TBILISI ELECTION UPDATE 12/19/2007

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 003137

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DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: TBILISI ELECTION UPDATE 12/19/2007

REF: A. TBILISI 3112

B. TBILISI 3118

C. TBILISI 2999

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Ambassador and Gachechiladze Discuss Campaign
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1. (C) In a meeting December 18, United National Council of
opposition (UNC) presidential candidate Levan Gachechiladze
told Ambassador he was certain the elections would go to a
second round, and he expected Saakashvili to gain at most 15
-20% in the first round. Gachechiladze said during UNC
door-to-door campaigning, "85% of the doors are opening,"
demonstrating grassroots support for the opposition.
Gachechiladze said the UNC is still "organizing the house"
and gathering campaign volunteers. Gachechiladze's said his
campaign is addressing the fair distribution of land in the
regions, opening of new markets for a strengthened
agricultural sector and an improved environment for small
businesses. Gachechiladze clarified that if elected, he
would resign the presidency within 90-200 days of his
election. After the election, Gachechiladze would present
the new UNC government to the parliament for approval. If
the current majority United National Movement (UNM)
parliament refused to accept his government, he would
dissolve the parliament and hold elections 45 days later,
extending the time he would serve as president.


2. (C) Gachechiladze said he felt voters were afraid there
would be retaliation by the government against opposition
supporters and that voter lists were inaccurate, especially
in relation to Georgians living abroad. Gachechiladze also
expressed concern that the UNM would conduct an exit poll,
but said if he could be assured the UNM wouldn't do a poll,
he would not let the UNC do an exit poll and he could "almost
guarantee" presidential candidate Badri Patarkatsishvili
would not do one either. Ambassador told Gachechiladze the
United States and other international organizations were not
conducting an exit poll for the presidential elections, but
would consider funding an exit poll for the parliamentary
elections.


3. (C) While a UNM-sponsored poll by BCG Research (ref B)
showed Saakashvili with a major lead, Gachechiladze claimed
some internet-based polls showed he had the lead, but that
these results would never be reported on national TV.
Gachechiladze said he "did not have his own television
station," unlike Saakashvili who has three, and Imedi, which
"belongs to Patarkatsishvili." According to Gachechiladze,
Patarkatsishvili's participation in the election hurt the
opposition, as he could take anywhere from 7 - 10% of the
vote that would otherwise go to the UNC.


4. (C) Gachechiladze told the Ambassador he would accept the
election results if ODIHR and the United States report the
elections as free and fair. At a December 18 press
conference following a PACE meeting in Paris, UNC member and
Republican Party MP Levan Berdzenishvili echoed this
sentiment, saying the opposition trusts international
election watchdog groups and will accept the results of the
January elections if they are endorsed by observer
organizations. Berdzenishvili said "we are preparing not for
January 6, but for January 5. If elections are fair, and
confirmed by the Georgian people and the international
organizations, we will recognize the results."

Campaigning Continues
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5. (SBU) Mikheil Saakashvili campaigned in Batumi and
Samagrelo December 18 where he was met by a large crowd of
supporters. In Batumi, Saakashvili predicted that by the
expiration of his second term in 2013, Batumi would be the
most beautiful and successful city in the Black Sea region.
Irina Sarishvili-Chanturia, Imedi party, met with the
ambassador-designate of France and media, while New Rightists
candidate David Gamkrelidze campaigned in Shida Kartli.
Gachechiladze, who campaigned in Samtske-Javakheti and
Khasuri on December 17, told the Ambassador more than 1700
people attended his rally, 3-4 times more than expected, and
more than Saakashvili drew in his 2003 campaign.

