Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TBILISI2814
2007-11-14 14:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

DAS BRYZA'S NOVEMBER 12 MEETING WITH GEORGIAN PM

Tags:  PREL PGOV ENRG GG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5996
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSI #2814/01 3181447
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 141447Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8184
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 002814 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CARC, EUR/FO AND EEB/ISC/ESC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG GG
SUBJECT: DAS BRYZA'S NOVEMBER 12 MEETING WITH GEORGIAN PM
NOGHAIDELI

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, reason 1.4(b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 002814

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CARC, EUR/FO AND EEB/ISC/ESC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG GG
SUBJECT: DAS BRYZA'S NOVEMBER 12 MEETING WITH GEORGIAN PM
NOGHAIDELI

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, reason 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a November 12 meeting with Georgian Prime
Minister Zurab Noghaideli, EUR DAS Matt Bryza urged that the
government lift its state of emergency and return independent
television station Imedi back to the air. Noghaideli
admitted that the government's aggressive pursuit of economic
and social reform has created discontent, especially among
the rural poor and dismissed government employees. This
situation has given strength to the opposition that organized
the protest of November 2. He defended the government's
decision to confront demonstrators when they turned violent
on November 7. Ringleaders of the violence will still be
subject to prosecution, he said, but opposition leaders have
nothing to fear. Nevertheless, investigations of Labor Party
leader Shalva Natelashvili and Goga Khaindrava will continue,
and prosecutions may result if the evidence warrants. Now
that presidential elections have been called for November 5,
Noghaideli said, the government is committed that they be
free and fair, and will welcome election monitors both during
the campaign and on election day. He recommended Bryza
raise with President Saakashvili the proposal to facilitate
Imedi TV's return to the airwaves by establishing a European
monitor of media broadcasts. Noghaideli said that he expects
to complete an agreement with the Azerbaijan government on
gas supplies at a meeting in Tbilisi on November 22. He said
that about 80 percent of Georgia's gas supplies in 2008 will
come from Azerbaijan. End Summary.

--------------
REFORM GENERATES SOME DISCONTENT
--------------


2. (C) DAS Bryza expressed to Noghaideli the USG's concern
about the manner in which dispersal of protesters in Tbilisi
was handled on November 7, and reported continued arrests of
opposition supporters outside Tbilisi. He said that the
opposition leaders with whom he had met speak of feelings of
fear that could make a free and fair presidential election on
January 5 difficult. He added that he has told the

opposition that it must speak and act responsibly, and
participate in dialogue with the government. National
Movement parliamentarians with whom he had met during his
visit had admitted that the tough economic and social
decision required by the government's reform agenda have
caused discontent, and that such people are vulnerable to
exploitation by radicals and foreign influences.
Nevertheless, he said, it is important to get Imedi TV back
on the air as soon as possible, while at the same time he
recognized the need to ensure Imedi will not be used to
incite violence or extra-constitutional steps. It will not
be possible to achieve confidence in the January elections
among Georgia's supporters abroad unless Imedi is on the air,
he concluded.


3. (C) Noghaideli said that the government accepts that it
will never be as popular as it was when Saakashvili was first
elected in 2004. Reforms have been painful and government
employment has been reduced by 60 percent, leaving many
former employees bitter. He said that rural poverty is a
difficult problem to solve in a short time. There are many
villages that date to collective farm days under the Soviets,
where people do not own land and have no work, he said. He
rejected "artificial solutions" to the problem. The issue
can be only be solved by such persons moving to the cities
over time, and he rejected "artificial solutions" such as
forcibly relocating them. The government is providing some
direct benefits to such people, including health care, he
said. The people who have lost government jobs are more
wealthy and yet more vocal, he said. Many other people's
income is growing. But the employment problem is why the
government is developing a free economic zone in Poti,
redeveloping Batumi, and now turning its attention to
Kutaisi, Noghaideli said.

-------------- ---
A FIRM RESPONSE TO VIOLENT PROTESTS, RESPECT FOR
PEACEFUL DISSENT AND ELECTION CAMPAIGNING
-------------- ---


4. (C) Noghaideli stressed that no action was taken against
the protesters on and after November 2, so long as they were
peaceful, no matter how many of them there were.
(Noghaideli's estimate was 80,000 people on November 2.) He
defended the action to clear the street on November 7.
Violence occurred, he said, only when demonstrators returned
and began to attack the police and try to enter the
parliament. The police had to reestablish order, he said, as
would be required anywhere in the world. The government
knows it lost ground as a result, however, and is faced with

TBILISI 00002814 002 OF 003


a new reality. The President has called presidential
elections at the earliest possible date, which is January 5,
he said. Noghaideli added that the GOG knows the world is
watching and that its actions matter more than its words.


