SOUTH OSSETIA WEEKEND SHOOTING INCIDENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001120

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV GG
SUBJECT: SOUTH OSSETIA WEEKEND SHOOTING INCIDENTS


Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The situation in the South Ossetian zone
of conflict (ZOC) appears relatively calm following a weekend
of shooting activity described by an OSCE observer as the
worst since 2004, when significant hostilities last broke out
between Georgia and South Ossetia. Heavy small arms and
machine gun fire, grenade and RPG explosions erupted
throughout the ZOC the night of May 12-13, following
alternative South Ossetian president Sanakoyev's speech to
the Georgian Parliament May 11. Large groups of up to 50
armed Ossetian militia were reported moving through the ZOC,
including an OSCE report of a large group headed toward
Avnevi, southwest of Tskhinvali. One Georgian policeman and
a South Ossetian civilian were wounded, but there were no
fatalities.


2. (C) According to OSCE, the South Ossetian de-facto
authorities have told both the OSCE and the Joint
Peacekeeping Force (JPKF) that South Ossetia could not
guarantee their safety if they traveled to Avnevi, and there
are currently no monitors present in the area. OSCE
Ambassador Roy Reeve continues to press the Russian commander
of the JPKF, Marat Kulakhmetov, to send a monitoring team to
Avnevi.


3. (C) On Friday, May 11, Georgian State Minister for
Conflict Resolution Merab Antadze met Boris Chochiev, South
Ossetian co-chair of the Joint Control Commission, to discuss
lifting the South Ossetian blockade on the Transcaucasian
Highway, but the talks ended with no result. On May 14,
Prime Minister Noghaideli gave a short briefing stressing
Georgia's commitment to a peaceful resolution of the
conflicts and calling on the international community,
including Russia, to take a more active role in reducing
tensions in the region. End Summary.

Heaviest shooting in ZOC since 2004
--------------


4. (C) OSCE Security Officer Noah Lane told us that the
shooting activity over the weekend was the worst he had seen
in the ZOC since major hostilities last erupted between
Georgia and South Ossetia in 2004. Heavy fire from small
arms and medium machine guns, as well as explosions from
grenades and RPGs, were reported. He said that one Georgian
policeman and one Ossetian civilian were wounded in the
firing, but no one was killed. Lane said that there were
reports of large groups of up to 50 Ossetian militia
operating throughout the ZOC during the weekend. One large
group was reported headed toward Avnevi, a vulnerable
Georgian village at the center of the 2004 hostilities. At
the time of this report, OSCE officials suspected the militia
intended to surround Avnevi. The current status of Avnevi
has not been confirmed, however, because the de-facto
authorities have refused to allow OSCE or JPKF monitors to
enter the area, warning that South Ossetia could not
guarantee their safety. South Ossetians turned away JPKF
teams headed to Avnevi twice on May 12. OSCE Ambassador
Reeve continues to push JPKF commander Kulakhmetov to send a
monitoring team to the area. As of 1800 local time May 14,
Kulakhmetov still has not sent another team to try to get to
Avnevi. OSCE believes that the militias that deployed over
the weekend are still in the field. All visible checkpoints
on both sides have been strengthened.


5. (C) Gela Zoziashvili, deputy governor of Shida Kartli,
the Georgian region that includes Gori and areas adjoining
South Ossetia, told the DCM on May 14 that he thought the
shootings were initiated by Kokoiti and not the Russians.
Zoziashvili said that South Ossetian militia fired on a
Russian JPKF checkpoint at Ergneti, who returned fire. He
said that if the Russians had orchestrated the attacks, the
Russian peacekeepers would not have been fired on.

Transcaucasian Highway still blocked
--------------


6. (C) Hours after the South Ossetians blocked the
Transcaucasian Highway May 11, Georgian State Minister for
Conflict Resolution Antadze met with South Ossetian JCC
co-chairman Boris Chochiev in Tskhinvali to try to lift the
blockade. Negotiations failed and the highway is still being
blocked by the South Ossetians. Georgian media reported on
May 14 that de-facto president Kokoiti was distributing
leaflets saying that the Transcaucasian Highway will remain
closed until all Georgian forces are withdrawn from South
Ossetia.

Sanakoyev addresses the Georgian Parliament
--------------


7. (U) The pretext for the South Ossetians' action this

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weekend is apparently the investiture of Dmitry Sanakoyev as
head of the newly formed Georgian administrative unit for
South Ossetia May 10. Speaking to the Georgian Parliament
May 11, Sanakoyev lamented the effects of violence on South
Ossetia and its people. He recalled his role in the early
fight with Georgia, blaming both sides for grave mistakes and
blaming Russia (and the Soviet Union before it) for
practicing a policy of "divide and rule." He called for
direct dialogue between Georgians and Ossetians and stressed
the role of the EU in building trust and reviving the region
economically. He said that compromises will be necessary.
The de facto government and Russia, he said, understand this
and therefore will try to provoke hostilities and suppress
every effort to restore trust. He offered the Ossetian
people a vision of peace, which he described as "real
freedom," while he asked the Georgian government for broad
autonomy and guarantees of political representation and
cultural identity inside Georgia. This must be preceded and
followed by joint social and economic projects, he said.


8. (C) The diplomatic corps, including Ambassador Tefft, EU
heads of mission, and OSCE Ambassador Reeve, attended the
speech. A few hours before the speech, Reeve admitted to
Ambassador that the Georgian decision to legitimize Sanakoyev
had gotten OSCE "off the hook," permitting Reeve to "shake
hands" with Sanakoyev officially. Reeve said he hoped that
the Georgians, after pushing hard to get to this stage, would
now slow down and allow Sanakoyev to build a local base of
support. Reeve said Sanakoyev's own people had indicated
during informal contacts with OSCE that they need time to
establish themselves.


9. (U) On May 14, Prime Minister Noghaideli gave a short
briefing reiterating Georgia's commitment to a peaceful
resolution of the conflicts. He said that the GoG has
intensified its dialogue with Sanakoyev's government, but was
ready to talk with all parties. He accused de-facto
president Kokoiti of raising tension in the conflict zone and
called on the international community, including Russia, to
take a more active role in defusing the situation.

Comment
--------------

10. (C) It is not surprising that the de facto authorities
have gone on the offensive in the wake of Georgia granting
legitimate status to Sanakoyev; the question is how far they
are willing to push it. From all outward indications, the
Russians are attempting to restrain the South Ossetians.
During a lunch meeting with Ambassador and DCM May 11, OSCE's
Reeve received a phone call from Russian negotiator Yuri
Popov, who said Yuri Zubakov, deputy secretary of the Russian
Security Council, was attempting to contact Kokoiti to tell
him to "cool it." The best-case scenario is that the de
facto authorities feel they have made their point -- by
rattling sabers to show they remain a strong force -- and now
can begin to step back from the brink. A key sign that this
may be the case would be if they permit OSCE and JPKF
monitors back into Avnevi and the rest of the conflict zone.
The worst-case scenario is that they will launch even more
serious attacks in an attempt to provoke the Georgians into a
major conflict.

TEFFT