GEORGIAN ELECTIONS: COMPETITION FOR THE FIRST TIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 003151

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIAN ELECTIONS: COMPETITION FOR THE FIRST TIME


Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: As the Georgian Presidential election
campaign gears up for its final two weeks, a number of themes
have emerged on the campaign trail. The most glaring is the
brutal blood sport aspect of the Georgian campaign, with each
political party battling to the death for dominance. The
ruling United National Movement (UNM) and the opposition's
United National Opposition (UNC) are both guilty of turning
every issue into a gruesome winner-take-all contest. As a
result, the campaign has at times become over the fairness of
the election itself instead of over the issue of the day,
with every party vying for the approval of Western Embassies
and international observers. That said, local experts agree
that this is the most competitive election in Georgian
history, with the opposition mounting the most credible
campaign ever against a strong, ruling party candidate in
former President Saakashvili. It is also the first election
in almost a decade where the voters list (as a result in part
of U.S. assistance) has not been the number one problem.
Experts also agree that more than ever, candidates are
traveling to the regions to actually attempt to garner votes.
Our message to all is to focus on the issues and to respect
the results, provided that international observers consider
them representative of the will of the people. End summary.

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CAMPAIGNING AS BLOOD SPORT
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2. (C) Politics in Georgia is not for the faint of heart and
the current campaign for the Presidential election on January
5, 2008 shows that neither is campaigning. The most glaring
theme of the campaign is the brutal blood sport aspect of the
race, with each political party battling to the death for
dominance. Nowhere is this more evident than in the struggle
with oligarch Badri Patarkatsisvili who Saakashvili and his
team believe will do anything to bring them down. But this
attitude seems all-pervasive. When Republican Party leader
Dato Usupashvili failed to receive the nomination to be the
candidate for the United Opposition Council (UOC),many asked
him what he was going to do now that he was "washed up" in
politics. He replied that he would soldier on as Chair of
the Republican Party. This vignette demonstrates how people
think of politicians in Georgia - one is either dominant or
out of the race. There is simply no in-between. As a
result, when we speak to both opposition and ruling party
officials, they play up their chances and offer wildly
optimistic assessments of how their candidates will fare in
the elections. There is no polling or private assessment
that we think is reliable. The reality is that it is hard to
tell how much support former President Saakashvili lost as a
result of the November crack-down on demonstrators. He has
clearly lost some support in Tbilisi, but we believe that his
support in the regions remains substantial.

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LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR JANUARY 6?
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3. (C) Perhaps acknowledging its almost certain defeat in the
Presidential elections, the opposition's tactic has been to
focus largely on the conduct of the campaign rather than on
issues themselves. As a result, most of the debate has been
over opposition allegations that the ruling party has abused
administrative resources, pressured individuals to vote for
Saakashvili, and intimidated the media to report in an
unbalanced way. Although some of these arguments appear to
have merit and the ruling party is using every political
technique in the book to win over voters, the facts about
many of these issues are not clear cut. This has led to
endless arguments over, for example, the definition of the
use of administrative resources -- with both the ruling party
and the opposition claiming to be in the right. The presence
of the OSCE's Office of Democratic Institutions and Human
Rights as well as of Western Embassies has helped to keep
blatant violations of the law in check but the parties have
been campaigning Western Embassies and institutions almost as
much as the Georgian electorate. At times, it has seemed
that the opposition is preparing more for a loss and
subsequent demonstrations on January 6, than for a win on
January 5.

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WHAT GETS LOST? OFTEN THE ISSUES
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4. (C) There are real issues of concern for the average
Georgian, most notably the failure of the Saakashvili
Government's reforms to have much of an impact on the
standard of living of most Georgians. If anything, life for

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the average Georgian has become harder under Saakashvili as a
result of continuing Russian bans on Georgian agriculture,
wine and water as well as other structural reforms that
resulted in layoffs, especially of government employees.
This has put a damper on the overwhelmingly strong public
support for Saakashvili in the heady days after the Rose
Revolution in 2003. Many of his detractors are among the
Tbilisi intelligentsia, who saw their privileged positions
and guaranteed salaries and support systems disappear as
Georgia enacted reforms to the Georgian education, health and
other sectors. Interestingly, it is the areas of Tbilisi
where these residents live - the fashionable Vake district -
where Saakashvili's support is its lowest. The same is true
in Adjara. Many of Aslan Abashidze's cronies, who once
benefited from his corrupt rule, have lost their livelihoods.
The result has been a low amount of support for the UNM in
this region. On the other hand, in regions such as Samegrelo
and Kakheti, support for Saakashvili remains strong, based on
improvements in electricity supply, road infrastructure and
the like. Job losses have not been as marked in such
regions, where the economy is largely agricultural. The
National Movement's only worry in Zugdidi, for example, where
it has clearly out-organized and out-campaigned the
opposition, is that Saakashvili's victory will be so crushing
that it raises instant complaints of fraud.


5. (C) The Government under Saakashvili undertook its painful
but critical reforms without perhaps enough emphasis on the
social impact of those reforms on the average Georgian. This
is what the focus of the opposition, and the election debate,
should rightly be. For example, it is widely believed that
the confidence (some would say arrogance) of the young and
talented professionals around Saakashvili contributed to a
lack of transparency and dialogue with the public over the
pace and content of reforms that have impacted so many. It
is this blind spot that contributed to the larger than
expected crowds that turned out on the street on November 7.
Rather than listening and altering course earlier, the
Government was forced to concede on every demand, but too
late to avoid the massive protest and subsequent crackdown.
The opposition, although now at least nominally united, has
still not found its feet in terms of articulating and
emphasizing those issues which matter most to the public. It
is no secret that the UNM campaign is better financed and
better organized than any of its competitors.

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SOME UP SIDES: MOST COMPETITIVE RACE EVER
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6. (C) Despite these down sides, experts see this election as
the most competitive in Georgian history. With most of the
opposition parties united behind a single (if uninspiring)
candidate, the ruling party - and Saakashvili - for the first
time will get a run for their money. Despite a lot of focus
on the modalities of the campaign, the candidates have been
campaigning Western-style, with rallies throughout Georgia.
In addition, for the first time since 1999, the inaccuracy of
the voters' list is not the number one problem going into the
elections. As a result of improvements made by the
Government and funded by USAID, there is more confidence in
the list. Also positively, experts believe that this
campaign more than any other looks like a real competition
with a stress on programs rather than personalities and that
more promises are being made, even if many of them may be
unrealistic. Finally, as a result of this move toward more
populist, Western style campaigning, experts believe that
citizens are more likely to go to the polling station and
participate in politics, with a belief that their vote really
does matter in today's Georgia.

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ON BALANCE, ENVIRONMENT IMPROVED
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7. (C) On balance, we view the election environment as
improved as a result of Georgia's commitment to achieving
Euro-Atlantic standards of democracy required by NATO and the
EU, as well as our work on the diplomatic and assistance
sides. The days of massive ballot stuffing - which was the
spark that lead to the Rose Revolution - appear to be behind
Georgia. Candidates now feel the need to travel the country
to lay out platforms and to solicit votes. They are making
Western style promises (albeit sometimes exaggerated) and
starting to focus on social programs. There is a real, if
unresolved, debate on what is fair in terms of using an
incumbent's natural advantage in the electoral campaign.
Although Georgian culture colors the campaign with emotive
language and at times sanguine predictions, it is clear that
the campaign is moving slowly from a Soviet style one man
show to a more populist, issue-centered contest in which the

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voter and his or her concerns come more to the fore.
TEFFT