Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TBILISI3037
2007-12-06 13:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION PARTIES QUICK TO PRE-JUDGE ELECTIONS

Tags:  PGOV PHUM GG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5394
RR RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSI #3037/01 3401355
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 061355Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8380
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 003037 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CARC, EUR/FO AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM GG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PARTIES QUICK TO PRE-JUDGE ELECTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, reason 1.4(b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 003037

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CARC, EUR/FO AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM GG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PARTIES QUICK TO PRE-JUDGE ELECTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, reason 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The government is concerned that the
opposition will not accept any outcome of the January 5
elections that returns former President Mikheil Saakashvili
to office, and that the opposition will take to the streets
again on January 6. The ruling National Movement's polls
suggQt Saakashvili may win in the first round of the
election. However, opposition candidates insist Saakashvili
has no chance to win at all, and any win will have to be the
result of unfair tactics and intimidation of voters. They
allege intimidation and other tactics on the part of the
National Movement that they believe will make a fair election
impossible. Difficulties in arranging independent interim
polling and exit polling may make it even harder for the
parties to accept an outcome that differs from their
previously conceived expectations. The government is
welcoming hundreds of election monitors as its best chance to
demonstrate the election is actually free and fair. We are
reminding both sides of the importance of abiding by the
outcome of elections that are judged free and fair by ODIHR
and other election monitors. End Summary.


2. (C) Acting President Burjanadze has expressed publicly
and also privately to the Ambassador her concern that the
opposition is already laying the groundwork to contest the
legitimacy of any election in which Saakashvili is the
winner. Both Burjanadze and Saakashvili have pledged that
the January 5 presidential election will be free and fair,
and that all candidates will have an equal chance to
campaign. In separate meetings with the Ambassador on
December 4 both Burjanadze and National Movement MP Giga
Bokeria complained that the opposition is trying to create a
"climate of fraud" for the local and international community,
by repeating the idea over and over and emphasizing every
report of intimidation or pressure.


3. (C) A recent poll conducted by BCG, a company run by
Central Election Commission Chairman Levan Tarkhnishvili's
wife, Ani Tarkhnishvili, interviewed 10,000 people and found
71 percent would vote in the elections and 54 percent would

vote for Saakashvili. Bokeria insists the poll is accurate,
in spite of suspicions raised by the opposition about the
relationship between its owner, the CEC and the National
Movement. They say that opposition candidates do not have
serious support or organizations outside Tbilisi, except in
Adjara. Saakashvili is weakest in Adjara and Tbilisi, but he
enjoys substantial support in Imereti and Samegrelo,
according to the National Movement. Overall, says Bokeria,
Saakashvili has enough support to achieve a first round
victory on January 5.


4. (C) In early televised interviews, united opposition
presidential candidate Levan Gachechiladze has been
argumentative with reporters and raised perceptions that he
is not presidential, possibly costing him votes in an
election where the key issue is the candidates' perceived
ability to rule this very fractious country. At the same
time, he is saying that Saakashvili has no chance of winning.
There have been some unscientific polls, such as one
published by the newspaper Kviris Palitra based on its
readership's vote, that show Gachechiladze in a dead heat
with Saakashvili. Otherwise Gachechiladze and the other
candidates have not revealed any professional polling results
that would support claims that they are close to defeating
Saakashvili. Other candidates are no less shy about
predicting the election outcome. Davit Gamkrelidze of the
New Rightists party said in an interview on December 4 that
"Saakashvili is already defeated". Kakha Kukava of the
Conservative Party is quoted as saying that if Gachechiladze
does not win, the opposition will prove the illegitimacy of
President Saakashvili to the whole world. Presidential
candidate Gia Maisashvili has openly called for civil
disobedience after January 5 if Saakashvili wins, as have
members of the Equality Institute, an NGO associated with the
united opposition.


5. (C) For their paQ, opposition politicians are sure the
government is stacking the deck against them and they
complain of an atmosphere of intimidation. There have been
allegations of attacks on opposition activists and
headquarters in Tskaltubo, Batumi and elsewhere. The
National Movement has been accused of using government
pressure to extort campaign contributions and expressions of
support, and of collecting ID cards to create votes. Acting
President Burjanadze and National Movement Secretary General,
David Kirkitadze, have attributed these reports to actions by
overzealous party operatives and pledged to curb such
behavior. The opposition objects to Saakashvili's use of
cars, airplanes and other state "administrative resources" in
the course of his campaigning, to which they naturally do not

TBILISI 00003037 002 OF 002


have equal access. Saakashvili's National Movement spokesman
claims they are paying for those state resources. The
government is also taking steps that are only in its power to
gain voters' favor, such as a temporary employment program
that is touted to provide up to 100,000 jobs.


6. (C) Imedi remains closed at this time, but will soon
re-open. Equal time rules are about to go into effect, when
the qualified candidates are confirmed by the CEC on December

6. According to the Embassy's news watchers, opposition
candidates are already well represented on television news
programs. Pro-Saakashvili advertisements are beginning to be
seen, and this is an area where the incumbent's well-heeled
campaign may have a significant advantage. In Tbilisi, one
station that clearly supports the opposition, Kavkasia, is
operating, and when Imedi comes back on the air, its coverage
will inevitably extend an anti-Saakashvili message across
Georgia. Both the Georgian Media Council and independent
observation by Adam Michnik (the latter specifically invited
because of the Imedi situation) are in place to help ensure
that media excesses are exposed in a timely manner.


7. (C) The government has backed up its promise that
elections will be free and fair by inviting the international
community to send as many election monitors as it can muster
to observe the polls on January 5 and the election campaign
beforehand. A large number of trained election monitors will
give some assurance of fairness and deter election-day
shenanigans. A parallel vote count is planned. However, it
is hard to say how accurate either side's current predictions
of the election outcome may be or what the impact of any
intimidation or other pre-election unfairness may be. We are
pointedly reminding all the parties that they must abide by
the outcome of elections that are found to be free and fair
by impartial election observers.
TEFFT