OKRUASHVILI FADES FOR NOW, PATARKATSISHVILI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 002574

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM GG
SUBJECT: OKRUASHVILI FADES FOR NOW, PATARKATSISHVILI
DISTRACTS

REF: A. TBILISI 2542


B. TBILISI 2559

C. TBILISI 2558

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) Summary: Irakli Okruashvili has secluded himself in
his Tbilisi apartment following two weeks of ups and downs in
his political fortunes. In an October 11 press conference,
Okruashvili's Movement for a United Georgia party secretary,
MP Koka Guntsadze, announced that the former Defense Minister
is quitting politics (ref A). Guntsadze told the press that
Okruashvili feels unwell physically and mentally, but that he
"has done his job" by galvanizing the opposition. Following
Okruashvili's release from jail on October 9, businessman
Badri Patarkatsishvili has become more outspoken and is
dropping hints he may take a more active role in politics
himself. Accused of political intrigue by Saakashvili's
National Movement, he was forced out of his position as
Chairman of the Georgian National Olympic Committee (GNOC) on
October 9. On October 10, he voluntarily resigned as
President of the Federation of Georgian Businessmen, as he
said, to spare its members the pressure that was levied on
the GNOC board. Members of the united opposition (ref B)
intend to visit Europe and the U.S. in the coming weeks to
rally support for a "democratic alternative to the
Saakashvili regime." The daily newspaper 24 Saati
editorialized that the unified opposition is destroying the
"normal political process." The Conservative Party issued a
statement criticizing the nomination of Levan Tarkhnishvili
as the new head of the Central Election Commission (CEC).
Finally, the radical ideas of a so-called parliamentary
republic ("Georgia without a President") and the
establishment of a constitutional monarchy (ref C) lost
traction in the press. End Summary.

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Okruashvili in Seclusion
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2. (U) In a press conference October 11 Irakli Okruashvili's
Movement for a United Georgia party secretary, MP Koka
Guntsadze, announced that the former Defense Minister is
quitting politics. After meeting with Okruashvili privately
in his Tbilisi apartment, Guntsadze announced that
Okruashvili feels unwell physically and mentally. He
concluded that Okruashvili "has done his job" by galvanizing
the opposition, and that "we, his friends and partners, want
to state that we fully understand him and we have no
complaints against him." Guntsadze said that he and the
other members of the new party will "continue to fulfill our
goals and we will respond to the authorities appropriately on
November 2," referring to the protest planned by the united
opposition. Okruashvili has not made any public statement or
appearance since his release on bail.

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Will Patarkatsishvili Openly Contend for Power?
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3. (U) After Okruashvili's release, National Movement members
attacked businessman Badri Patarkatsishvili from various
angles in public and the media. MP Giga Bokeria denounced
Patarkatsishvili, based on Okruashvili's statement that he
made his false allegations to gain "political dividends" for
himself and Patarkatsishvili. Bokeria reminded
Patarkatsishvili that the GOG receives frequent requests from
Russia for his extradition to Russia. The National Movement
chairman, Davit Kirkitadze, circulated political cartoons
depicting Patarkatsishvili sheltering opposition politicians.
On October 9, Patarkatsishvili was ousted from his position
as Chairman of the GNOC, by a 26 to 3 vote of its board
members. In a live interview on pro-government television
station, Rustavi-2, Minister of Economic Development Giorgi
Arveladze said that the fevered response to Okruashvili's
arrest was inspired by Patarkatsishvili, "according to
scenarios written somewhere in Moscow." He accused
Patarkatsishvili of using his competing Imedi TV to make the
public "hopeless" and "hysterical."


4. (U) On October 10 Patarkatsishvili denounced his ouster
from the GNOC as contrary to the organization's charter. He
said that several board members told him they had been
pressured by the National Movement to suspend him. He
rejected Bokeria's and Arveladze's claims and said that he
has never supported any conspiracy against the government.
Despite rumors that he would sell Imedi TV, he said he could
never be pressured to sell the company. However, the
following day he announced he would resign as President of
the Federation of Georgian Businessmen, in order to spare its

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members the pressure that was levied on the GNOC board.


