OVERVIEW OF GEORGIA'S LEADING OPPOSITION PARTIES

UNCLAS TBILISI 002710

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV GG
SUBJECT: OVERVIEW OF GEORGIA'S LEADING OPPOSITION PARTIES

REF: A) TBILISI 2437, B) TBILISI 2483, C) TBILISI 2662, D) TBILISI

2596


1. (SBU) Summary: Of the 191 political parties officially
registered at the Ministry of Justice, 182 parties are formally
operating, but only a few are really active on the political scene.
The arrest of former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili (ref A) for
corruption on September 27 acted as a catalyst for the majority of
the leading opposition parties to form a coalition group, the United
National Council (ref B). The New Rightists and Industrialists are
the only major parties to abstain from joining the Council. Details
of the major leading opposition parties - the New Rightists,
Industrialists, Republicans, Conservatives, Labor Party, and
Georgia's Way - are outlined below. End Summary.

Prospects of Unification Unclear
--------------


2. (SBU) One year before the parliamentary elections scheduled for
fall 2008, the ruling United National Movement (UNM) seems likely to
win a majority in the 150-member Parliament (to be reduced from the
current 235 seats). Experts and media surmise that given the
current electoral system for single-seat MPs, UNM will win the
majority of the 50 single-seat mandates. (Note: Under the
"winner-takes-all" system, the party which receives the highest
percentage of votes in an electoral district takes all of the seats
in the district - usually around 5 or 6. End note.) In addition,
UNM is projected to win at least 30-40 percent of the remaining
seats through the proportional party-list elections, guaranteeing a
simple majority. Some opposition members believe that the UNM has
configured the current election rules so they can take 80 percent of
the party-list seats, even if they win only 40 percent of the
popular vote, and guarantee themselves another constitutional
majority.


3. (SBU) The prospects of the leading opposition parties, which had
to rebuild following the Rose Revolution, are unclear. Despite the
recent formation of the ten-party opposition coalition, the United
National Council, the objectives of its various member parties
remain vague and contradictory outside of their four core demands:
1) hold parliamentary elections in Spring 2008, as was originally
mandated in the Constitution; 2) change the majoritarian system from
winner-takes-all to a true single mandate system whereby each
candidate is elected by the votes he or she receives; 3) change the
Central Election Commission's composition to ensure political
parity; 4) release alleged political prisoners.


4. (SBU) The opposition parties' leitmotif is "Georgia without
Saakashvili" or "Georgia without the President" (ref C). Though the
opposition's ideological and strategic tools for implementation are
still in the formative stage, the newly coined slogan is supposed to
recall the phrase "Georgia without Shevardnadze" used by the UNM in
its ascent to power.

New Rightists
--------------


5. (SBU) New Rightists (NR) claim a formal membership of 16,000 and
a well-developed network of regional organizations. Largely due to
its strong representation nationwide, NR, in coalition with the
Industrialists Party, was the only opposition group to overcome the
7 percent barrier in the March 2004 elections. The stated political
values of the party are: limited government, rule of law, and
personal dignity. Of the various opposition parties, the New
Rightists have come closest to articulating a true party platform.
In the upcoming campaign the party plans to focus on three domestic
issues: a stronger separation of the branches of government,
protection of personal property, and enhancement of job security.
For the past year NR criticized the authorities for subordinating
all three branches of government to a powerful president, violation
of property rights, and arbitrary dismissal of employees due to
political changes. NR will rely on these issues to widen the
party's appeal. The New Rightists are led by longtime Chairman and
MP David Gamkrelidze, and MPs David Saganelidze, Pikria Chikhradze
and Mamuka Katsitadze.


6. (SBU) According to IRI polls, NR already has 5 percent of popular
support, though the party leadership believes that they will win 25
percent of the votes "provided the 2008 elections are free and
fair." The party has two weaknesses with the Georgian public: its
association with big business and former President Shevardnadze.
Many people still remember NR's last minute support for Shevardnadze
at the November 2003 parliamentary session, the last under
Shevardnadze's rule.


7. (SBU) In order to strengthen its chances, NR is taking steps
toward reunification with its former election partner - the
Industrialists party. At the same time NR will be trying to bring
well-recognized faces into the party, including Ana Dolidze, former
GYLA chairman, and her husband Irakli Kakabadze, leader of the
Equality Institute. Both Dolidze and Kakabadze are living
temporarily in the United States, and are actively critical of the
Government of Georgia.

Industrialists
--------------


8. (SBU) Industrialists (aka Industry will Save Georgia),like the
New Rightists, refused to join the demonstrations leading to the
Rose Revolution in November 2003. Together with the NR, the
Industrialists provided the quorum for the opening session of the
Parliament, which many believe was rigged by Shevardnadze's Citizens
Union of Georgia. The party, which is not perceived as radical, and
its leaders, Giorgi Topadze and Zurab Tkemaladze, have traditionally
been on good terms with the authorities. It overcame the 7 percent
threshold in the 2004 election in coalition with NR, and has seats
in Parliament. The politically moderate position of the party may
be largely due to its business connections, as the party's core
sympathizers are generally older members of the business community.
According to IRI, popular support for the party has remained stable
at 4 percent. With the proposed lowering of the election threshold
from seven percent to five percent by President Saakashvili (ref D),
the Industrialists may choose not to form a bloc with the NR and
participate in the elections independently.