Patarkatsishvili Announces Campaign Program
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6. (SBU) On December 18 Badri Patarkatsishvili announced his
campaign platform on Imedi radio, adding that the official
release would happen in a few days. Patarkatsishvili
outlined plans to pay for the first 100 kilowatts of

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electricity consumed by each Georgian family over the next 18
months, as well as gas taxes, water fees, and a stipend of
GEL 600 per year to each unemployed Georgian. During this
time, Patarkatsishvili said he would also launch an
employment program. During the following 24 months,
Patarkatsishvili said he would eliminate the income tax and
obligatory military service, provide large scale amnesty to
prisoners, and free the business environment to allow
businesses to increase their number of employees by 20%
annually. In the final phase of the plan, Patarkatsishvili
said Georgia would be like other European nations, with
export incentives and a strong tourism and agriculture
sector. During the radio interview, Patarkatsishvili did not
explain how he would accomplish these programs, but when the
interview was rebroadcast on TV, many Georgians rushed to
Patarkatsishvili's campaign offices seeking immediate
handouts. Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee for Legal
Issues Levan Bezhashvili called Patarkatsishvili's campaign a
"bribe for voters" and said the CEC should investigate his
platform, but NSC Chairman Alexander Lomaia downplayed the
campaign promises, saying "people understand pre-election ads
very well and whether or not to believe them." Later on
December 18 in an interview on Mze TV, Labor Party Leader
Shalva Natelashvili accused Patarkatsishvili of stealing his
campaign ideas.

Accusations of Election Fraud Continue
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7. (SBU) The Georgian Young Lawyers' Association (GYLA) filed
a claim in Tbilisi City Court objecting to Tbilisi Mayor Gigi
Ugulava and Minister for Refugees and Accommodations Kova
Subeliani taking "orders" from candidate Saakashvili during a
meeting between Saakashvili and Abkhaz Internally Displaced
Persons on November 28 (Ref C). Koba Dzidziguri,
Conservative Party leader Kakha Kukava's brother and head of
the UNC in Samtredia, Imereti, accused local authorities of
forging the voter list, saying the constituency in Samtredia
was 37,000 but the CEC list contained 46,000 eligible voters.
In a December 18 press conference, Minister of Justice Eka
Tkeshelashvili pledged that the January 5 vote would not be
rigged and added any NGO, political party, or citizen has
until December 22 to provide information to the civil
registry about inaccuracies on the voter list and the CEC
will correct the mistake.

PM Increases Budget for Social Initiatives
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8. (U) PM Lado Gurgenidze said December 17 an additional GEL
400 million would be spent on the government's new social
initiatives aimed at reducing poverty and revised draft 2008
budget that will be presented to the Parliament will be more
socially oriented. Gurgenidze also said the November 7
unrest cost the Georgian economy at least USD 500 million.

Monitoring of Television Continues
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9. (U) The Georgian National Communications Commission (GNCC)
announced December 17 that Mze TV, Rustavi 2 TV, and Imedi TV
had submitted their ownership papers. Documents showed Imedi
is wholly owned by I-Media, which gave 100% control to News
Corp Europe. Georgian paper Rezonansi reported December 18
that the authorities were "vigorous in finding out the owners
of Imedi TV," but did not pay close attention to the
ownership of Mze or Rustavi 2 (which are both owned by
Georgian Industrial Group (45%) and GeoMedia Group (55%)).


10. (U) On December 18 the CEC released results of monitoring
from December 12 -15 of four national stations - Rustavi 2,
Mze, Imedi, and Georgian Public Broadcasting - and reported
the most frequently mentioned presidential candidate was
Natelashvili. Saakashvili, the only candidate running paid
ads, had five hours and 40 minutes of advertisements. The
remaining candidates are relying on legally allotted free
airtime. Natelashvili had about 2 hours of coverage on news
programs during the period monitored, followed by Saakashvili
at one hour and 55 minutes, Gachechiladze at 50 minutes, Gia
Maisashvili with 48 minutes and David Gamkrelidze with 45
minutes of coverage. The reports said most candidates
received objective coverage, but Saakashvili was the
candidate mentioned most frequently in a negative context.

CEC Will Open Polling Stations in Iraq and Kosovo
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11. (U) Following a decision by the Tbilisi City Court, the
CEC will open polling stations in Iraq and Kosovo to allow
approximately 2100 Georgian soldiers serving there to vote.

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TEFFT