5. (U) On October 11 Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava suggested
that Imedi TV's "independent editorial policy is being put at
risk" by its co-owner, Patarkatsishvili. The mayor used
mocking word-play on Patarkatsishvili's first name, hinting
that the businessman is a "weakling." He also said that
Imedi TV operates as the opposition's "headquarters," it
"swears at the authorities, and is being used by
Patarkatsishvili to create immunity for himself." University
students protested in front of Patarkatsishvili's residence,
throwing out fake thousand-dollar bills with his picture on
them. Despite this, Bokeria denied that the government has
plans to arrest or extradite Patarkatsishvili.
Patarkatsishvili confirmed that he is not afraid of
extradition, because the Georgian constitution prohibits the
extradition of Georgian citizens. He departed Georgia for
London on October 12, but is expected to return.


6. (C) Comment: Post has heard rumors that President
Saakashvili is less inclined to attack Patarkatsishvili than
his confidant Bokeria. The attention paid to
Patarkatsishvili has distracted nearly all media attention
away from Okruashvili. As a businessman and one of the
country's largest taxpayers, Patarkatishvili should share an
interest in stability with President Saakashvili. As
Patarkatsishvili hints that he may take Okruashvili's place
at the head of the opposition to the Saakashvili government,
the National Movement is ramping up the rhetoric. End
comment.

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Opposition Plans an Appeal to the West
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7. (U) Leaders of the united opposition intend to visit
Europe and the U.S. in the coming weeks to rally support for
a "democratic alternative to the Saakashvili regime." Salome
Zourabichvili of Georgia's Way will visit Berlin and Paris.
David Usupashvili of the Republican Party and Konstantine
Gamsakhurdia of the Freedom Party will visit Brussels and EU
Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana. The Republican's Davit
Usupashvili is visiting the U.S. in late October.


8. (U) On October 3, the newspaper 24 Saati editorialized
that the unified opposition is destroying the "normal
political process." The paper criticized the move, saying
that the parties' united front absolves them of their
individual responsibility and perpetuates the belief that
power cannot change from one party to another by elections in
Georgia. The editorial suggested that all of Georgia's
parties need to establish platforms that can win them power
on their merits, rather than simply opposing every step by
the current government. In an interview 24 Saati published
on October 12, Usupashvili said that the planned November 2
protest is "not a goal in itself" and could be scrapped if
the National Movement engaged in dialogue with the opposition
over vital issues. Meanwhile members of the National Council
are campaigning in the regions for supporters to participate
on November 2.


9. (U) On October 12 the Conservative Party issued a
statement criticizing the nomination of Levan Tarkhnishvili
as the new head of the Central Election Commission (CEC). The
opposition believes he is too close to the National Movement.
The media largely ignored ideas for doing away with the
Presidency entirely and installing a constitutional monarchy
in Georgia during the latter part of the week. A
Parliamentary debate on the constitutional monarchy proposal
is scheduled to be held on October 25, at the initiative of
the New Rightist party. The National Movement repeated that
the idea "would be currently inappropriate for Georgia."

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Comment
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10. (C) As Okruashvili's star waned over the week, Badri
Patarkatsishvili began to hint that he may take the
government up on its challenge to come out from behind the
scenes and take a more open political role in Georgian
politics. Patarkatsishvili has the advantage of nearly
inexhaustible finances and a guaranteed supportive media
outlet in Imedi TV, but he carries serious negative baggage
from his days as a minor oligarch in the service of Boris
Berezovsky in Russia. The opposition touted their meetings
with the EU and U.S. ambassadors (ref B),and want the public
to think the U.S. and other western countries support them in
their call for regime change. They will want a large turnout
for protests on November 2 to convince the public and western

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observers that they enjoy broad public support,
notwithstanding Usupashvili's suggestion that they may be
called off if the government opens a dialogue. The clash of
two major television stations controlled by opposing
political forces will also have an important impact on the
course of the political crisis and how it is perceived in
Georgia and the West. Patarkatsishvili told an Imedi
interviewer that if he goes into politics he will turn the
management of the station over to his partner, Rupert
Murdoch's News Corp. News Corp, he said, will be "above
suspicion of interference in Georgian politics."
TEFFT