GEORGIA MISSILE ATTACK UPDATE -- AUGUST 9

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001993

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA & EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA MISSILE ATTACK UPDATE -- AUGUST 9

REF: A. TBILISI 1975

B. TBILISI 1958

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Mark X. Perry for reasons 1.4(b&d).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Speaking at a press conference August 8, Foreign
Minister Bezhuashvili maintained the Georgian government's
moderate tone in talking about the missile impact on Georgian
territory August 6 (reftels). He called for a "group of
international experts" to investigate the incident, something
the Georgians see as a mechanism that would help them with
the investigation, review the evidence, and provide
independent objectivity to the findings. An OSCE Mission
member has privately indicated to us that he welcomes this
inclusive but Georgian-led approach, saying that OSCE has
neither the mandate nor the political maneuverability to be
able to run an investigation on its own. End Summary.

Georgians Call for International Expert Group
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2. (C) In a press conference August 8, Foreign Minister Gela
Bezhuashvili said Georgia had decided, in coordination with
its partners, to "set up a group of international experts and
invite all partner countries to designate their own
representatives to this group, military or aviation experts
who will study thoroughly the evidence made available by the
Georgian side." Plans are already underway for international
experts to review and assist in the investigation. A team
from EUCOM will arrive in Georgia August 10, including an
expert on radar and air operations control, and two munitions
experts. Deputy Defense Minister Batu Kutelia has the lead
in the Georgian government in setting up the international
team. So far Lithuania, Poland, Sweden, and perhaps others
have offered to participate. The plan is to have the experts
meet soon, perhaps as early as Monday, August 13, to begin
reviewing the evidence.

OSCE Reluctant to Lead
--------------

3. (C) Jurgen Schmidt of the OSCE Mission told us August 9
that OSCE was not in a position to lead an investigation of
the incident. In the first place, he said, OSCE had no
mandate for such a role, and this mandate would have to be
expressly granted either by negotiations with the sides in
the conflict, or as a result of a decision in Vienna. He
said that OSCE saw its role as reporting on this incident as
it would any other in the "zone of conflict." He added that,
given the internal politics of OSCE, the organization might
not be able to lead an investigation to a satisfactory
result, even if the evidence was entirely clear. Schmidt's
comments about the limits of OSCE's mandate appeared to echo
an August 9 statement by OSCE Chairman-in-Office Moratinos
that "The OSCE stands ready to co-operate with the
investigation within the framework of its mandate."

International Statements Past and Future
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4. (C) Georgian officials have expressed appreciation for the
strong Department statement on the incident August 8.
Regarding a possible EU statement, Saakashvili advisor Daniel
Kunin told Charge August 8 that he understood Portugal was
hesitant to issue a statement. Bezhuashvili had spoken to
British Minister for Europe Murphy to ask if he could
energize the Portuguese, and he was also planning to call
Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt. Told by Charge that top
officials at NATO believe that Georgia had not asked for a
NATO statement, Bezhuashvili said he would clarify with NATO
that a statement would be welcomed.

A Second Missile?
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5. (C) In his press conference, Bezhuashvili referred to a
reported second missile fired by the same planes that fired
the one that impacted near Gori. He called on OSCE to "to
explore the site where the second missile was dropped. It is
the de-facto regime-controlled territory. This site has to
be explored thoroughly and relevant conclusions made."
Schmidt told us that he considered eyewitness accounts of a
second missile to be credible, and that such a missile would
have likely impacted in a remote mountainous area of South

TBILISI 00001993 002 OF 002


Ossetia.

Comment
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6. (C) In consultation with the USG and others, the Georgians
appear to be taking a carefully calibrated approach to the
investigation, keeping their rhetoric restrained while
setting up an investigative mechanism that welcomes
international participation without giving the Russians a
veto over the final conclusion -- as happened with the
investigation of the March 11 attack in Kodori and as could
have happened with an OSCE-led investigation of this
incident. It remains unclear exactly how the international
team of experts would work, whether it would meet and review
evidence as a group, or would be more informal, with experts
arriving at different times to review evidence with the
Georgians. In either case, the Georgians appear eager for
international partners in the investigation. In the interest
of a thorough investigation, pressure should be brought to
bear on the South Ossetians to permit a search for a possible
second impact site.

PERRY