TBILISI ELECTION UPDATE 12/17/07

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 003112

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: TBILISI ELECTION UPDATE 12/17/07

REF: TBILISI 3101

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4(b&d).

Lomaia and Ambassador Discuss Exit Polls and ODIHR
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1. (C) In a meeting December 14, the Ambassador told NSC
Chairman Alexander Lomaia that we had done a comprehensive
feasibility evaluation and found that we could not sponsor
and mount a proper exit poll (factoring in an adequate amount
of time for voter education) in the short time before the
January 5 election. Lomaia, who had previously requested
U.S. assistance for an exit poll, said he understood the
decision, but asked how the Georgian government should deal
with the possibility that Badri Patarkatsishvili would fund
his own exit poll. Lomaia said that Patarkatsishvili could
certainly "buy the numbers" he wanted, to show a
lower-than-officially-announced result for Saakashvili in
order to justify post-election protests. (Note: Ruling
National Movement spokesman David Bakradze had exactly the
same reaction when he and the Ambassador discussed exit polls
later the same day, noting that a Badri-funded poll would get
attention, and the National Movement would need something to
counter it.)


2. (C) The Ambassador stressed that we should place our
confidence in the OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission to
assess the election fairly and definitively, as well as in a
parallel vote tabulation (PVT). Lomaia agreed that these
were very important. He said the Georgian government had
recently created the interagency task force on the elections
(reftel) precisely to facilitate communication with ODIHR, as
well as NGOs and the diplomatic community. He stressed,
however, that the government wanted ODIHR to do more than
write an evaluation of the election after-the-fact; it should
also provide the government with a "roadmap to a free and
fair election," including benchmarks and proactive advice on
how to fix problems early on. The Ambassador noted that
ODIHR would issue two interim reports that would lay out its
observations as the campaign progressed. Lomaia also
stressed that ODIHR should judge the Georgian election by the
same criteria it has used elsewhere, for example in Armenia
and Russia.


3. (C) Lomaia said the ruling party would take no position on
the plebiscite question about whether to hold parliamentary
elections in April or in the fall. He said the question
would be worded so that a "yes" answer meant April elections,
something the opposition (which supports early elections) had
wanted. Lomaia said this concession was intended to be a
"signal" to responsible elements in the opposition that there
was a political future even if they lose the presidential
race. Asked about post-election protests, Lomaia said the
government hoped any protests would be peaceful, but would be
ready to react if demonstrators crossed lines such as
intruding into Parliament or using Imedi TV for inflammatory
statements.

Prosecutor General Meets Ambassador
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4. (SBU) The Prosecutor General Zurab Adeishvili told
Ambassador in a meeting on 17 December that the government
does not plan on bringing cases against candidates after the
election, with the possible exception of Badri
Patarkatsishvili. Adeishvili also noted that there are
ongoing criminal cases against law enforcement officials who
used excessive force during the protest on November 7.

Bakradze Briefs Diplomatic Corps
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5. (SBU) National Movement spokesman David Bakradze (on leave
from his position as State Minister of Conflict Resolution)
gave a wide-ranging briefing to diplomats December 14. He
explained the government's reasoning for calling a plebiscite
on NATO accession -- to "institutionalize the will of the
people" and thereby make the NATO direction irreversible --
and its neutral stance on the plebiscite on the timing of
parliamentary elections. Bakradze said the government had
initially opposed spring elections because they could be a
distraction during a potential crisis period following
international recognition of Kosovo, but now that
presidential elections had been moved up to January and the
winner would have a strong mandate, this concern about
parliamentary elections no longer applied.


6. (SBU) Bakradze distributed a large packet of
election-related materials, including reports from MOIA
investigations into a number of alleged elections-related
abuses. Noting that the opposition had complained that
voters' lists were too large, Bakradze agreed that this was

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true, but he said the extra names were largely those of
Georgians working abroad (usually without documentation) and
these individuals could not be precisely identified or
removed from the rolls without violating international
standards guaranteeing their right to vote. Bakradze
expressed concern that some in the opposition were already
declaring that elections could not be free and fair, and were
attacking the Central Election Commission and international
experts. He noted that opposition MP Levan Berdzenishvili
had criticized Matyas Eorsi, head of a Council of Europe
delegation that recently visited, while stressing that Eorsi
"is a Hungarian Jew."


7. (SBU) Asked about reports that officials were collecting
identity cards, Bakradze said he knew of no scenario in which
an individual could use a photocopy of someone else's
identity card to cast a fraudulent ballot, and he asked for
the details of any reported case of police asking for
identity cards. In response to another question, Bakradze
said he thought it quite possible that Saakashvili would
agree to appear on an Imedi talk show if he was invited.
Asked by the Ambassador if the National Movement had warned
its officials in the regions not to intimidate voters,
Bakradze replied with an emphatic yes. He said Deputy
Speaker of Parliament Machavariani was devoting all his time
to telling local officials and activists that the "best
Christmas present" they could give the opposition would be to
make them into victims. Bakradze added that Saakashvili
understood the advantages of victimhood perfectly from his
time in opposition five years ago. Bakradze admitted that,
"given the current level of political culture," there could
be a "temptation" to commit abuses, but the National Movement
was making a point to its people that such actions were
damaging to the party and prohibited.

Ruling in Favor of Military Voters
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8. (U) On December 17, the Tbilisi City Court reviewed the
case brought by the United National Movement Party regarding
the CEC's decision not to permit military serving outside of
Georgia to vote (reftel). The Tbilisi City court ruled in
favor of the National Movement and abolished the CEC's
previous decision.

TEFFT