GEORGIA: JUNE 27 UPDATE ON AFRICAN SWINE FEVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001542

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CARC, OES/S AND EB/TPP/ABT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2017
TAGS: EAGR SENV PGOV TBIO GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: JUNE 27 UPDATE ON AFRICAN SWINE FEVER
OUTBREAK

REF: A. TBILISI 01364


B. TBILISI 1329

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, reason 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. As of June 26, over 42,000 pigs have died of
African Swine Fever (ASF) in Georgia with an additional 4500
culled. First Deputy Minister of Agriculture Bakur Kvezereli
confirmed to Econoff the GoG strategy of containment:
quarantine affected areas, disinfect entrance points to
ASF-free zones, and cull stray pigs, pigs immediately
adjacent to affected areas, and surviving pigs of infected
herds. GoG officials have not yet decided to cull the entire
population of pigs - estimated to be over 550,000 before the
outbreak. Only six areas have not yet reported infections.
Post's Defense Threat Reduction Office (DTRO) is providing
testing kits, although supplies are running short. Georgia
is waiting to accept offers of help from other donors until
after GoG officials - led by Prime Minister Noghaideli -
decide on a path forward, which will be based on the results
of an epidemiological investigation. End Summary.


2. (C) As of June 26, over 42,000 pigs have died of African
Swine Fever (ASF) in Georgia with an additional 4500 culled.
An additional 600 pigs are dying from ASF each day - half of
them culled. Regional and village officials throughout
Georgia provide daily updates on the affected pigs to three
dedicated 24/7 phone hotlines the Ministry of Agriculture
(MOA) established. Econoff visited the hotline center, which
was staffed by five Ministry personnel keeping tallies on the
affected pigs and areas.

Strategy: Protect uninfected areas
--------------


3. (C) First Deputy Minister of Agriculture Bakur Kvezereli
confirmed to Econoff the GoG strategy of containment:
quarantine affected areas, disinfect entrance points to
ASF-free zones, and cull stray pigs, pigs immediately
adjacent to affected areas, and surviving pigs of infected
herds. ASF first appeared in western Georgia in May - likely
from mismanaged waste in Poti port. It has affected every
region along the east-west corridor that divides Georgia, and
is now in the eastern region of Kakheti. Only six areas have
not yet reported an outbreak: Adjara, Samskhe-Javakheti, two
municipalities in Kakheti, Kazbegi, and other extremely
mountainous regions. GoG officials have not yet decided to
cull the entire population of pigs - estimated to be over
550,000. Even though the affected geographical area has
grown larger, the rate of infection has not increased
significantly. The MOA is working closely with the Ministry
of Internal Affairs to limit the movement of pigs and
infection, but it is not a true quarantine--only the roads
into ASF-free zones are monitored. Nothing prevents pigs
from wandering across the borders elsewhere. MOA officials
suspect there might be two different ASF strains in Georgia,
with one possibly originating from the feed. At Kvezereli's
request, Post's DTRO officer agreed to find out if Georgia,
through its DTRO-sponsored labs, has the capability to test
for different strains. He also stressed the importance of
using the labs' computerized programs in order to track the
spread of ASF.

Damage control and assistance
--------------


4. (C) Kvezereli appeared confident that even the most remote
farmers are aware of the problem, but he admitted in some
areas, such as Kakheti in eastern Georgia and Guria in
western Georgia, there is misinformation about how best to
handle it. However, some progress is being made. He said
that former Minister of Agriculture Mikheil "Mixo"
Svimonishvili, currently the governor of Guria, is helping
local farmers understand the severity of the problem, but
that "one Mixo just isn't enough. We need more Mixos."
Ministry officials estimate that upwards of 90 percent of the
swine population in Guria - where ASF first appeared in early
May - is affected with ASF. The high rate of infection in
Guria coupled with Svimonishvili's efforts have convinced
local farmers of the severity of the problem, but even in
Guria there is not yet discussion of widespread culling.

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Kvezereli said farmers in Kakheti do not understand the
severity of the problem yet, as they have not dealt with it
for as long as those in Guria. Kvezereli appeared anxious to
more thoroughly investigate the spread of ASF and its origin
in order to better explain the problem to the public.


5. (C) Kvezereli said GEL 300,000 (approximately USD 177,000)
is earmarked for the regions to use against ASF. Some donors
have offered to help, but so far only the USG agency DTRO has
been in a position to provide immediate assistance. DTRO
supplied about 2200 reagents to test for ASF, but this is not
enough to do the mass number of tests required if Georgia
continues with its current strategy of containment. The kits
are being used at a rate of about 20 a day, and only about
1000 remain. Post's DTRO officer will investigate the
possibility of bringing in expert technical assistance to
help Georgia develop and implement a mid-term strategy. Once
the ASF problem passes, Kvezereli said the GoG - per
Noghaideli's decision - is hopeful the GoG can use the
ASF-free zones to repopulate pigs by distributing ASF-free
piglets.


6. (C) Comment. ASF may be difficult to fully eradicate in
Georgia. The government is focusing on preventing the spread
of the disease into uninfected areas and wants to avoid
having to eradicate the entire pig population of Georgia.
Even a total cull of the country's domestic pig population
would not assure success, because there are many wild swine
in remote parts of Georgia and ASF reportedly can lie dormant
for some time in ticks and be transmitted by them. It
appears the GoG has a careful plan to deal with the problem
initially, and a plan to repopulate once the problem passes.
However, it is unclear what officials will do in the interim
- where they will get more of the expensive reagents, what to
do with the mass numbers of pig carcasses, and how they will
continue the containment strategy for the requisite year to
show there is no longer a problem. Post's DTRO office is
working closely with MOA officials to assist where
appropriate and when asked, and Post will report on the GoG
strategy as it develops. End Comment.

TEFFT