the presidential race and had campaigned directly
for former president Saakashvili. He said that there is
widespread intimidation against opposition party activists,
and cited an example of a campaigner in Telavi who lost his
railroad job when his boss found out about his activities as
representative of a wider effort being conducted by police
and others nationwide. Poloff encouraged Usupashvili to
raise the issue with ODIHR and the Government Task Force. He
was frustrated that neither Acting President Burjanadze nor
Minister of Internal Affairs Merabishvili had agreed to the
opposition request to make a clear, public statement that any
attempt at coercion or intimidation of voters would be
investigated and prosecuted. Although he said the Government
could not control every individual, he believed that such a
public statement would make clear the Government's position
and cut down on such incidents. He denied reports that the
opposition was refusing to meet with the Government's Task
Force but said that the opposition had not been informed of
the last meeting.


13. (C) In a December 27 meeting with Poloff, political
advisor for Davit Gamkrelidze's New Rights Party Shalva
Pichkhadze assessed bluntly that Saakashvili would win by a
landslide. He believed the UNC, with its sloppy attempt to
bring out supporters to overthrow the Government in November,
had handed Saakashvili a second term in office. Pichkhadze

TBILISI 00003177 004 OF 004


said bluntly that Georgia needs no more revolutions but that
the other pro-Western parties were not a strong enough
alternative to Saakashvili. They needed help to become
stronger. He lamented that everyone from the opposition
funds their campaigns from their personal resources. When
asked about UNM, he told a story of a relative outside
Tbilisi who relayed receiving pressure from an UNM official
to contribute 100,000 GEL to UNM or "receive the financial
police tomorrow." Pichkhadze said his relative paid the
money and still will vote for Saakashvili. He said that
Georgians simply did not understand democracy - what it means
to be free - and will choose a bad known for a potentially
worse unknown. Still, he believed that the focus of the
opposition should be on gaining enough seats in Parliament to
better balance political power in Georgia.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


14. (C) For many in the opposition, all rationality has gone
and the clear goal is revolution. As one observer noted,
Georgia has only known revolution, and when the parties do
not receive the results they want, it is to revolution that
they turn. Some of the opposition concerns ring true,
especially when they are reported across the country. We are
particularly concerned with what appear to be credible
reports of problems in the pre-election period which are
giving an advantage to Saakashvili. We have and will
continue to raise them with the Government. Still,
Saakashvili was and remains a popular figure, especially in
the regions. And Georgia needs to get beyond moving from
revolution to revolution to become a stronger and more
resilient democracy where election results are deemed fair
and accepted by all parties. We will continue to support
free and fair elections and press this message to all parties
involved.



TEFFT