THE REPUBLICANS' OKRUASHVILI PROBLEM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001946

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DEPARTMENT FOR EUR DAS MATT BRYZA, EUR/CARC, AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG
SUBJECT: THE REPUBLICANS' OKRUASHVILI PROBLEM

REF: A. TBILISI 1370


B. TBILISI 1638

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Mark X. Perry for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: During a July 19 meeting with Ambassador,
opposition Republican Party Chairman, David Usupashvili,
confirmed his party is in talks with Irakli Okruashvili on
forming a joint bloc to run in the 2008 elections.
Usupashvili, who appears to favor the idea, said the
Republican Party's leadership is split over whether to join
in a 50-50 partnership with Okruashvili's team in Parliament
and support his bid for the Presidency (reftel A). Recent
polls by his party and Okruashvili indicate significant
overlap of support among likely voters. Although Okruashvili
is popular and in a strong financial position, Republican
Party leaders are concerned over his controversial past and
plans for the future. By joining with Okruashvili they will
be risking the existence of the party. Usupashvili said a
strong Okruashvili showing in 2008 could "lead to better
civic dialogue," and real opportunities for the opposition.
He said the opposition must succeed next year in order to
preserve and continue the progress in Georgia since 2003. He
believes that by teaming up with Okruashvili, they could take
as much as 40 percent of the Parliament. His goal is to
prevent a constitutional majority (2/3) for the United
National Movement (UNM). Unless the majority accepts the
opposition's proposal to reform the majoritarian
winner-takes-all system (reftel B),Usupashvili believes they
do not stand a chance in 2008 without Okruashvili. He said a
final decision would not be made before the end of the
summer. End summary.

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A Risk Worth Taking?
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2. (C) On July 19, Ambassador met with Republican Party
leaders in a follow-up to a June 16 meeting between David
Usupashvili and Poloff. Party Chairman Usupashvili, Member
of Parliament Levan Berdzenishvili, and National Committee
Member Tinatin Khidasheli, attended. Usupashvili met with
former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili around July 1, per
Okruashvili's request. They discussed forming a joint bloc
between the Republican Party and Okruashvili's team, whereby
they would be equal partners in supporting Okruashvili for a
Presidential run in next year's election (reftel A).
Usupashvili said that his party, and Okruashvili, have
conducted polls this year revealing common support between an
Okruashvili presidential campaign and Republican Party
voters. Both parties have examined other potential partners
for the coming 2008 elections. Usupashvili said they
considered Badri Patarkatsishvili, but he did not appear to
be a viable alternative due to serious disputes between the
two earlier this year. He believes now that Patarkatsishvili
will not actively oppose the Republicans or Okruashvili.
Neither identified any other suitable coalition partners.


3. (C) Usupashvili reiterated his party's need for financial
support, and Okruashvili has strong financial resources. The
former defense minister is popular publicly. However,
Usupashvili acknowledged that teaming with Okruashvili is a
risky consideration. He told Poloff that Okruashvili now
says he was personally against some of his own actions and
words regarding South Ossetia, but that they were a result of
the President's direction. Okruashvili "says he is clean"
from wrongdoing during his cabinet days and that he was the
only one "to resist and not follow Saakashvili to the end."
He also claimed that he was uninvolved in former
Parliamentarian Gelashvili's beating in the street. All of
the Republican Party leaders are concerned whether the
party's progressive ideology could survive such a
partnership. They fear Okruashvili may not be an equal
partner and could consume them. They feel betrayed by
Saakashvili after partnering with the President in 2003 and
are once bitten, twice shy. An additional concern is that
Okruashvili will not reach the required age of 35 to run for
President until 06 November 2008. Consequently, the
possibility was raised that the UNM will hold the election
earlier.

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The Goal
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4. (C) In addition to the survival of his party, Usupashvili
is truly concerned about the viability of Parliament without
a functioning opposition. Usupashvili's view is that "if we
can't get elected, what good are we? We might as well be an
NGO." During a July 16 meeting with Poloff, Usupashvili gave

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an update on his party's goals regarding next year's
election. He noted the party would like to gain 20 percent
of the seats in parliament, or at the very least prevent a
constitutional majority (two-thirds) by the National
Movement. He stated that he is looking to build the party
during the next election, as winning the Presidency may be
unrealistic. As the new Parliament will shepherd in the next
Presidency, the election is critical for both institutions.
His preferred goal is to gain 40-45 percent of Parliament for
the opposition. Khidasheli, who has a personal history of
mutual animosity with Okruashvili, still recognized that the
Republicans need money and a strong candidate. She said a
constitutional majority for the UNM would be a "final
disaster for us." All three representatives were very
concerned about preventing the constitutional majority.
Usupashvili said that "people want changes from Saakashvili's
team, they don't just want someone to replace him." He
emphasized that unless the UNM accepts the opposition's
proposal to reform the majoritarian winner-takes-all system
(reftel B),Usupashvili said they do not stand a chance in
2008 without Okruashvili.

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The Decision - Theirs Alone to Make
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5. (C) Usupashvili will meet with Okruashvili again in a few
weeks. Usupashvili believes the UNM will be dangerous if
they feel threatened. The biggest risk, he noted, is if the
opposition is fragmented and 80-85 percent of the vote goes
to Saakashvili, which will be bad for Georgia in the long
run. He asked Ambassador for his thoughts. Ambassador
reiterated that USG could not advise Usupashvili what to do.
Ambassador stated that with Parliament shrinking from 230 to
150 seats after the coming election, the UNM will be under
some pressure regarding who stays and who may leave the UNM.
He also asked Usupashvili if the Republicans would be equal
partners with Okruashvili. Ambassador acknowledged the
momentous decision they are facing, and the difficulty in
ensuring they would be entering a truly equal partnership.
Usupashvili said Okruashvili is awaiting an answer. He said
a decision would be made likely during September or October,
as the campaign begins. Usupashvili said he would be in
Washington in November. Ambassador offered embassy
assistance in arranging consultations.
PERRY