GOU'S ELECTION SURVEY SHOWS HUGE KARIMOV LEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 002089

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV SOCI UZ
SUBJECT: GOU'S ELECTION SURVEY SHOWS HUGE KARIMOV LEAD

Classified By: Poloff Steven Prohaska for reasons 1.4 (b, d).


1. (C) Summary: A document outlining the results of an
October 22-27, 2007 public poll--sponsored by Uzbekistan's
Center for the Study of Public Opinion--found that 92.7
percent of those planning to vote will vote for President
Karimov this December. None of his unwilling opponents
received more than 2 percent of the public's support,
according to the poll. The survey is probably best seen as
partly a propaganda effort to add legitimacy to the elections
and partly a Soviet-style "education" campaign. The document
was distributed to members of the GOU and has not been given
to the public to our knowledge, but Post acquired a copy of
the document privately. End summary.


2. (C) According to a Russian-language GOU document entitled
"Analytic Reference on the Results of a Public Opinion Poll:
Presidential Elections of the Republic of Uzbekistan - 2007,"
signed by the Director of the Center for the Study of Public
Opinion R.A. Ubaidullayeva, 92.7 percent of Uzbekistan's
voters planned to vote for President Karimov in the upcoming
presidential elections as of late October. The poll was
conducted from October 22-27 among 1,550 residents of
Uzbekistan's twelve provinces, the Republic of
Karakalpakstan, and the city of Tashkent. A summary of the
key findings appears below.


3. (C) The document outlines the main tasks of the poll as
including: revealing the level of public awareness about the
upcoming presidential elections and about the Law on
Presidential Elections; determining how ready the population
is to take part in the elections; revealing the priorities of
the electorate; and studying the media preferences of
citizens.

AWARENESS OF THE ELECTIONS AND ELECTION LAW
--------------


4. (C) The first question reads: Do you know that 2007 is the
year of the presidential elections in Uzbekistan? Of those
surveyed, 93.6 percent were aware of this. In Jizzakh,
Navoiy, and Khorezm provinces, 100 percent of those polled
knew this, while Ferghana, Namangan, and Bukhara had the
lowest levels of awareness at 91, 92.4, and 93 percent
respectively.


5. (C) The second question reads: When (date and month) will
the presidential elections take place? 84.4 percent of
respondents knew the date of elections.


6. (C) The third question reads: Do you know who, according
to our Constitution and the Law on Elections of the President
of Uzbekistan, has the right to nominate presidential
candidates? Of those surveyed, 82.7 percent knew the correct
answer, with the provinces of Ferghana, Surkhandarya, and
Jizzakh receiving the highest marks, (92.9, 92.4, and 89.2
percent, respectively) and Syrdarya, Bukhara, and Samarkand
provinces receiving the lowest marks (65.8, 74.3, and 75.3
percent respectively).

WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES?
--------------


7. (C) The fourth question reads: Do you know the names of
the presidential candidates nominated at the current time?
Of the respondents, 92.4 percent said yes.


8. (C) The fifth question, "Name the presidential candidates
nominated at the current time," was asked of those who
answered yes to question number four. Every respondent named
Islam Karimov. 39.3 percent of respondents identified
Saidov. 35.1 percent of those polled recognized
Tashmukhamedova. Rustamov, Dostmukhamedov, and Tursunov were
named by 32.5, 26.8, and 18.5 percent of respondents
respectively. (Note: Dostmukhamedov and Tursunov withdrew
from the race in November because they did not secure enough
signatures to be officially registered. End note.)

VOTING READINESS AND PREFERENCES
--------------


9. (C) The sixth question reads: Will you take part in the
upcoming presidential election in December 2007? 90.9
percent of those polled said yes, 6.5 percent were undecided,
and 1.6 percent of respondents were dead-set against
participating in the elections. Andijon, Navoiy, and
Namangan provinces had the highest level of intended
participation (100, 97.4, and 95.7 percent),while Khorezm,
Karakalpakstan, and Syrdarya (89.8, 90.2, 91.7 percent) had
the lowest intended turnout.


10. (C) The seventh questions reads: If the presidential
elections were conducted this coming Sunday, for which of the
nominees from the political parties and initiative groups
would you cast your vote? President Karimov received far and
away the highest percentage of votes among those polled, at
92.7 percent. Rustamov, Saidov, and Tashmukhamedova
followed, garnering 1.9, 1.5, and 1.3 percent respectively.
Dostmukhamedov and Tursunov each received 0.6 and 0.4 percent
of the intended votes, while 1.6 percent of respondents said
it was "difficult to answer."

ELECTION MEDIA COVERAGE
--------------


11. (C) The eighth question reads: To what degree do you
follow the pre-election presidential campaign? Of those
surveyed, 19 percent said "constantly," 73 percent followed
it "from time to time," and 8 percent did not follow it at
all. Navoiy, Ferghana, and Karakalpakstan had the highest
proportions of those who followed the campaign constantly, at
48.6, 36.6, and 25 percent. Of those polled, 22.6 percent of
respondents in Syrdarya, 16.4 percent in Kashkadarya, and
15.7 percent in Bukhara did not follow it at all.


12. (C) The ninth question reads: From what source of mass
media do you regularly receive information about the
pre-election presidential campaign? (Comment: Respondents
probably were allowed to cite multiple sources. End
comment.) The vast majority--93.4 percent of those
surveyed--cited state television. 20.8 percent mentioned
government press and 19.6 percent, state radio stations.
Nongovernment television, nongovernment radiostations, and
Russian mass media received 9.3, 4.8, and 3.9 percent
respectively. 3.2 percent of respondents cited independent
press, and foreign radio stations including "BBC" and
"Svoboda" received 0.9 percent. Lastly, 0.3 percent of
respondents cited foreign television such as Euronews and
CNN.

CONCLUSIONS
--------------


13. (C) The last section, entitled "Conclusions and
Recommendations," claims a high level of awareness among
Uzbekistan's citizenry regarding the upcoming elections.
Television was the most popular source of information, and
the Center recommended holding televised debates of the
presidential candidates to strengthen voter awareness of the
elections. The Center also advised strengthening all types
of information-educational work among the population to
familiarize citizens with the Law on Elections, and voting
rights, especially among young and elderly citizens. The
poll claims that a high enough percentage of voters plan to
take part in the elections, and voters looked favorably on
the diversity of candidates as evidence of Uzbekistan's
democratic development. Lastly, the results allow them to
predict "on solid grounds," that Karimov will score a
convincing victory in the elections. The high rating shows
the population's trust in Karimov during the years of
independence, the document states, and the absolute support
of a majority of the people of Karimov's political and
socioeconomic reforms.

COMMENT:
--------------


14. (C) The results of the poll come as no surprise. Over
the past month and a half, we have heard from numerous
sources that similar surveys were being carried out in
neighborhoods throughout the country. The results are
largely meaningless--levels of dissatisfaction with Karimov
and his government are clearly higher than reflected, but in
a system with no meaningful choice and no viable opposition,
few respondents are likely to give more than the expected
answers in a poll affording no anonymity. The poll is better
seen as a propaganda tool to convince some in the government
itself, and perhaps the rest of the populace and foreign
audiences, of the elections' legitimacy. The surveys also
can be seen as part of a Soviet-style "education" campaign,
something still fairly common here. Finally, it is
interesting that the percentage of those allegedly stating
they would vote for Karimov, 92.7 percent, is a tad more than
Kazakhstan's President Nazarbayev got in Kazakhstan's last
presidential election.
HANSON