Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TBILISI2729
2007-11-05 12:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

GAP BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND PROTESTERS WIDENS AS

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM GG 
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VZCZCXRO1310
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSI #2729/01 3091246
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 051246Z NOV 07 ZDK DUE TO MANY SVC'S
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8076
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 002729 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM GG
SUBJECT: GAP BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND PROTESTERS WIDENS AS
DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE

REF: TBILISI 2719

TBILISI 00002729 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 002729

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM GG
SUBJECT: GAP BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND PROTESTERS WIDENS AS
DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE

REF: TBILISI 2719

TBILISI 00002729 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Street demonstrations against the Saakashvili
government continue in Tbilisi for the fourth day on November
5, following their start on November 2 (reftel).
Conservative estimates placed the crowd at up to 70,000
people on Rustaveli avenue at the peak on November 2.
Georgian oligarch Badri Patarkatsishvili attended the first
day of the protest and addressed the crowd, but then left
Georgia and has not made further statements. On November 2,
Speaker of Parliament Nino Burjanadze met with protest
leaders but no real progress was achieved. The opposition
leaders began calling for President Saakashvili's resignation
on November 3. Some opposition leaders met with Burjanadze's
staff and MP Giga Bokeria on November 3, but again without
results. On Sunday, November 4, Salome Zourabichvili, one of
the opposition leaders, met with the Ambassador to raise
concern about the growing strength of more radical elements
in the opposition and to convince the Ambassador to urge
dialogue and compromise on President Saakashvili. As the
protests continued over the weekend, many protesters from
outside Tbilisi left town. The crowd in front of the
Parliament grew smaller and more homogenous, being mostly men
between 40 and 60 years old. On November 4, President
Saakashvili released a taped interview in which he mentioned
Georgia's recent successes, acknowledged problems with
unemployment and inflation, but criticized the opposition as
being a manipulated by "black forces" involved in a "factory
of lies." He defended his choice of a Fall date for
elections by referring to potential Russian interference if
they are held at the same time as Russian elections in Spring

2008. From our soundings, his message appears to have failed
to resonate with the public. We sense rising disappointment
with both the President and the opposition. Both sides
appear to be unready to make concessions that will make them

appear weak. End Summary.

--------------
Mass Protests Friday Taper Off
on Saturday and Sunday
--------------


2. (U) As they approached Tbilisi, opposition caravans
reportedly encountered roadblocks and spikes strewn in their
paths. The anti-government television channel Imedi showed
them displaying the specially clumped nails that were sure to
damage tires. The Embassy has heard other stories about bus
drivers being deprived of their licenses by police.
Nevertheless, large numbers of protesters, especially from
Western Georgia, were successful in reaching Tbilisi by the
opening of the demonstration on Friday afternoon.


3. (SBU) As had been anticipated since September 28, the
demonstration called by the United Council of the Opposition,
which includes all the opposition parties except the New
Rightists and the Industrialists, began on November 2. The
crowd was conservatively estimated at between 50,000 to
70,000 demonstrators. The opposition claimed 100,000 people,
while the government officially admitted perhaps 35,000
protesters. The protests were all but entirely peaceful.
The police presence was less visible than during the
September 28 protest, when twelve buses of anti-riot police
were seen in the vicinity of the protests. Emboffs witnessed
one heated confrontation with police that occurred when
protesters tried to enter a post office next door to
Parliament and take down a banner showing the opposition as
puppets of Badri Patarkatsishvili. This situation quickly
resolved itself and the banner remained in place but was
generally ignored.


4. (SBU) Although he had originally intended to keep his
distance, oligarch Badri Patarkatsishvili attended the
protest and twice briefly addressed the crowd. His message
was simple, "I am with you." He was greeted with applause.
Fliers were handed out in advance, showing his picture and
repeating his message of the country's need for
representative government and unity. Patarkatsishvili left
the country on November 3 and has not been heard from as the
protests have continued.


5. (U) On the evening of November 2, after repeated calls
from the opposition leadership for the government to meet and
take their demands seriously, the opposition and Burjanadze's
staff agreed to a meeting. The leaders suggested the
demonstrators could go home while the meeting took place and
the crowd significantly diminished from that point. The
Speaker refused to offer a change in the date of the
elections as demanded by the opposition. Protesters remained

TBILISI 00002729 002.2 OF 003


on the streets for the rest of the night, some of them
drinking wine and showing high spirits. The following day it
was reported that two young supporters of the opposition were
beaten by masked men while they were bringing food to the
demonstrators. No other violence was reported.


