ABKHAZ DE FACTO PRIME MINISTER ANKVAB ON ECONOMY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001265

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON GG
SUBJECT: ABKHAZ DE FACTO PRIME MINISTER ANKVAB ON ECONOMY
AND RELATIONS WITH THE GEORGIANS


Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4(b)&(d).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) In a meeting with Ambassador May 23, Abkhaz de facto
prime minister Alexander Ankvab acknowledged that neither
economic growth nor Russian investment in Abkhazia were high,
although he thought both would increase considerably with the
prospect of the 2014 Winter Olympics in nearby Sochi. Ankvab
said the Abkhaz had no interest in a future within Georgia,
no matter how prosperous Georgia became. He said the Abkhaz
side had called off his planned meeting in March with
Georgian Prime Minister Noghaideli because the Georgians
intended to discuss issues beyond hydroelectric power -- the
planned topic of the meeting. He said he would be willing to
talk to any Georgian official if his political leadership
instructed him to do so.

GDP? We Prefer not to Know
--------------

2. (C) The Ambassador asked Ankvab about the state of the
Abkhaz economy, and whether the de facto government
calculates GDP. Ankvab said no, adding with a smile that the
figures might be so low "they would spoil our mood." He said
there were calculations of per capita income and "how much
the state can earn," and these figures were modest but
improving. Asked if Abkhazia was benefiting from Russian
investment, Ankvab said he thought "we will," once serious
construction gets underway in connection with a Sochi
Olympics in 2014. He said Abkhazia would be the closest and
best source for gravel and other construction materials
needed for the Games.


3. (C) Ankvab said the Abkhaz administration was working on
multi-year projects to improve the road from Sochi through
Abkhazia to the Enguri River, as well as the route to Lake
Ritsa, in order to attract more summer tourists. He said
that there was not yet large-scale industrial investment from
Russia; thus far, the only major Russian investment was for
resorts in the Gagra area. He acknowledged that many of the
tourists in Abkhazia were day-trippers who came from Sochi to
take advantage of the free beaches and lower food prices.
Ankvab said Abkhazia had widened its international economic
contacts in recent years, including with Turkey. He said
Abkhazia was negotiating with large European companies.

Why No Noghaideli Meeting
--------------

4. (C) Ankvab said he was aware of the new hotels going up in
the Georgian seaside resort of Batumi, and added that if
Georgia "would forget about tensions in Abkhazia" it had a
good chance to develop economically. He said Georgia
appeared incapable of using "gentlemanly means" to promote
its goal of reclaiming Abkhazia, and he cited as examples the
building of youth camps near Abkhazia, the installation of
the Abkhaz Government-in-Exile in Upper Kodori, and
Saakashvili's speech praising three students released from
Abkhaz custody.


5. (C) The Ambassador said the Georgians had been
disappointed by the cancellation of Ankvab's meeting with
Georgian Prime Minister Noghaideli. Ankvab also expressed
disappointment, saying he had taken seriously the Georgians'
interest in discussing the renovation of hydroelectric power
production from the Enguri reservoir. Ankvab said, however,
that he had obtained information that the Georgians planned
to bring other people to the meeting, including officials
working on Georgian foreign policy and relations with
Abkhazia, as well as the press. He said his message had been
that Abkhazia was not ready for such a meeting, and had
agreed only to discuss energy production.

Our People Don't Want to Live with Georgians
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6. (C) The Ambassador noted that the failure to have even
limited meetings with the Georgians was a missed opportunity.
Ankvab agreed that personal contacts were useful, but he
argued that the Georgians gave the Abkhaz nothing to discuss,
and focused only on making Abkhazia part of Georgia. Ankvab
said this was impossible for the Abkhaz, who want to live on
their own and not be "part of anything." He dismissed the
idea of autonomy within Georgia, saying that "our people
don't want to live with the Georgians" and "there is blood
between our two nations." He said there was a real
competition of views on many political issues in Abkhazia,
but all forces were united on relations with Georgia; no
political leader would have support for changing the policy.
He said the Georgians were "unable to hide" the fact that
they were not interested in the Abkhaz themselves but in
their territory. Asked about the attitudes of the Abkhaz

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younger generation, Ankvab predicted that views toward
Georgians would be "passed in the genetic code."

UFOs in Kodori March 11?
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7. (C) Pressed by the Ambassador on the importance of
dialogue, Ankvab said he was not opposed but argued that
conditions for dialogue were not in place. Among other
complaints about Georgia, Ankvab asked why it was necessary
for Georgia to re-take control of the Upper Kodori Gorge.
The Ambassador explained that under the Moscow ceasefire
agreement the Georgians have a right to be there, and their
presence had remained within agreed limits even after the
missile attack on Georgian positions there March 11. Ankvab
then asked rhetorically "was it an attack?" and the
Ambassador responded that it was a very serious incident, as
described in the UN report. Ankvab said that it was more
like a case of UFOs. The Ambassador said such incidents
underscored the need for dialogue, and Ankvab reiterated his
support for dialogue, saying that if his political leadership
so instructed him, he would talk to "Noghaideli, Okruashvili,
or anyone else." (Note: Until corrected by the Ambassador,
Ankvab did not seem to know that former Georgian Defense
Minister Okruashvili left government in 2006.)

Comment
--------------

8. (C) Georgian officials have told us they believe that
Ankvab is a major player in Abkhaz politics, especially on
economic issues. It is clear from this conversation that a
major part of the Abkhaz economic plan is to wait for the
hoped-for Sochi Olympics to rain down investments and jobs on
Abkhazia. If in fact the International Olympic Committee
awards the 2014 games to Sochi in its meeting July 4, it is
certain that the Olympics will become the centerpiece of the
de facto authorities' internal public relations campaign. It
is interesting that even a high Abkhaz official like Ankvab
has remarkably little information about what is going on in
Georgia. For ordinary Abkhaz, with even less information
about Georgia's economic development, and potentially with a
promise from their authorities of economic deliverance in
2014, the idea of a future within Georgia will likely remain
a very tough sell. They never mention, however, that ethnic
Abkhaz are not all -- and indeed are probably not even a
majority -- of the population of Abkhazia. About one-third
of Abkhazia is composed of ethnic Georgians, and many
observers believe ethnic Armenians may now outnumber the
Abkhaz.

TEFFT