MINI-DUBLIN GROUP ALARMED BY AFGHAN DRUG PRODUCTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TASHKENT 001988

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR INL/AAE ANDREW BUHLER AND JOHN LYLE,
EXBS FOR JEFFREY HARTSHORN;
DUSHANBE FOR INL RANJEET SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCRM EAID AF UZ
SUBJECT: MINI-DUBLIN GROUP ALARMED BY AFGHAN DRUG PRODUCTION

REF: TASHKENT 1705

Classified By: Poloff Tim Buckley for reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (SBU) Summary. The Ambassador and poloff attended a
meeting of the Central Asian Mini-Dublin Group on November 13
to discuss regional narcotics trends and donor country
projects. UNODC presented "an increasingly alarming trend"
in Afghanistan drug production and described "a record
harvest" in 2007 that amounted to USD four billion. UNODC
and GOU representatives highlighted increased drug seizures
throughout Central Asia, especially in Uzbekistan's
Surkhandarya Province and southwestern Tajikistan. UNODC
described a new proactive, intel-based counter-narcotics
strategy featuring border liaison offices and mobile
interdiction teams. The EU's Border Management Programs in
Central Asia (BOMCA) expressed pessimism about continuing its
border management work due to GOU inertia, and bilateral
status reports evidenced only modest counter-narcotics
assistance to Uzbekistan. Kamol Dusmetov, Director of the
GOU's National Center of Drug Control, noted Uzbekistan is
very concerned about about the new statistics from
Afghanistan and said it is "important to develop
international cooperation." The US is not the only country
to have encountered difficulty in implementing projects in
Uzbekistan in recent years, but the bountiful drug harvest in
Afghanistan seems to have the GOU's attention. Enhanced
cooperation is possible providing that projects are not
linked to more sensitive domestic issues. End summary.

Afghanistan Statistics
--------------


2. (U) The Mini-Dublin Group is chaired by the Italians and
the November 13 meeting was attended by a top GOU drug
official (Dusmetov) and other foreign diplomats from Russia,
Turkey, Israel, Japan, France, Czech Republic, Tajikistan,
and Germany. UNODC presented new data showing "an
increasingly alarming trend" in Afghanistan drug production,
including opium, heroin, and cannabis. In 2007 there was a
34 percent increase in opium production (8,200 tons),and the
"record harvest" included a yield of 42 kilograms per
hectare. The lucrative drug crops account for 53 percent of
Afghanistan's gross domestic product (GDP),amounting to USD
4 billion. Farmers in Helmand Province alone earned USD 500
million, according to UNODC's data, and the average annual
income for poppy-growing farmers is USD 3,933. The main
reasons cited for the increase were poverty, security issues,
lack of government control in some regions, and lack of
alternatives to poppy cultivation. Ambassador noted U.S.
concern about increases in poppy cultivation and opium
production and said this pointed to the need for the
international community as a whole to redouble its commitment
to support Afghan security and reconstruction.

Seizures in Central Asia on the Rise
--------------


3. (SBU) UNODC and GOU representatives noted that there has
already been a corresponding increase in drug seizures in the
Central Asian republics, especially in southwestern
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan's Surkhandarya Province, both main
transit points from Afghanistan and both high-priority areas
for future UNODC projects. UNODC data indicates 57 percent
of all heroin seized in Central Asia in 2006 was seized in
Tajikistan alone. Kazakhstan reported a 4,600 percent
increase in opium seizures between 2002-06. UNODC is worried
about the "Columbianization" of the drug trade, although
there has thus far been no evidence of major multi-ton
shipments. However, Dusmetov noted that the GOU has been

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making bigger seizures, including a major haul of 235
kilograms of heroin seized just days ago in a car which
traveled from Surkhandarya Province to Tashkent.

UNODC Hopes For Intel-Based Actions
--------------


4. (SBU) UNODC Senior Regional Law Enforcement Advisor Mark
Colhoun said the effectiveness of counter-narcotics programs
in the region has been limited due to a lack of
intelligence-sharing (see reftel). As a result, operations
are reactive and "many projects are done in isolation from
each other." In response, UNODC is focusing on a new
strategy highlighted by border liaison offices (BLO) and
mobile interdiction teams (MOBIT),which will supplement
projects to strengthen border security and be responsive to
intelligence. (Note: Post provided INL-funds for the first
border liaison office project, which will be implemented by
UNODC on the Uzbek-Tajik border in 2008. The USG was given
credit for this support at the meeting. UNODC called for
increased funding support for the Tajikistan portions of this
project. End note.) Meeting participants expressed high
hopes for the new Central Asia Regional Information and
Coordination Center (CARICC),which Colhoun heralded as "a
major step forward." CARICC, which would be similar to
Europol, has just begun a pilot phase of operations, but
Colhoun noted that its success will depend on the national
governments of each country. UNODC also called for
Afghanistan to formally be invited to join CARICC in order to
integrate as much information as possible in the
counter-narcotics effort.

