Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TBILISI3174
2007-12-28 11:40:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

ALEX RONDELI: THE UNM SHIP MIGHT STILL FLOAT

Tags:  PGOV GG 
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VZCZCXRO1078
OO RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSI #3174/01 3621140
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 281140Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8529
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 003174 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR DAS BRYZA, EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV GG
SUBJECT: ALEX RONDELI: THE UNM SHIP MIGHT STILL FLOAT

REF: TBILISI 2454

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS 1.4 (b) & (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 003174

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR DAS BRYZA, EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV GG
SUBJECT: ALEX RONDELI: THE UNM SHIP MIGHT STILL FLOAT

REF: TBILISI 2454

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Alex Rondeli, Director of the Georgian Foundation for
Security and International Studies (GFSIS) and widely
respected political analyst, shared his views on recent
political developments and media professionalism with the DCM
on December 26. Rondeli wasn,t surprised by reports of
Patarkatsishvili,s coup plot and expressed admiration for
the effectiveness the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MOIA)
sting operation that uncovered the threat. He believes
Patarkatsishivili felt safe in meeting MOIA official Kodua in
London based on Marina Gabunia,s recommendation after
meeting Kodua and Gelbakhiani,s recommendation after his two
meetings. According to Rondeli, Patarkatsishvili asked
Gabunia, a former judge who was dismissed for corruption, to
make the first pitch to Kodua because she had a past romantic
relationship with him.


2. (C) When asked what he thought Patarkatsishvili might do
as a Plan B if the coup plans are foiled, he responded that
Plan A had been the November demonstrations and the coup plot
is Plan B. Rondeli believes Patarkatsishvili had hoped to
use the early November demonstrations to topple Saakashvili
but the strong government response on November 7 turned the
tide. Rondeli,s greatest worry now is an assassination
attempt on an opposition candidate that would be blamed on
Saakashvili,s supporters. Rondeli recalled discussions he
had in Berlin in October when he alerted the German Foreign
Ministry to the risk that anti-Saakashvili forces could
assassinate Okruashvili to weaken the Georgian government,
and thinks this concern led the Germans to finally arrest
Okruashvili to keep him from harm.


3. (C) Rondeli expressed his view that the Georgian people
accept as credible the evidence of Patarkatsishvili,s coup
plot and are shocked and angered by it. He thinks the
majority of Georgians will assume calls for demonstrations on
January 6 will be part of Patarkatsishvili,s plot and they
now want to hear from the candidates whether they support the
election or support demonstrations. Rondeli believes United
Opposition candidate Gachechiladze, whom he has known since a

child, is a dirty politician and knew about
Patarkatsishvili,s plans. He also believes that the
opposition candidates have been slow to denounce
Patarkatsishvili because all of them (with the probable
exception of Usupashvili and the Republicans) have received
financing from Patarkatsishvili. Rondeli sees the
fingerprints of the Russian FSB on Patarkatsishvili,s plot
and argues the Kremlin would not let such an opportunity to
topple Saakashvili pass untried.


4. (C) Rondeli said the ad hoc media watchdog group that
Adam Michnik formed in early December is effective as a moral
force that journalists are paying attention to. The group
is composed of seven professionals hand picked by Michnik
from media, NGOs and think-tanks. The group convenes at the
public TV station on Friday evenings for one hour of air time
set aside for discussion and rendering of opinions about news
coverage by the various TV stations. Rondeli said he
believes the Michnik group is helping to set fair journalism
standards and that the TV stations are listening and striving
to avoid criticisms. According to Rondeli the Michnik group
has found no serious problems with professional standards
since beginning its work two weeks ago. The group plans to
meet twice more and at this point has no intention of
continuing beyond the January 5 election.


5. (C) Rondeli explained that there is no conflict with the
Media Council formed by the government because the Council
has a more technical role, to track TV programming to ensure
that regulatory standards are met, such as balanced coverage
of the presidential candidates during the election. Rondeli
believes the combination of the Michnik group and the Media
Council has achieved the goal of improved journalistic
professionalism during the election period and Georgia will
have to consider how best to maintain these standards after
January 5 and during future elections.


6. (C) Comment: Rondeli was depressed and very critical of
the government following the November 7 crack down on
demonstrations. He even advised Lado Gurgenidze, whom he
says was the most gifted of his former students, against
accepting Saakashvili,s offer to be Prime Minister and
thereby joining a sinking ship. However, over the past few
weeks he has come to a grudging acceptance of the
government,s actions as necessary real politik and now
believes the United National Movement,s ship might still
float after the election. He thinks demonstrations on
January 6 are unavoidable. He believes the international

TBILISI 00003174 002 OF 002


community has an extremely important role to play because the
strength and danger of the demonstrations will depend on how
clear the international community,s verdict on the elections
will be. He concedes that we are in a very dangerous and
confusing period for Georgia and he does not have a clear
idea how this will play out. End Comment.


TEFFT