OPPOSITION RESPONDS TO SAAKASHVILI, OTHER RECENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002610

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM GG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION RESPONDS TO SAAKASHVILI, OTHER RECENT
POLITICAL EVENTS

REF: A. TBILISI 2596


B. TBILISI 2559

C. TBILISI 2574


1. (SBU) Summary: President Saakashvili's October 16 proposal
(ref A) for lowering the party list threshold for next year's
Parliamentary election was pocketed by the opposition and met
with additional demands. The United National Council of
opposition parties (ref B) on October 17 released a manifesto
outlining the group's policy priorities. Key demands
include: holding Parliamentary elections in Spring 2008,
creating a new election administration with representatives
from political parties, changing the current majoritarian
"winner-takes-all" system, and releasing "political
prisoners." Without seeking an appointment, the Council's
leaders attempted to visit Saakashvili's office to deliver
their demands on October 17, but were not given a meeting.
In a closed meeting for Western diplomats on October 18,
Labor Party Chairman Shalva Natelashvili called for early
elections. He asked for Western support for the early
elections, for countering the "unconstitutional" government,
and for investigating Okruashvili's accusations against
Saakashvili. Currently in London, Badri Patarkatsishvili
(ref C),published his vision for Georgia's foreign and
domestic policy in all major Georgian newspapers on October

18. The piece noted that Georgia must pursue its own
interests above friendships. He said currently Georgia's
most important foreign policy interests are the U.S. and
Russia. End Summary.

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Early Elections and Political Prisoners
--------------


2. (U) On October 16 President Saakashvili proposed to lower
the party list threshold for next year's Parliamentary
election to five percent (down from seven percent) and called
for "constructive political dialogue" (ref A). The ten
opposition parties that constitute the United National
Council (ref B) responded on October 17. The opposition
pocketed Saakashvili's proposal and repeated their four other
demands in a letter to Saakashvili and Speaker of Parliament
Nino Burjanadze. In it they requested a meeting on how to
pull the country out of its current "political crisis." The
letter demanded: 1) hold Parliamentary elections in Spring
2008, 2) create a new election administration to reform the
Central Election Commission (CEC) and include representatives
from political parties, 3) change the current majoritarian
"winner-takes-all" system, 4) release "political prisoners"
and "prisoners of conscience." (Note: In addition to these
points, the manifesto also calls for: commitment to European
and NATO integration, restoration of Georgia's territorial
integrity, independence of the judiciary, an end to political
violence, and protection of property rights. End note.)


3. (U) Council leaders downplayed the importance of the
election threshold compared to the CEC and majoritarian
issues. Davitashvili said the President's proposal was made
to "bribe the opposition." He said the President, who also
announced a program for one-time payments of electric and gas
bills of up to $60 USD to approximately half the country's
population for the coming winter, was seeking a "way out" of
the current political situation. MP Pikria Chikhradze of the
New Rightists (which is not part of the National Council)
agreed that dialogue with the ruling party is impossible if
the UNM refuses to compromise on the election code. Even so,
the opposition claims that they do not want to miss an
opportunity to engage in dialogue with the President.
Republican Party leader Tinatin Khidasheli stated that any
such meeting should be held publicly and "not behind closed
doors." The Council leaders came to the State Chancellery on
October 17 to present their demands in person to President
Saakashvili. However, they had not requested a meeting in
advance and were denied admission. Saakashvili left for
Portugal later that night.


4. (U) On October 17, Ruling party MP Giga Bokeria said that
the UNM and President are ready for dialogue, but not in the
opposition's proposed manner. On October 18, Parliament's
Majority Leader, Maia Nadiradze, ruled out any change to the
CEC's composition. The same day, ruling party MP Shota
Malashkhia appealed to law enforcement to investigate
outspoken National Council leader Goga Khaindrava's decision
to build "dangerous factories" in the Tskhinvali conflict
region while Khaindrava was State Minister of Conflict
Resolution.


5. (U) On October 16, four activists from a newly-created
opposition youth movement, Georgia Without Violence, were

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arrested for attempting to obstruct Rustaveli Avenue, shortly
after the movement's founding. On October 17, the four were
sentenced to 20 days detention.


6. (SBU) On October 18, Labor Party Chairman Shalva
Natelashvili called in Western diplomats to seek their
support for his agenda. Natelashvili asked the diplomats to
support the opposition's call for elections in Spring 2008.
Taking off from that point, he accused the Saakashvili
government of being "unconstitutional," of holding political
prisoners and of repressing the media. He linked
Okruashvili's accusations to his own suspicions that
Saakashvili ordered the death of former Prime Minister Zurab
Zhvania. He claimed that Saakashvili had offered him "good
business and high posts in government" in return for docility
and accused Saakashvili's uncle of being a Russian agent. He
predicted that the government will soon declare a state of
emergency, arrest him and other opposition leaders, and
cancel elections. He then demanded that the Embassies in
Tbilisi deny visas to government officials because of their
conduct.

--------------
Patarkatsishvili Writes Policy Piece
--------------


7. (U) On October 17, Badri Patarkatsishvili outlined his
vision for Georgia's foreign and domestic policy. He said
that he believes Georgia should be a federal state. He said
"the central government should be in charge of defense and
economy. All the rest should be relegated to the regions."
He advocated a two-chamber parliamentary system without a
president. In a nod to the Patriarch, he agreed that a
constitutional monarchy merits "society's attention." He
said that "the United States is strong and friendly, but it
is too far, while Russia is aggressive, but it is close to
us." Consequently, Patarkatsishvili said that Georgia's
foreign policy should be "balanced." He said Georgia's EU
and NATO memberships "are fully in line" with the Georgian
people's interests. Opposition members largely approved
Patarkatsishvili's program. The UNM responded by focusing on
Patarkatsishvili's business interests in Russia, saying it is
natural that he would "cede everything" to satisfy these
personal interests.


8. (SBU) Comment: Speculation continues to swirl around
Patarkatsishvili's true political intentions. The rich
Georgian businessman publicly sympathizes with the
opposition. His policy statement brings him another step
closer to an overt leadership role. End comment.
TEFFT