9. (SBU) In the past the party's leadership has advocated
protectionist policies for Georgian business, often criticizing the
IMF for their restrictions on Georgia's economic policies. At
present, the party's main policies are still very similar to the
NR's platform - especially as relates to protection of property
rights and unhampered business development.


10. (SBU) Neither the New Rightists nor the Industrialists are
members of the United National Council and are maintaining their
distance since the formation of the Council around Okruashvili -- a
figure they consistently criticized since he began his government
career.

Republicans
--------------


11. (SBU) Republican party leaders characterize their party as
liberal, but in the European sense, since their platform focuses on
protection of personal property, reduction of taxes, and a push to
reduce the size and power of government. The party claims 3000
members throughout Georgia and 40 regional branches. According to
party leaders, the party's weakness is undeveloped representation at
the regional level. It relies on the strength of several well known
leaders, David Usupashvili, MP David Berdzenishvili, Tinatin
Khidasheli, MP Levan Berdzenishvili, and MP Ivliane Khaindrava, who
rotate the chairmanship.


12. (SBU) Party supporters characterize the Republicans as the
"party of intellectuals," and while many of its leaders are
generally liked for their relatively moderate views and consistent
logic, the party does not win many votes. Lately, the party has
advocated the introduction of a "parliamentary republic" system that
would greatly reduce the power of the President. The idea is poorly
understood by the general public. According to IRI polls, the party
has 4-5 percent of public support.

Conservatives
--------------


13. (SBU) Conservatives have formed a formal alliance or faction
with the Republicans in Parliament, though this very coalition is
said to be undermining the Conservatives' support. The
Conservatives' main base, former supporters of Georgia's first,
ill-fated President, Zviad Gamsakhurdia, reportedly have not
forgiven the Conservatives for their coalition with the Republicans
- who were the intellectual force behind the 1992 coup against
Gamsakhurdia. According to IRI polls, Conservatives have
approximately 3 percent of popular support. It is possible in the
pre-election period the alliance may dissolve and the Conservatives
may move closer to Konstantine Gamsakhurdia's Freedom Party (which
is also making some strides in the current political atmosphere) or
Salome Zourabichvili's Georgia's Way. MPs Zviad Dzidziguri and Kakha
Kukava are the two foremost leaders of the Conservative Party.

Labor Party
--------------

14. (SBU) Like the Republican Party, the Labor Party has been in
opposition since its establishment in 1995. Unlike the Republicans,
the Labor Party lacks pluralistic leadership and depends on the
popularity of its leader, Shalva Natelashvili. Most Georgian
political observers do not consider Natelashvili a serious political
figure, and the party has inflicted serious damage on itself by
condemning the widely supported Rose Revolution. Circulating rumors
that Natelashvili is financed by Russia are also contributing to his
unpopularity. However, Natelashvili still maintains a base among
the poorer segments of the population and those who have lost
positions since the Rose Revolution. His popularity also has risen
lately following the GoG's policy of curbing small street vendors, a
source of income to many vulnerable families. Nearly all of the
10-11 percent of support for the leftist parties in Georgia goes to
Labor, and the party should have little trouble getting into
Parliament with a 5 percent threshold.

15. (SBU) The party's platform takes a strong socialist stance
supporting free health care, free education, and widely available
social services. The Labor Party also advocates nationalization of
strategically important industries and supports restriction of the
President's powers. However, Natelashvili's position as the
leftmost Georgian politician is under competition from other leftist
forces, including Koba Davitashvili's Party of the People and Jondi
Baghaturia's People's Council.
Georgia's Way
--------------


16. (SBU) Georgia's Way, chaired by Salome Zourabichvili, former
Minister of Foreign Affairs, does not have a clear platform, though
the party generally advocates liberal values like human rights,
freedom of speech and a free press. At a March 2007 assembly of the
party, a much-quoted Zourabichvili said, "We have to bring back
Georgian values; the tolerance and solidarity that we are losing
today." Zourabichvili is very critical of any policies and steps
taken by the authorities. While her party is a member of the United
National Council, she prefers to maintain a distance from the
coalition. Zourabichvili's haughty, French personality has
alienated some of her potential party members and supporters, and in
that sense, her "Europeanism" may not be widely appealing to the
public at large. Her party has not entirely recovered from losses
in the 2006 local elections, and popular support for the party is
around 1-2 percent.

Comment
--------------


17. (SBU) The main goal of the United National Council is to force
the government to hold pre-term parliamentary elections in April

2008. The Council sees the measure as the main solution for the
current political crisis that they themselves have engineered with
the help of the departed Irakli Okruashvili. Beyond that, it does
not offer any organized program for Georgia's political fortune or
economic reforms. Taken separately, none of the above opposition
parties have developed a consistent party platform of their own
beyond attacking the current government. As the elections approach,
the opposition parties may try to focus on concrete issues but at
this stage, the parties lack a short-term or long-term vision for
the country's future that can be easily communicated to the general
public.

TEFFT