OPPOSITION DRUMMING FOR SUPPORT IN REGIONS FOR NOVEMBER 2

UNCLAS TBILISI 002662

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

SIPDIS

E.O 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV GG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION DRUMMING FOR SUPPORT IN REGIONS FOR NOVEMBER 2
PROTEST

REF: TBILISI 2559


1. Summary: The United National Council of ten opposition parties
(reftel) has applied for a public demonstration permit with the city
of Tbilisi for their November 2 anti-government demonstration. They
are actively promoting smaller-scale demonstrations in the regions
and recruiting people to attend the November 2 protest in the
capital. The Council's preparations are meeting with mixed success
so far. End summary.


2. Representatives of the ten opposition parties, which call
themselves the United National Council, started a regional tour on
October 23. The purpose of the tour is to mobilize citizens in the
regions to attend the opposition "Big Rally" scheduled for November
2 in Tbilisi. The tour itinerary was announced on TV and published
in the press.


3. On October 23, the opposition leaders visited towns of
Chokhatauri and Ozurgeti, in Guria region and Batumi, Ajara.
Published reports said "several thousand" attended these events, and
Republican MP David Berdzenishvili estimated the first crowd at
2,500 people and said around 7,000 people attended the Batumi rally.
The main slogan of the rally in Batumi was "Georgia without the
President, Ajara without Varshalomidze!" This slogan recalls the
Rose Revolution when citizens rallied behind the call for "Georgia
without Shevardnadze, Ajara without Abashidze!" Reportedly,
supporters of Aslan Abashidze, former head of the local government
of Autonomous Republic of Ajara who was ousted in 2003, joined the
rally.


4. On October 24, opposition leaders visited the seaport of Poti.
The meeting in Poti proved unsuccessful, as people did not gather in
the city center. After driving around for some time with horns and
loudspeakers, the opposition left for Samtredia and Zugdidi where
they found more supporters. Berdzenishvili said some 600 supporters
attended in Samtredia. Of the National Council, only Konstantine
Gamsakhurdia spoke in his home region of Zugdidi. On the same day,
the leaders returned to Tbilisi to hold meetings with
representatives of medical doctors and NGOs.


5. The rallying cry of the meetings is "I Am Not Afraid." The
Council is calling for people to "stand up" against Saakashvili's
"repressive regime." Their main demand is to hold preterm
Parliamentary elections in April, 2008.


6. Concurrently, the opposition is preparing for the November 2
rally, and has already filed a request for permission with the
Tbilisi municipality. Council leader Koba Davitashvili (Party of
the People) said in a briefing that the Council expects about
100,000 people to attend in front of Parliament on Rustaveli Avenue.
This is the high end of expectations, and no one is able to
accurately predict what attendance will be. Berdzenishvili said "we
can bring as many people from the regions as we want; the only
hindrance is money to pay for transportation." The mayor's office
formally has 10 days to consider the request for the rally, though
the decision is expected to be known in two or three days.
Rejection of the request, or offering a different venue, will
increase the opposition's resentment of the government.

TEFFT