6. (U) On November 3, disappointed by the government's lack
of response, the opposition added a call for Saakashvili to
resign to their list of formal demands. During the day,
about 3000 demonstrators were at the Parliament, becoming
somewhat more numerous in the evening. Imedi continuously
televised the proceedings and their cameras remained focused
on the podium and a tightly packed area in front of the dais,
maintaining the impression of massive crowds. The leaders'
rhetoric progressively became more strident. The People's
Party's corpulent leader, Koba Davitashvili, mentioned his
love for shashlik barbecue and said he and the protesters
would "eat the government" like his favorite barbecue. Levan
Berdzenishvili of the Republican Party compared Saakashvili
to Romania's Ceausescu and warned he would end up like
Ceausescu or Milosevic if he does not resign.


7. (C) The opposition again met with National Movement MPs on
November 3. Reportedly, Presidential confidant and member of
Parliament Giga Bokeria was visibly irritated with the
opposition's treatment of Burjanadze. He said that the
opposition demanded to speak with Saakashvili himself and
largely refused to negotiate with Burjanadze.

--------------
Moderates Fear Losing Ground to Radicals
--------------


8. (C) On Sunday, November 4, Salome Zourabichvili, leader of
the party "Georgia's Way" and a relatively moderate voice
among the opposition, called on the Ambassador. She insisted
that her followers do not want a revolution, they want
change, and she is well aware that the Russians are delighted
by the disarray in Tbilisi. She expressed concern that more
radical elements, such as Labor Party supporters of firebrand
Shalva Natelashvili, are gaining strength at her expense, and
Saakashvili is not providing material to strengthen the
moderates against them. She considers Saakashvili too
beholden to intransigent advisors like Bokeria, who portrays
the opposition to Saakashvili as unyielding on their side.
Zourabichvili said international unwillingness to back
opposition demands was also encouraging Saakashvili to stand
firm. She sought the Ambassador's assistance to draw a
response from Saakashvili that would begin to defuse the
situation. The Ambassador told Zourabichvili that the USG
cannot take a position on the date of elections, but has
advocated changes to make the electoral system more fair and
will continue to do so. Furthermore, he said, we are
encouraging Saakashvili to enter into dialogue with the
opposition, but as Assistant Secretary Fried had said
publicly, we are not mediating the crisis.

--------------
Saakashvili Speech Disappoints Many
--------------


9. (U) The protests continued for a third day on November 4,
with up to 10,000 people in front of Parliament at its peak.
Late in the day, it was announced that President Saakashvili
would appear on television at ten o'clock p.m. His
appearance was in the form of an interview recorded earlier
in the day. Saakashvili defended the government's
achievements since the Rose Revolution, including new
infrastructure, reliable energy supplies and stronger defense
capabilities. He admitted problems like continued,
widespread unemployment and inflation, but pointed to new
factories being opened and blamed inflation on monopolies'
control over imports. He attributed the opposition's success
so far to support from "dark forces" and a "factory of lies"
similar to what attacked Boris Yeltsin in Russia in the
1990's. He accused them of attempting to repeat the Rose
Revolution, but this time without any talent. He warned that
the opposition protests are creating the impression of a
weakening Georgia. Turning to the opposition's specific
demands, he said that the date for elections was changed to
prevent Russian politicians from stirring up trouble in
Georgia for the benefit of their own chances in elections to
be held in late 2007 and early 2008. He also said concern
about the possible recognition of Abkhazia by Russia in the
aftermath of Kosovo independence influenced the decision.
Despite the opposition's demands, he refused to consider
changing the Georgian election date.


10. (C) Saakashvili's performance disappointed many
Georgians with whom we have talked, in that he did not seem

TBILISI 00002729 003.2 OF 003


to take the opposition's challenge head on and address the
real concern many citizens feel about the economic and social
situation in the country. Predictably, opposition leaders
were dismissive. Berdzenishvili called the interview "utter
nonsense" and more moderate leaders, like Zourabichvili,
considered that he is out of touch with the people. The
opposition announced plans on Monday to picket administrative
buildings in order to ratchet up the pressure on the
government.

--------------
Comment
--------------


11. (C) The size of the protests reflects what is a real
concern among many Georgians about an economy that is growing
but is not yet producing jobs, especially for older workers
who may have been doing relatively well in Soviet days before
the collapse of the economy in the early 1990's. The
Saakashvili government's apparent belief in its own
invincibility has also resulted in a widespread impression
that it is arrogant and unwilling to listen to the working
man's social and economic concerns. The protests on Friday
were swelled with a large number of people from the regions.
By Saturday and Sunday, the few thousand protesters remaining
on the streets were by and large male, from 40-60 years old,
and apparently workers or casually self-employed people.
Only a smattering of women, young people or intelligentsia
were observable, by contrast to the 2003 Rose Revolution
which brought Georgians from every walk of life to the
street. Many of the demonstrators are reportedly supporters
of the leftist Shalva Natelashvili and his Labor Party. Even
as we hear disappointment with the government's efforts to
address the key economic and social concerns, we also hear
rising criticism of the opposition for its unrealistic
demands and shrill, demagogic rhetoric.
TEFFT