5. (C) Noghaideli said the government is committed to free
and fair elections in January. However, he believes that
opposition claims that their members fear retaliation,
especially outside Tbilisi, are overblown. To address that,
the government has invited the OSCE to send long-term
election monitors to Georgia to monitor the campaign as well
as the elections. The world should watch, he said, and it
will see that people have the chance to express their views
as in any normal democratic country.


6. (C) The Russians now know they have failed to replace
Saakashvili and can have no real influence in Georgian
politics, Noghaideli said. They will still try to influence
the course of politics negatively. However, by involving
themselves with the Russians, Shalva Natelashvili and Goga
Khaindrava have marginalized themselves. An investigation of
their behavior will be undertaken, but they will not be
arrested unless more evidence of crimes is uncovered, he
said. Badri Patarkatsishvili is "playing the Russians'
game," Noghaideli said. Badri was using Imedi as his tool,
calling for forceful overthrow of the government and
rebellion. He said that the Ambassador will soon receive a
package of evidence relating to Imedi from the General
Prosecutor. Bryza agreed that the calls for overthrow of the
government on the part of both Imedi and the opposition were
unacceptable. He said the calling of presidential elections
in January was a prudent decision. Nevertheless, he was
delivering a firm message from Secretary Rice to lift the
state of emergency and put Imedi back on the air to ensure
the elections are credible.


7. (C) Bryza said that the opposition had told him that the
police had chased demonstrators down on November 7 and that
dissidents have been sought out and jailed since. Noghaideli
said that some demonstrators who were bent on breaking
windows and smashing property were chased down and could not
be left to their own ends. He cited the action of
demonstrators earlier this year in Estonia. He said that
ringleaders of violence could indeed face prosecution and
spending 30 days in jail. He professed himself ready to
discuss the lifting of the state of emergency and reopening
of Imedi. He said he, the President, and the Minister of
Interior will take responsibility for police misbehavior, but
that individual police, who were on the street in the heat of
confrontation, should receive understanding. The police will
conduct an internal assessment after the situation returns to
normal, he said. The state of emergency will end "this week"
(the week of November 12). Then people will have full rights
to demonstrate, he said, but the government does not want a
return to the same situation as before.


8. (C) In that regard, Bryza urged Noghaideli to talk to
Rupert Murdoch about the incendiary content of Imedi
broadcasts, since he may not fully understand what Imedi was
up to. He said independent European monitors could be
appointed to judge whether broadcasts violate professional
and/or ethical standards of journalism, if Imedi is allowed
to reopen. Such monitors exist in several European
countries, he said. Noghaideli deferred to President
Saakashvili to make such a decision.


9. (C) Bryza asked Noghaideli what the economic impact of the
political crisis has been. Noghaideli said it is difficult
to calculate. He thinks there could be a slowing of growth
for a while, but the economy should get back to normal unless
the upcoming election is perceived to be unfair by the United
States and the Europeans.


10. (C) Bryza said that he supports Georgia in seeking
Azerbaijani natural gas as an alternate to Russian supplies.
The grand goal, he said, is to get Azeri production up to the
point that Georgia's needs can be met and enough is available
to fill the Nabucco and Turkey-Greece-Italy pipelines.
However, both Azerbaijan and BP are playing a hard game in
their negotiations over future gas development. The USG is
stressing to the Azeris that they need to help Georgia with
gas, and to BP that they need to compromise. He said he
hopes to see a deal finished soon.

--------------
80 PERCENT AZERI GAS
--------------


11. (C) Noghaideli said that Azeri Energy Minister Rovnaq
Aliyev is coming to Tbilisi on November 22 to complete

TBILISI 00002814 003 OF 003


negotiations. He expects that Georgia will get about 1.0-1.4
million cm per day at a cost of $140 per thousand cubic
meters. In the end, he thinks Georgia will use about 80
percent Azeri gas (from the South Caucasus Pipeline and
SOCAR). Only 20 percent or less will come from Russia.
Noghaideli was proud that Georgia is now a net exporter of
electricity, as he said, and is constructing high-voltage
lines to its neighbors. Because Georgia is solving its
internal energy problems, it is looking forward to
international projects, Noghaideli said. He expects
electricity consumption will begin to rise in 2008 as the
economy grows. He said the government is beginning to think
about what will happen in seven to ten years.


12. (U) DAS Bryza has cleared this telegram.
TEFFT