BOMCA Pessimistic About Uzbekistan
--------------


5. (SBU) Pierre-Paul Antheunissens, Chief Technical Advisor
of the EU-organized BOMCA, noted there "are huge
administrative problems" that threaten the viability of BOMCA
programs in Uzbekistan. The GOU has still not signed a
necessary agreement to enable BOMCA to proceed with its
activities, and he is "very pessimistic" about the situation
but conceded "there is still small hope." Some earmarked
funds have already been redistributed to other countries due
to the delays and all BOMCA activity in Uzbekistan could be
stopped, including trainings, a precursor project, a drug
demand reduction program in Uzbek prisons, and an
awareness-raising campaign.

Bilateral Activity
--------------


6. (SBU) Diplomats from each of the countries presented an
overview of their bilateral assistance projects in
counter-narcotics, with a particular emphasis on Tajikistan
and Uzbekistan. In general, the donor scene is pretty quiet
in Uzbekistan, and it is noteworthy that our Embassy had more
tangible projects to report on than most others present
despite the chill in bilateral relations over the past few
years. European representatives generally indicated that
they are supporting multilateral programs, but given the
difficulties of such entities as BOMCA, this means there is
not a lot happening.


7. (SBU) France reported that they will be doing a precursor
project on the China-Kazakhstan border. Germany wants to
engage Turkmenistan "after the substantial political change
there" and will focus on drug "mules" who transport drugs to
Europe. Russia noted trainings at the Domodedovo Center in
the framework of the NATO-Russia Partnership, which will
continue with eight sessions in 2008. The Israeli Ambassador

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said they do not have relations with Afghanistan and are
mostly involved with agricutural or medicine assistance
projects in Uzbekistan. However, Israel would consider
supporting multilateral counter-narcotics assistance in
Central Asia. Turkey reported no projects in 2007 with
Uzbekistan, but highlighted training programs for Tajik law
enforcement officers at the TADOC academy in conjunction with
UNODC. The Japanese Ambassador mentioned the "Central Asia
Plus Japan" program and added that "drug prevention is a ripe
area for regional cooperation". Japan is also conducting a
seminar on criminal justice with Central Asia and plans to
provide x-ray machines to some border checkpoints. The
Czechs have no bilateral projects with Uzbekistan and
emphasized that Afghanistan is their major regional focus.
The Tajik Ambassador thanked the EU and particularly Germany
for contributions and exchange programs.

GOU Wants to Enhance Cooperation
--------------


8. (SBU) Dusmetov stated that the "increased flow of drugs is
very serious" and that "routes from the south are
predominant." He noted that foreign nationals are
increasingly smuggling narcotics through Uzbekistan and that
22 Afghans have been arrested this year. He discussed the
increase of large-quantity drug seizures in the past year and
lamented the societal consequences Uzbekistan has experienced
from drugs, including the spread of HIV to 11,200 registered
users, 45 percent of whom are drug abusers. (Note: Most
observers agree the actual number of HIV-infected people and
drug abusers in Uzbekistan is far greater than the official
statistics, but it is significant that Dusmetov recognized
the problem in his remarks. End note). Dusmetov stated the
GOU "cannot relax given this serious situation" and said "it
is important to further develop international cooperation."
He called for more border control and drug demand reduction
projects.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The GOU seems genuinely alarmed by the sobering drug
statistics coming out of Afghanistan and it would likely be
more receptive to drug demand reduction, border security, and
law enforcement training projects. Such projects suit the
GOU's interests and do not touch on sensitive issues it would
rather avoid. Dusmetov's remarks track with other hints we
have received from the GOU recently, yet it is unclear why
the GOU has been reluctant to sign an agreement with BOMCA,
especially now that the EU has softened sanctions.
Representatives from other countries also indicated that
counter-narcotics programs in response to the growing drug
threat from Afghanistan are a priority, yet it is clear that
the U.S. was not alone in scaling down assistance projects
over the past few years. Our presentation was an opportunity
to remind the GOU representatives and other diplomatic
colleagues that the USG remains a major player in the
regional counter-narcotics effort.
NORLAND